terminally on ct
Joined May 2024
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May 20
prediction markets are not gambling
May 20
Hit me with the harshest reality truth.
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Jun 12
pov: you are retail and you are about to get wrecked
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Jun 12
focusing on sports and world cup is fine that’s where the liquidity is today
but the biggest prediction market winners won’t be sports-first
if prediction markets win sports, they become the future of sports betting
if they win everything else, they become the future of trading
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Jun 11
finally a prediction market ad that isn’t the same frantic bet on anything theme
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Jun 11
“pms, perps and privacy have reached their peak”
it’s like saying stocks are done the year nasdaq launched
bullish on collectibles onchain too but pms just started building the next decades infra and perps are barely getting going
Jun 11
one crypto vertical everyone currently is overlooking but i strongly believe it'll have a parabolic run next cycle is:
collectibles and card games.
yes, it's not going to be prediction market nor is it going to be perps and privacy infra.
pms, perps and privacy have reached their peak.
i don't see any crypto native pm beating polymarket and kalshi anytime soon. we're still going to be getting the normal fork already existing ones and create with a nice ui we've been seeing lately.
for perps, nothing new is going to happen on perps. most chains are finding ways to integrate perp as their core for the revenue and surely it'll get saturated. tho we might see 1/2 good drops from some of them but that will be it.
collectibles should be a major success depending on how well teams building around that sector are able to execute.
the pj on fluent @pumppalsTCG is doing something nice for nsfw creators. we will still see other pj and teams building for different sectors.
i actually thought its a path that some founders will look into the world cup but i've not seen any yet. a world cup collectibles game would've banged tbh, but most founders are focusing on the pm side of things.
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Jun 11
rocket markets is a super interesting consumer product
consumers earn yield taking simple positions on observable events without dealing with order books
meanwhile, platform could hedge exposure on prediction markets and potentially create a sustainable liquidity loop underneath
fun consumer experience on top, pms in the background
Jun 10
We wanted prediction markets with:
→ yield while you wait
→ crash-game tension
→ simple onboarding
→ clear triggers
→ no confusing flow
Couldn’t find it
So we built Rocket Markets. Beta soon
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Jun 10
this is good news for permissionless crypto in EU
protocols that are genuinely permissionless (no admin keys, no concentrated governance, no identifiable operator) keep the exemption
whilst everyone else gets pulled into MiCA
Jun 9
🚨NEW: EU TO REVIEW DEFI REGULATION
The EU has opened a public consultation on whether “decentralized financial services” should fall under MiCA.
But regulators struggle to define what decentralization means.
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Jun 10
copy trading bots dominate prediction market leaderboards but it’s far more fragile than in perp/spot trading
it’s easier to read intent in trading but a pm position contains far less observable intent than a perp position
a YES position at 60 cents tells you nothing about whether the trader has an information edge, is hedging something offchain, is a bot arbitraging the CLOB against a centralized venue, or is simply baiting copiers
position is context-free in a way a leveraged perp often isn’t
in pms, you need to know far more about the wallet before you can infer anything from the trade
otherwise you’re just hoping you’re not the exit liquidity
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Jun 10
what if pump go is more like a crypto consumer payment rail and not just a bounty chaos that’s apparently going to ruin crypto
instant escrow, instant payout, lower fees that twitch, youtube, or fiverr can’t ship and could trigger new consumer behaviors that compound across applications and onboard non-crypto users
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Jun 8
there is no bear market for prediction markets
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Jun 8
interesting opportunity for anyone watching operational futarchy @ridemarkets @MonkeDAO is the first real deployment
a nft community now has a mechanism for using treasury capital to make active trades through member calls and it rewards conviction instead of dao voting
anyone (not just monkedao holders) can back open calls by taking yes or no this creates a secondary market on top of the primary trade calls
must check if you wanna be early on futarchy thesis
We're excited to share that the MonkeDAO Vault is now live on @ridemarkets
A vault where SMB Gen2 & Gen3 holders make trade calls - and the Vault executes them with REAL capital.
More than a prediction market.
Every call is backed by vault capital.
🔗👇
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Jun 8
privacy as transaction hiding vs privacy as programmable computation
former is what most of ct still thinks privacy means, latter is where it’s actually going
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Jun 8
one universal prediction market platform won’t work
different categories trigger different regulatory frameworks, so platforms have to fragment by category to comply with each
we’ll see specialized platforms emerging and existing generalists splitting into category-specific products
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Jun 7
generates $8 a day but the team is still shipping
bullish or bearish?
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Jun 6
it’s really interesting ai-generated @Trueo_ rules look sharper than rules created by @Polymarket team on the same market
‘absence of proof doesn’t resolve to yes’ clause is a win bc zcash makes it cryptographically impossible to fully rule out past exploitation. without that clause traders could argue indefinitely about whether silence equals safety. polymarket doesn’t address this detail
trueo also specifies what evidence would count more precisely (turnstile accounting via future shielded pool upgrade, supply discrepancy confirmed through specific mechanisms). polymarket’s rules are broader and rely on ‘credible reporting consensus’ which is discretionary that has caused disputes before
so which is “better” question depends on what you’re looking for.
trueo wins on technical precision and resistance to resolution disputes
polymarket wins on accessibility and simplicity
Jun 6
Polymarket just produced a market for whether the Zcash bug had been exploited in the wild.
We created the same market yesterday.
I’ll let yall decide which rules are better.
FYI, I was able to generate our rules with a single prompt. And soon anyone will be to able as well.
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Jun 5
what changes this time is retail finally gets hedging institutions have always had
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Jun 5
.@Bubblegumdotfun consolidating liquidity into one token instead of splitting yes/no pools. interesting imo
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