Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the global energy market now may be able to absorb the Strait of Hormuz disruption until around Labor Day (early September). He says lower Chinese demand, ongoing inventory drawdowns, and limited “dark” tanker transits through the strait, often at night with transponders off and done with U.S. military support, have bought the market time. Wirth however suggests actual flows from Hormuz may be closer to 3 million barrels a day, well below the 7 million claimed by the Trump administration.

RECAP: The Iran deal that looked "hours away" suddenly became a lot murkier. While Trump continued insisting a deal will be signed tomorrow and claimed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen immediately afterward, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly cooled expectations, saying there are no plans to sign tomorrow, though it could happen in the next couple of days. At the same time, details from the draft agreement are leaking inside Iran. And they're causing a political firestorm. Hardline figures and protesters are attacking Foreign Minister Araghchi, accusing him of giving away too much on sanctions, nuclear restrictions, U.S. troop withdrawals, and especially the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. Demonstrators gathered outside the Foreign Ministry, while reports suggest Iranian authorities are even censoring anti-deal criticism on domestic messaging platforms. The emerging picture is that the biggest threat to the agreement may no longer be Washington or Tehran's negotiators, but opposition inside Iran itself. Meanwhile, senior Israeli officials reportedly blasted the deal as harmful to Israeli interests and complained that Israel has largely been sidelined from the negotiating process. One official reportedly described it as a temporary political arrangement designed to buy time rather than a durable settlement. Diplomacy remains intense. Trump is expected to hold separate meetings with the leaders of Qatar, the UAE and Egypt on the sidelines of the G7 summit, highlighting how heavily Gulf states are now involved in shaping the outcome. Elsewhere in Europe, migration tensions continued to dominate headlines. Large demonstrations took place in Rome calling for tougher immigration policies, while Belfast saw counter-protests after recent unrest linked to a high-profile stabbing case. And in Washington, Senator Tom Cotton introduced legislation that would significantly deepen U.S.-Israeli intelligence cooperation, making it far more difficult for future administrations to limit intelligence sharing with Israel. The biggest story remains the same: everyone is talking as if an Iran deal is close, yet almost every major player involved is sending contradictory signals. Markets are betting on peace. The politicians are selling peace. The negotiators are still arguing over the details.

How does any person have any idea what is happening with Iran/US situation?! In an age of massive information availability, we have less knowledge, not more. I’ll say this - if there is NO deal on Sunday, I will have to listen more to the Iranians than the White House.

Going to go out on a limb and say both sides are exaggerating aspects of the deal that most favor their preferred narratives of victory, while downplaying areas where they have been forced to make concessions. Biggest risk is that the battle over narrative ends up delaying an agreement--one side might not like it if the deal is being spun more positively for the other side.

🚨 NEW: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told State TV the emerging U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is a roughly 1.5-2 page, 14-point document that has been negotiated for more than two months and reviewed line by line by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and military leadership. 🔸According to Araghchi, the first stage includes: ➤ A formal end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon ➤ A commitment that neither side will initiate a new war or use threats and force ➤ The lifting of the U.S. naval blockade ➤ A framework for the release of Iran’s frozen assets ➤ The Strait of Hormuz is addressed in the memorandum, with Araghchi saying Iran’s future management of the waterway “will be different from the past” and that services there “will no longer be free.” The arrangement for the 60-day period will be settled by the MoU itself, but other details may be finalized during the follow-on negotiations. ➤ Sanctions relief and reconstruction are raised as part of a reconstruction and economic development plan, but Araghchi says the full mechanisms on the matter will be agreed during later negotiations. 🔸 The Second Stage: ➤ Would consist of 60 days of negotiations toward a final agreement, with the possibility of extension by mutual consent. ➤ Araghchi says those talks will aim to resolve the nuclear file, including uranium enrichment and Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. ➤ He says the negotiations will also address the broader issues raised in the memorandum, including sanctions relief, the reconstruction and economic development plan, arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz, and other technical details. 🔸 On Hormuz (and Oman and China): ➤ He says Iran and Oman, as the two sovereign states bordering the strait, will continue to oversee its security and administration. ➤ Araghchi suggested that services in the Strait of Hormuz that have historically been provided free of charge, including maritime security and safe passage, the designation and maintenance of shipping lanes, environmental protection, and search-and-rescue services, would under a future framework carry fees. ➤ Araghchi says Iran has held close consultations with Oman, which he described as its principal partner on the issue, and that the two sides have reached “good results.” He said joint plans and a joint statement will be announced in the near future. ➤ He also says Iran has held expert-level consultations with other stakeholder nations, including China, noting that roughly 40% of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is linked to China because of its economic interests. 🔸Araghchi said the memorandum will be signed remotely in a “digital” format, with each side signing separately before a joint announcement, adding that an agreement could be finalized “within the next day or two, or within the next several days.” 🔗 Araghchi’s full remarks on Friday, translated into English by Drop Site News, are below ⬇️

Consistent feedback from trading desks has been that geopolitical volatility had paralyzed generalist funds from deploying and that at least in Canada, meaningful sidelined buying power exists, waiting for "the day after." The investment thesis was never the spike to $150 on tank bottoms and the depletion of the US SPR, it was then and remains now a sector discounting ~$65WTI with what we think will be a fundamental floor of ~$80 given: 🛢️record low inventories that will continue to fall further (regional tank bottoms US SPR at/near operational minimum levels) 🛢️~0.45MM Bbl/d of new demand for the next 3 years to restock depleted inventory likelihood of increases to SPR targets 🛢️productive capacity challenges with 80% of most production coming online within 1-4 months but "the last 20% is the hardest" = >2MM Bbl/d 🛢️A Strait of Hormuz under IRGC control will never return to pre-war levels and partial workarounds will take years 🛢️ Reasonable to think some element of a political risk premium?!? 🛢️$74WTI = yellow light now for US shale? Inventory challenges only accentuated under growth mode 🛢️pre-UAE joining the non-OPEC ranks, non-OPEC production was forecasted to be peaking in 2026 🛢️pre-war, UAE adjusted, OPEC spare capacity was only ~1.35MM Bbl/d half of that is 100% reliant on the SofH

Is this too optimistic, @aeberman12?

🇺🇸 America is now the #1 oil exporter in the world above Saudi and Russia. The same experts who said this was impossible are suddenly very quiet. Writers: Claudio, Oliver

🚨 BREAKING: THE WHITE HOUSE JUST BRIEFED US ON NEW DETAILS ON TRUMP’S IRAN DEAL… AND WOW! 🚨 WH Sources say Iran is READY TO SIGN, the TERMS are SET— now they’re negotiating a PLACE 🔥 THE DEAL? Iran is handing over the NUCLEAR DUST 🔥