I tweet about valuations, stocks, and occasionally Bayesian stats

Joined March 2018
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Solid-State Transformers Part 5: $ENPH vs $SEDG vs Others x.com/bayesian_lad/status/20… Last week, I discussed what SSTs are trying to solve for and how a few companies are looking to deliver a solution. Today, I want to compare them against each other (1/24)

Solid-State Transformers Part 4: New Challenger Meets Incumbents x.com/bayesian_lad/status/20… Before comparing the $SEDG design and $ENPH design side-by-side, we need to understand how the current leaders might address SSTs. This thread does that (1/15)
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One of the reasons I feel like I've fallen behind wrt AI adoption is that I haven't figured out how an agentic system would work for fundamental analysis. I have some saved prompts which I'll use for any ticker, but past those, the questions and direction of research are a lot more subjective. I suppose I have a defined start point (help me understand the business) and end point (value the stock and recommend buy/sell/hold with price targets), but how I get from start to finish isn't standard. Furthermore, if investing is mainly driven by building conviction, just having an agent iterate on my behalf won't really help in that regard. Additionally, I've found that if you don't make sure an AI tool takes factors into consideration, it can easily leave out key information from its analysis. I'll share a case study later today. Maybe I'm misunderstanding agentic workflows period. Curious to hear how others are using AI in their investment processes
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Days like today are what make hedging/being sidelined increasingly hard to justify. Not sure how long this pump holds, but I'm surprised at how quickly Trump pivoted on the Iran attacks. Still important to stick to your process, but the short term is still mainly headline driven
I really should have hedged lol. Worst red day ever for me by a long shot. TBF I still think any dips won't last too long, but I've been wrong many times before
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I'm a long-time $SPWR bull. The rev, breakevens, and cash flow projections are all straight from company materials. The one point I disagree with is the dilution point. I have not seen anywhere that dilution is expected to slow down (1/4)
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(1/5) Something big is happening at $SPWR. Bookings were stuck in the 1,200 – 3,000 range in '25, and its revenue run rate was $300 mn. Bookings have now surged to 4,000 in a seasonally weak period, and dollar bookings now exceed SPWR’s market cap.
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TJ has stated he wants to do 1 more this year. Keeping cash gives him more leeway in case shares aren't as enticing to sellers. This also ignores the de-listing risk as well as the accounting issues the company faced (3/4)
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IMO upside is much greater than downside at these prices, but $10 is an insane target. Nothing feels impossible in this market, but a lot of things would have to go exceptionally well just to give people belief. I remain long $SPWR, but know the risks before you buy. GLTA, and DYOR (4/4)
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Most likely won't get the full 2nd half filled. Still hoping to add some. Nice to see the strength on this generally red day. Got access to the replay, so hopefully will be able to watch later this week. I like what I'm seeing. GLTA, DYOR
Added a little $EVLV today. Investor day is tomorrow, so I bought half of what I wanted and will decide on the other half tomorrow. Unsure if I'll be able to watch the webcast but will def share key updates I hear
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$PLMR Not sure why this one seems to rise when the AI theme broadly fades. I don't consider it an anti-AI name. Not bad about it, just wish I could explain the price action better
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Work has been rough the past few weeks. I didn't have as much time as I liked for screening new ideas, but I'm trying to get back on track. While I have current holdings which I view as good buys, 4 ideas I'm digging deeper into are $BBCP, $CDNL, $TWIN (Twin Disc, not the crypto), and $HNGE. The first 2 are tied to the data center construction theme, the 3rd is a potential defense play, and the 4th is in the biotech space (1/2)
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I can't stress how important it is to always be reading and learning, even when there isn't a pressing reason to. If I get through these, $RXRX and $RLAY are up next. GLTA, and DYOR (2/2)
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Added a little $EVLV today. Investor day is tomorrow, so I bought half of what I wanted and will decide on the other half tomorrow. Unsure if I'll be able to watch the webcast but will def share key updates I hear
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If you think biotech is going to be a big winner from here, IMO $KE is a turning into a major picks and shovels play
I believe this next wave of Bio is going to be bigger than anyone can imagine. Multiple $10T companies. Maybe even a 100 Trillion dollar company.
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I really should have hedged lol. Worst red day ever for me by a long shot. TBF I still think any dips won't last too long, but I've been wrong many times before
Part of me really wants to hedge today, but part of me also thinks there's no way Trump doesn't try to get markets to ATH going into July 4th (America's 250th no less). No much of a thesis, but that's what my gut is saying
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Bayesian Lad retweeted
NEW: Fidelity lowers the minimum account requirement for the SpaceX IPO from as high as $500,000 to just $2,000.
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Part of me really wants to hedge today, but part of me also thinks there's no way Trump doesn't try to get markets to ATH going into July 4th (America's 250th no less). No much of a thesis, but that's what my gut is saying
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To the other 5 $PLMR investors on here, it took me too long to realize that El Nino fears might be the reason the stock is so suppressed. TBF, it makes sense. If a super El Nino increases west coast flood risk and uncertainty of rains in the heartland, that's 2 $PLMR segments (flood and ag) that could take a hit. I'm conflicted since IMO this is still a compounder in the making trading at a discount, but I don't expect sentiment to change until uncertainty around El Nino fades
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$NXT boosting rev and EPS guidance off the back of Prevalon acquisition. Nice little bump to start the morning
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Trimmed a small amount of $AEHR this morning. Plan is to hold the rest through next earnings unless critical new information comes out
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Can't decide if this $PPSI move is a delayed reaction from the Prymus win or some news that hasn't broken yet. Not mad at all, just confused
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