Is there "clarity" today?
Markets up 3.5%.
A few days ago the question was: "Why not wait for clarity?"
Is there clarity today? What changed? If POTUS becomes best friends with the Supreme Leader next week and markets are up another 10%, will you invest then? Post 14% rally? With clarity?
And if you do invest then and the conflict flares up again in two weeks?
There is no clarity. There never is.
If you are well diversified, running proper asset allocation or doing long term systematic investing, a 15% or even 30% move is not a crisis. It is the price of admission. You should expect it.
But many investors save 5% to 10% of their portfolio each year, or come into some money, or find their asset allocation has drifted for whatever reason. They face the question of when to deploy. For long term investments, good entry odds are all we can ensure. We shouldn't be too cute about it.
When odds are favorable, increase your bet. If they become more favorable, increase more. Don't think in binary terms. Don't ask "should I go from 60% to 80%?" Can you go to 62% then can you go to 68%? 75%? Gradually. Continuously. Without waiting for a clarity that will never arrive.
The only approach that reliably beats this is a systematic, rule based, pre committed allocation. And that works precisely because it removes you from the decision.