Similar curve to all technology. Sewing machines, computers, aqueducts.
The extrapolation of what you can with the tool is more important than the tool itself
Ironically, software engineers who entered the field less than five years ago are the worst off
I think we’ve reached the point where normal people can’t really determine whether new models are better than previous ones. Like Fable doesn’t seem that much better to me, but every 150 IQ person I know is like “wow the singularity came sooner than I thought”.