Nifty Price Action and Trade Plan for 12th June Nifty seems to be stuck between a rock and a hard place. The levels shared yesterday worked out perfectly till the very last hour. Nifty opened gap down and did not close a single 5 min candle below 23100 on a 5 min t/frame which was enough hint to go long with bullish price action with first target of 23180 and then 23240/300. However, we again had a sharp fall in the second half negating all the returns made through the day. It was a scalper's day like all the previous days this week. For details on OI analysis for tomorrow, refer to x.com/avipreet/status/206512… (Sourced from #SENSIBULL @abidsensibull ) Trading Plan for tomorrow As POTUS dilly dallies between bombing and not bombing Iran, Gift Nifty continues to entice both bulls and bears alike. At the time of writing this post, we are expected to open Gap Up 1. If we open gap up around 100 points or more, look for dip buying opportunities or price action around 23250 -23300 with targets of 23500/550 and then 23800. 2. For a flat opening, look for a range to form and look for a breakdown of 23150/23100 level or breakout above 23280 levels. These will be purely scalping trades 3. For a gap down opening below 23150/23100, will wait for price action to develop and monitor OI change before taking any decision. Risk to Reward is currently not favorable for short trades unless 23000 is broken down. Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

OI and FII/DII data analysis as of 11th June EoD. Data sourced from #SENSIBULL #NIFTY #nifty50 FII Data - Change in OI is slightly bearish. FIIs sold a calls and bought puts. FIIs slightly reduced shorts and bought ~780 cr in Futures. FIIs sold close to 1987 cr in cash. Also, net outstanding OI for FIIs remains bearish. Pro - Change in OI is very bullish. Pro bought good number of calls and sold small number of puts. However, net outstanding OI for Pro traders remains bearish Client - Change in OI is bearish which can be construed as bullish for the markets. The option chain itself has a bullish tinge to it with lots of put writing seen at key levels. Summary - Change in OI is bullish today. Today was 3rd consecutive day when FII reduced their future shorts although the quantum is still conservative. At the same time, this bullishness in OI and option chain is not translating to corresponding bullish price action as we continue to see a selloff in the second half in Nifty.

RT @Mtg231021: This is not, Indian investors are getting exhausted now.

OI and FII/DII data analysis as of 9th June EoD. Data sourced from #SENSIBULL #NIFTY #nifty50 FII Data - Change in OI is slightly bearish. FIIs sold a small quantity of calls and puts. FIIs slightly reduced shorts and bought ~800 cr in Futures. FIIs sold close to 2100 cr in cash. Also, net outstanding OI for FIIs remains bearish. Pro - Change in OI is neutral. Pro bought almost equal number of calls and puts. Also, net outstanding OI for Pro traders remains bearish Client - Change in OI is neutral to bullish which can be construed as slightly bearish for markets Summary - Given the dramatic fall seen in Nifty in the second half, the change in OI is surprisingly neutral. Also, FIIs reduced future shorts while cash selling continued but seemed to slow down today. Overall, very mixed set of OI and FII sell figure which puts us in a wait and watch mode for tomorrow. Key levels and trading plan coming up in next post.

#NIFTY analysis and trading plan for 10th June Today's price action in Nifty was a mirror image of the price action yesterday. We opened gap up around yesterday's high, pulled back to the critical 23100 level discussed yesterday and then went sideways. Yes, there was a last hour spurt towards yesterday's high, and we closed at 23242 forming a pin bar candle with 23100 as base. Trading Plan for tomorrow: 1. Opening between 23180 and 23280 - Look to take longs either on formation of a bullish engulfing or a W formation on shorter time frame between 23150-23180. Another trading opportunity would be breakout above the 23280 where longs can be attempted with targets of 23370-400. Above 23400, targets of 23500 and 23800 will open up 2. Opening below 23180 - If we open between 23070 and 23180, can play for a breakdown of the 23100-23070 level. Negative price action can be considered for taking short trades here for targets of 23000 and below. If we open gap down below 23070 , wait for breakdown of 23000 to 22950 zone. Positional bearish trades will get activated here 3. Gap up Opening Above today's high. Wait for a range and then play for breakout with a bullish bias. Bearish trades can be avoided in this case unless 23180 is broken down with negative price action. Key levels marked on charts. Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

OI and FII/DII data analysis as of 9th June EoD. Data sourced from #SENSIBULL #NIFTY #nifty50 FII Data - Change in OI is bullish. FIIs bought calls and sold puts. FIIs ever so slightly reduced shorts and bought 186 cr in Futures. FII selling continues relentlessly in cash as they sold close to 4566 cr. Also, net outstanding OI for FIIs remains bearish as seen in the red squares below Pro - Change in OI is neutral. Pro traders sold almost equal number of calls and puts. Also, net outstanding OI for Pro traders remains bearish as seen in the red squares below Client - Change in OI is bearish which is construed as bullish for markets in general. Client bought higher number of puts than calls. Summary - Since today was weekly expiry for Nifty, the change in OI is not important and more for an observation basis. Net outstanding OI is bearish as seen below but more weightage would be given to price action for tomorrow which is bullish Key levels and trading plan coming up in next post.

#NIFTY analysis and trading plan for 9th June (2/2) Given tomorrow is Nifty weekly expiry, will follow the below trading plan tomorrow Since risk to reward for short trades is not viable and price action does not support bullish trades, will be in scalping mode tomorrow. 1. If we open flat, will wait for price action around key levels. If we break today's low -23070, we are likely to test 23000-22950 zone where 23000 will act as a magnet for straddle writers. As long as we are above 23070, can look for reversal trades with targets as 23180 and then next targets as 23250 and 23400. 2. If we open gap up above today's high, will look for range breakout and range breakdown trades but with a positive bias 3. For gap down below 23070, will let price action develop but may not trade if risk to reward is not conducive. 4. Bank Nifty will be key tomorrow in deciding the trend for Nifty as well. At a portfolio level, will observe and stay conservative. May reduce leverage or trim portfolio while focusing on sectors which show relative strength with respect to index. Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

#NIFTY analysis and trading plan for 9th June (1/2) Nifty opened gap down today as expected around 23070 levels. It formed a bullish candle here on smaller time frame and worked its way upto 23250-23270 . It took resistance here and then went down to close at 23123 which is close to where it opened today. Today's resistance points are shown in the Nifty Spot (0.5 Fib Level) and Futures charts (Previous Day Low) today. Importantly, Nifty closed above 23100 but below the 23150 level which was discussed in yesterday's post. Nifty has formed an inverted hammer at a key support level. This will be factored in the trading plan tomorrow

OI and FII/DII data analysis as of 8th June EoD. Data sourced from #SENSIBULL #NIFTY #nifty50 FII/DII Data: FII - Change in OI is bearish. FII sold calls and bought puts. FII continued to sell in cash and futures segment. Added 1515 cr worth of shorts to existing Future shorts, sold close to 5555 cr in cash. Pro - Change in OI is bearish. Pro traders sold higher number of calls than puts Client - Change in OI is bullish which is construed as bearish for markets in general. Client bought calls and sold small amount of puts Summary - Change in OI today can be considered bearish. FII and Pro Sell numbers today are also bearish. #NIFTY analysis and trading plan will be posted in some time.

#NIFTY analysis and trading plan for 7th June We are likely to open gap down around 23000 levels on Nifty given the down move seen in the US markets on Friday evening. Gift Nifty is currently pointing to 360 points gap down. The next 2-3 days are critical for Nifty and other indices as well. Trading Plan Post a gap down, there will not be many opportunities to immediately go into a trade. So, will need to wait and watch for price action to develop. Will focus on Nifty levels 23000-23100. If these levels show positive price action and supportive put writing, will wait for further confirmation before resuming trades. Will only do intraday scalping trades on the positive side. If 23000 is broken at a day close level tomorrow, we are most likely headed to 22000 and below unless some dramatic external event causes a positive trigger. Will still be cautious and take intraday scalping trades for tomorrow on short side if negative price action develops. At a portfolio level, will observe and stay conservative. May reduce leverage or trim portfolio while focusing on sectors which show relative strength with respect to index. Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

OI and FII/DII data analysis as of 5th June EoD. Data sourced from #SENSIBULL. FII/DII Data: FII - Change in OI is slightly bearish. FII sold calls and bought puts. However, the quantum for both is not very high. FII continued to sell in cash and futures segment. Added 471 cr worth of shorts to existing Future shorts, sold close to 8800 cr in cash. FIIs have sold close to 32000 cr in the first week of June itself in cash. Pro - Change in OI is bullish. Pro traders bought higher number of calls than puts Client - Change in OI is bearish which is construed as positive for markets in general. Client sold both calls and puts but sold higher number of calls Summary - Change in OI is neutral and not representative of the big down move witnessed in US markets on 5th June.

4th June end of day #NIFTY analysis for 5th June Another grueling day for #NIFTY traders, but this time for the directional ones 1. Nifty opened gap down, immediately took support at 23250 and ground its way up to a previous resistance of 23450-460. 2. To further compound misery of option buyers, #NIFTY Futures were lagging Nifty spot throughout the day. This meant that Nifty call premiums were not increasing when Nifty was going up. Even at EoD , while Nifty closed up a royal 11 points, Nifty futures closed in the red (-4 ). In summary, today's trading range was entirely within yesterday. This narrow range accompanied by a dip of 2.5 pct in VIX meant that option buyers had a poor day especially in #SENSEX which had a weekly expiry today. So, while yesterday's bullish undertone was not lost, nothing was gained either. Towards the end of the day. we did see a spike in call premiums but treat this as an observation at best for now. Let's look at data inputs available as of end of day today 1. Change in OI is neutral. No clear trend seen here as FIIs sold equal number of calls / puts. Pros bought equal number of calls and puts. However, outstanding OI for both FII and Pro traders remains largely bearish. The sell figures for FIIs in futures and cash continue to be negative. 2. Price Action - As pointed out yesterday, Bank Nifty had a follow up day on its positive price action confirming the bullish hammer. Nifty closed slightly above the dragonfly doji but this cannot be construed as a confirmation yet. In summary, price action can be considered neutral to positive going into tomorrow. 3. External factors a) Positive news coming through on the US- Iran war front (for the nth time) with Trump signaling progress on peace talks. Crude has dipped as a result. Can be construed as positive b) RBI Event - This may be the game changer for giving us a trendy market tomorrow. While the expectation is of a non-event, it will be worth tuning into the RBI Governor speech at 10 AM IST. If there is no change to interest rates, the tone of Gov speech is not very hawkish and there is relief provided via any regulatory step(s), Bank Nifty will rally and give Nifty the opportunity to cause a good short covering rally. (All stars have to align). However, if there is any increase in interest rates which is highly unlikely or any hawkish note for inflation in his speech, we may see a bloodbath in the markets. Trading Plan for tomorrow 1. Wait till 10:30 am (or end of Governor speech) before committing to any trade. Markets may be volatile at the open, prior to and during the speech. Once a trend is observed, will trade in direction of the trade. For me, immediate Nifty target is 23800 and 24000 which may be taken out tomorrow itself if the global cues remain positive and supported by the RBI Gov speech. I will book my positional trades partially at 23800 and rest at 24000. I continue to trade with a positive bias as explained in earlier posts on X. 2. Below, 23150, I will wait for negative price action and take bearish trades with targets of 23000 and below. I will be looking at Bank Nifty for cues tomorrow in order to establish a trend. 3. If we open Gap Up, will do nothing and wait till 10:30 am and decide on levels based on price action. May book partial profits for ongoing positional trades if we open at 23800 by any chance. For Gap Down, again will do nothing and wait for 10:30 am and trade per price action. Key levels for Nifty shown below. Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

3rd June end of day analysis for 4th June Today was a brutal day for #Nifty traders and overall markets in general. On such days, one feels lucky to be on the right side of the index move and risk management skills are tested to the core. The analysis posted yesterday at x.com/avipreet/status/206186… did not really hold good apart from the fact that we did see a complete V shape recovery from the last support level mentioned in the post i.e. 23150. Also, the index did end with a bullish undertone. There were multiple factors at play today: 1. Overnight, tensions flared between Iran and other ME countries with fresh reports of Iran attack on Kuwait coming in. 2. Bloomberg published a news article stating that RBI may have sold some #Gold assets to stabilize INR 3. IT Index was down and out with bellwethers #TCS and #INFY down 9 pct (at one point of time) and 4.5 pct. 4. FII sell numbers were already negative as of yesterday. Inspite of all of this, NIFTY somehow showed a mercurial recovery from the 23150 gap fill level. This was something that fellow traders @rathi_amit , @HiteshRandhawa were rooting for and it happened. Hats off to them! While the sharp recovery came at the back of a resurgent Bank Nifty ,a RBI clarification and a #LTCG waiver rumor all of which could not have come in a minute too late, it still left a sour taste for folks who were both long or short as it ended up eating stop losses on either side. So, where do we go from here. 1. Change in OI - Neutral to Bullish as seen in the OI change snapshot from #SENSIBULL Pro Traders change in OI is bullish today 2. Price Action - Positive Nifty ended the day with a dragonfly doji on daily tf. Construed as positive. Nifty's biggest constituent Bank Nifty ended with a Bullish hammer forming a double or rather triple bottom defending 53000. Bank Nifty could lead the way now and surge ahead pushing Nifty as well Directional View - Positive on Nifty, again will stay long with immediate targets of 23800 once the 23500-550 zone is crossed. If today's low 23150 is broken, will look to short intraday with target of 23000-22900. Positional view is still long. Note: All of the above is my own analysis and trading plan for Nifty and other indices, this should not be construed as trading advice in any manner.

#NIFTY 2nd June end of day analysis for 3rd June 1. Good bullish candle formed today at key gap fill support level. Today's low should be SL for those who chose to take positional longs. For conservative bulls, 23350 should be partial square off level. Price action points to bullish continuation for tomorrow. 2. Outstanding OI for next expiry has a bearish tinge to it, given the huge bullish positions for Client vs bearish positions for FIIs. [Shown Below] However, I will choose price action to carry more weight for day after expiry. Directional View - For a gap down scenario, look for bullish reversals around 23370-23420 zone. I do expect some consolidation around 23500 zone, once we sustain above 23500 comfortably with a 15/30 min close, next target should be 23800 where the next resistance should come in. Key Levels marked below For a flat opening, look for a breakout above 23600 levels for 23800 as immediate target. If 23350 is broken on the downside, expect 23230,23150 to be tested before the next target of 23000. I will be trading with a bullish bias for tomorrow up to 23800 where I will review. Of course, standard disclaimer of external overnight event applies which will invalidate this view. #NIFTY #NSE For how the 2nd of June expiry analysis played out today, refer to x.com/avipreet/status/206178…

@in_tradingview @tradingview Gus you have stooped to a pathetic level. My premium plan is valid till 2028 and all of a sudden you have downgraded it without any intimation. Now i cant store than 500 symbols in any watchlist against 1000 nos earlier. @thechartist26 @iManasArora