Joined February 2011
2,247 Photos and videos
Alpha Architect, alongside our affiliated ETF Architect, has overseen 35 351 exchange launches, and every step of the way, weโ€™ve continued improving systems and passing cost savings back to investors. And today, weโ€™re proud to announce the next step.
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New Post: The Factor Zoo Has Hundreds of Animals โ€” But Only a Handful of Species alphaarchitect.com/factor-inโ€ฆ
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
We invited @SamHartzmark on our channel to put to rest the dividend debate once and for all. Okay, that's maybe a huge ask... But at least watch the episode and see for yourself!
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
This is literally insane. His PR was 13.01. He dropped 0.26 seconds in a sprint race to break the long standing world record by 0.05 seconds...in a prelim.
JA'KOBE THARP ARE YOU KIDDING ME ๐Ÿคฏ 12.75 โœ… NCAA RECORD โœ… WORLD RECORD #NCAATF x ๐ŸŽฅ ESPN / @AuburnTFXC
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
alley oop: etf.com/sections/etf-basics/โ€ฆ Fair warning: This is the most fascinatingly nerdy niche of the ETF market I've stumbled upon in years. It's gonna get CRUNCHY. ๐Ÿค“
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
As usual, read Owen.
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
new primer just dropped the SOFR-FF basis conks.plumbing/p/the-sofr-ffโ€ฆ
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New Post: Second Chance: Life with Less Student Debt alphaarchitect.com/student-dโ€ฆ
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Want to swap an old portfolio for shares of core U.S. equity without triggering a tax bill? Join me and @UseCache on 6/11 for a LIVE session on how investors may exchange legacy assets for shares in our latest ETF, the Alpha Architect U.S. Equity 4 ETF ( $AAUB ). Donโ€™t miss it! Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regiโ€ฆ Learn more: funds.alphaarchitect.com/aauโ€ฆ
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
BUBBLES AND DIVERSIFYING ASSETS As a large bubble inflates and creates the unbearable FOMO vacuum that sucks almost everyone in, the bubble causes people to sour on otherwise sensible, reasonably high expected-return diversifying investments. One of the signs of the bubble is the expected long-term real returns actually increasing on assets that aren't participating in the bubble. For example, during the 1999 TMT bubble, U.S. REITs, EM equities, EM debt, U.S. TIPS, Barclays developed gov't debt, and international small-cap equities were all shunned and had their expected returns grow to reasonable levels. You could lend money to Bill and George W. at 4% real because the market loved equities and there was no love left over for anything else! The price of these diversifying investments didn't go up or down much during the 1999 TMT bubble, even though fundamental values did steadily grow, which over time increased the long-term expected returns on these diversifying investments. Investing in those kinds of bubble non-participants doesn't really protect your mark-to-market relative Pโ€™nโ€™L during the bubble. Only being long the bubble can protect your relative Pโ€™nโ€™L from the bubble! However, investing in those diversifying investments does position you well for the bubble burst and deflation, as those investments work well during the deflation stage. Such diversifying investments during the bubble may make sense if you aren't confident about being better at timing the bubble than the next guy. Of course, those who believe they have the divine touch of market timing will plan to be long the bubble until they can see the eyeballs of the enemy and then rotate to these diversifying investments at the last moment. Godspeed to those of you, whom I know are numerous! Relating this to my framework about the stages of bubbles: Steps 5-8: - Diversifying investments become less correlated with the bubble. - Diversifying investments start producing disappointing returns. - Diversifying investments begin to have muted price reactions to legitimately good fundamental news. Step 9 and after: - Diversifying investments continue to produce acceptable absolute returns and start producing very good alpha. - Diversifying investmentsโ€™ past fundamental news will be reinterpreted more positively as new fundamental news arrives.
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THE LIFE CYCLE OF A BUBBLE 1. A genuine advancement creates real productivity gains. A real technological or economic improvement increases productivity and leads to genuine revenue and earnings growth. 2. Stock prices leak into reported profitability. Rising stock prices improve reported earnings, financing conditions, collateral values, and perceived business performance. 3. Reported profitability drives real investment. Companies increase hiring, capital spending, construction, expansion, and speculative investment because of their own or their customersโ€™ reported profitability. 4. Bubble beliefs and abandonment of present-value discipline. Investors stop focusing on discounted cash flows and begin relying on continuing gains from the greater fool theory, believing they can sell later at a higher price. 5. Inflows from sideline investors. Previously cautious investors enter the market in large numbers. New money from existing and new investors participation drive prices higher. 6. Extreme overvaluation. Prices rise far above historical normal multiples of reported fundamentals, even ignoring the fact that reported fundamentals have been driven by rising stock prices. 7. Issuance. Companies take advantage of high valuations through IPOs, secondary offerings, stock-based acquisitions, SPACs, and insider selling. 8. Exhaustion of inflows. The flow of new investors starts shrinking while existing investors approach their risk and leverage limits. Volatility and dispersion grow and gains become less uniform across stocks. 9. Earnings disappointments from slowing price appreciation. As stock prices stop rising rapidly, the earlier boost from higher valuations into earnings weakens or reverses. Companies begin missing expectations. 10. Stock-price collapse with high volatility. Confidence in both the fundamental growth and in the greater fool theory break down and prices fall sharply. Volatility rises further as leverage unwinds. 11. Bear-market rallies and progressively greater exhaustion. Bargain hunters and frustrated latecomers repeatedly buy the dips, creating violent temporary rallies that fail. Markets make lower highs and lower lows. 12. Capitulation, abandonment, and normalization. Bubble participants eventually give up in disgust or exhaustion. Volatility falls, valuations normalize, and the market returns to more ordinary behavior.
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
I wrote a new book... ๐—œ๐—ป๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐˜๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—”๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ: ๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฅ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฎ ๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿฑ๐Ÿฌ-๐—ฌ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐—•๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐— ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ธ๐—ฒ๐˜ Coming July 4, 2026 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Pre-order: amzn.to/4dOo2sB
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
"Winning over time doesnโ€™t mean winning all the time." Easy to understand, hard for investors to accept when they're in it... via @virtus
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Stocks are an inflation hedge? Are you sure? Seems like it all boils down to if the company can boost ROIC. ksestocks.com/blog/wp-contenโ€ฆ ht @JohnHuber72

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New Post: Trend-Following Filters โ€“ Part 10 buff.ly/q8eS0Zd
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
We are at Basis Northwest with @TaxAlphaInsider. Come say hi! @RyanPKirlin
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Wes Gray ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ retweeted
Dimensional Fund Advisors exploring sale @dimensional This will be atypical in the market Whoever the buyer is, will significantly impact the "story" of DFA going forward More to watch here...
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New Post: What Drives Investorsโ€™ Portfolio Choices? Itโ€™s Not What You May Think buff.ly/X4iVBvE
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New Post: When Everyone Trades the Same Factor Playbook alphaarchitect.com/factor-stโ€ฆ
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Updated Post: Long-Only Value Investing: Size Doesnโ€™t Matter! alphaarchitect.com/attentionโ€ฆ
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Updated Post: Why you should trust the investment process (even though itโ€™s hard) alphaarchitect.com/trust-theโ€ฆ
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