Views only my own | This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private | An economy is just people doing favors for each other | DMs open to follow
Joined October 2014
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16 Dec 2025
I just want to live in a high-trust community/society. Willing to make some material sacrifices. If you have some favorites, comment below!
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I like how he forgot about SPX. Going to assume flat.
Jun 13
My predictions for the rest of 2026:
SpaceX - down 70%
Dow - down 25%
NASDAQ - down 35%
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Whenever people start talking about wealth, i always think of Dogecoin. No rockets, no products, no cash flow, just pure, unadulterated 13B dollars of wealth (around 50B at peak!). Same could be said for Bitcoin - 3 trillion of wealth. Just a safe asset for people in need.
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For example, I engaged with Chat on an in depth discussion on cooking and changing my outdoor light fixtures. But for most things i simply don’t care, and only want to press a button. If I can’t press a button, the LLM is not worth it. I’ve got better things to do with my time
I wonder if hyper scaler CEOs are starting to realize that most normal people will never need to use the SOTA model going forwards.
The question then becomes: do I believe that I am in the business of creating god?
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I wonder if hyper scaler CEOs are starting to realize that most normal people will never need to use the SOTA model going forwards.
The question then becomes: do I believe that I am in the business of creating god?
I think we’ve reached the point where normal people can’t really determine whether new models are better than previous ones. Like Fable doesn’t seem that much better to me, but every 150 IQ person I know is like “wow the singularity came sooner than I thought”.
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Who can explain what is going on here? Is Iran willingly letting these go through? Or did people discover a loophole?
Jun 11
Qatar quietly sent two more LNG shipments through Hormuz on dark tankers 🇶🇦🚢
They both reappeared in the last day -- one near Oman, the other racing past Sri Lanka
So far, 11 LNG cargoes have left the Persian Gulf since the war began. That compares to 3/day before the war
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All I wanted was tax software where I could upload 20 k-1s and hit submit for 20 bucks, and instead I got “no, you cannot create this bioweapon”
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Another curious question - how many profit pools are protected by raw intelligence. I can only think of one: high end stat arb, maybe?
It's super easy to see how you can be 'too smart' for a lot of things in real life. Intelligence comes with trade offs. You can overthink things and get paralyzed, you can be overconfident in your assumptions, you can get side tracked into all sorts of side quests in pursuit of mental masturbation, you can work on all sorts of wrong things because application of your intelligence gets you. far in certain directions.
Why are we so sure that machine intelligence demand is infinite, with zero trade offs / drawbacks?
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Interesting analogy, except *wouldn’t* instead of couldn’t. And DJT has paid zero PNL cost for being wrong. Won two GOP primaries. GOP congress still enabling him.
So maybe not right analogy
DJT feels like an RV macro PM that still has a residual amount of a trade he couldn’t fully stop out of, and it annoys him that the trade is still on his sheet.
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This is some real dystopian stuff. It's time for web logging off for good.
AI can now read your customers' minds.
We raised a $20M Series A lead by 8VC & Lingotto to build this.
Introducing Minerva, built in collaboration with OpenAI:
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There's so many bad Financial advisors and CFPs out there, that sometimes I think that when I retire, I should just become a flat fee planner to help people out.
Just to improve the ratio of honest people to "I'm going to charge you an arm and a leg"
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It's a little wild to me that health care REITs are trading like the inverse of the QQQs over the last 4 sessions.
What market structure is causing this?
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Most of the people who follow me are married....but guys, please don't look to your dates/partners to entertain you.
Jun 8
Went on dates with guys who made >$700k and had wiki pages and the first thing they would complain about when they got comfortable on the date was that they didn’t like “dumb” girls they couldn’t talk to.
I found it strange that this man prioritized the ability to converse more than I thought because when we’d walk around in public, people would recognize him. It wasn’t just about looks.
I had one guy friend that would go on to make >$200k right out of college. And even when we were poor college kids, mid way thru a date with a cute girl, he made up an excuse that he had a work emergency come up at his part time job, paid the bill, and left.
He told me it was actually because he got super bored.
Had another man worth >$1M, self made, by his early 30s. He kept complimenting me on my side hustles and career. Said I understood because we were in the same fields.
There is a certain type of man that does care about looks but equally cares about the ability to converse if not more.
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Real estate investors in 2021/2022 were (marketed) mid-teens IRRs after a decade of incredible returns. Now they are facing 40% drawdowns and sometimes complete equity wipeouts (I am one of them!). When did they learn they were wrong? How did they learn what went wrong?
It's always possible to raise money if your investors believe the money has high teens ROI. Maybe GOOG and META will just issue 2% of their companies each year for the forseeable future.
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It's always possible to raise money if your investors believe the money has high teens ROI. Maybe GOOG and META will just issue 2% of their companies each year for the forseeable future.
RE in 2021 -- getting ready for the huge supply wave. Stocks in 2026. Getting ready for the huge supply wave.
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I vaguely knew that AVGO was a 2T company, so when I heard the 100bn revenue comments, I was like...must be per quarter right? Anyway, AVGO has some amazing profit margins.
Jun 5
More than half the S&P 500's total value is now in stocks priced above 10x sales. This was once considered an outlandish valuation, as it leaves little room for error. The list includes Nvidia, Apple, GOOG, MSFT, Broadcom, Tesla, Micron, Eli Lilly, AMD, Oracle and 57 more.
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Had to create a presentation for the first time in 5 years and OMG these things take a lot of time. No wonder people are hyped about AI streamlining.
Anyway, not real work.
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Um, is paying .75% standard for crypto trades? Lose .75% every time you trade?
You have to admire schwab for being so late to the party.
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Why did GOOG get such a monopoly over search? Youtube monopoly much easier to understand. Not clear to me that model that performs best at the frontier is the best at catering to your average user.
Google search started to become popular ~2001/2002?
But (according to Chat) newspaper ad revenue only started to secularly decline in 2006.
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