Joined September 2017
3,842 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
This will be an ongoing thread with the worst Bitcoin treasury takes 👇
10
6
41
13,115
223 cents of volatility. Closed not at par. For Sharpe ratio we're working on a better, not so narrow KPI $STRC
4
1
26
2,389
Lets be conservative with a 10-year CAGR of 30%😬
Replying to @parkeralewis
How about a 10-year scenario with these conservative assumptions - - $BTC appreciating 30% annually - Annual $SATA issuance to maintain 40% Amplification - No $ASST issuance to purchase $BTC - Dividends funded through $ASST at 1.5x mNAV - No dividend rate change for $SATA - Exiting at 1x mNAV
5
38
4,197
This is the results of playing financial games with 3 different stakeholders (common/prefs/btc):
Accretion depends on the metric. Net Assets per Share measures balance sheet strength and residual asset value. BTC per Share measures Bitcoin intensity and long-term equity upside. NAV accretion improves asset coverage. BTC Yield accretion increases Bitcoin per share. $MSTR $BTC
1
12
655
Prediction: $MSTR back to par before $STRC
2
11
885
Saylor running back the ‘digital credit’ narrative for $STRC up next
My beliefs: Retweets are notifications, not endorsements. Constructive dialogue leads to better outcomes. Bitcoin is hope and economic empowerment for everyone. Every good-faith effort to strengthen the network should be welcomed.
1
4
753
Madoff 20 years ago: "What happens if the markets keeps going up? Your entire thesis seems to require stress in the underlying markets." Do Kwon 4 years ago: "What happens if LUNA keeps going up? Your entire thesis seems to require stress in the underlying crypto markets." Number Go Up ALWAYS is the (only) solution to any ponzi adjacent fund/stock/token
Replying to @jdorman81
What happens if Bitcoin keeps going up? Your entire thesis seems to require stress in the underlying asset. If BTC appreciates substantially, leverage falls, NAV expands, capital raising gets easier, and the pressure on both MSTR and the preferreds declines. “There are risks” is obvious. “Someone has to die” is a much stronger claim that requires a much stronger case, from a much better risk manager than you.
2
3
29
2,215
The mental gymnastics from $MSTR bulls is something else.

ALT Respect Hats Off GIF

2
6
239
Mixed bag in here: 🚩cash add-on too low to have an impact (<1 month) 🚩MSTR holders diluted (non-accretive) ✅ avg price $65k decent for Saylor standards
7
12
1,744
Im guessing ~$150m BTC buy at $70,185 avg $850m in cash addon to get cash runway to 12 months
8
1
35
5,271
Decent avg price at $65k, add to cash reserve should have been 10x higher. Too little too late imo.
2
360
3200 BTC buy @ $70,185 incoming
3
889
Looks like a BTC buy incoming from Saylor Which implies he used the $MSTR ATM If there is no sizable cash-add on that would be bearish. 1b cash add-on -> bullish.
1
2
999
This is getting more likely now
If Saylor announces a 'regular' BTC buy from MSTR ATM on monday, it likely is at $70k as it's very often monday/tuesday top of range ($68k - $74k) as his avg price. Market won't like this scenario
1
647
Monday Saylor $MSTR scenario guesstimates: 1. 'Regular' MSTR ATM, BTC buy, no cash add-on, high avg price -> Very bearish 2. Bigger (1b ) MSTR ATM, all cash add-on -> bullish 3. Biggest (~2b) MSTR ATM, mostly cash add-on BTC buys -> most bullish scenario imo 4. MSTR ATM bigger (~500m ) BTC sells for cash add-on -> neutral 5. Big (1b ) BTC sell for cash add-on > bullish? 6. Small (<500m) BTC sell for cash add-on > bearish What did I miss?
6
1
30
5,267
If Saylor announces a 'regular' BTC buy from MSTR ATM on monday, it likely is at $70k as it's very often monday/tuesday top of range ($68k - $74k) as his avg price. Market won't like this scenario
5
20
3,147
$MSTR management selling $15m worth of shares yesterday What a vote of confidence again🤡
36
30
269
34,174
512 cents of volatility. $700m of selling. As designed. $STRC
3
6
62
3,999
Shitcoin minimalist retweeted
Replying to @AlexesNakamoto
Saving this one for when $STRC trades sub $90.
1
5
553
Interview with Saylor from 2 weeks ago, worth watching with $STRC down to $91 on less then 1 billion of volume.
The Q&A got really interesting when someone asked: “What happens if a huge leveraged unwind dumps billions of STRC onto the market?” Saylor’s answer was basically: That’s literally what the instrument was designed for. He said if STRC trades down 50-100 basis points, billions of dollars of capital are incentivized to step in and buy it back toward par. “If you push the ship down, there’s more force pushing it up.” Most people still think this is a normal preferred stock. They’re engineering an entire digital credit system around Bitcoin.
6
5
16
6,509
What Saylor SHOULD have done instead of selling 32 BTC: 1⃣ Sell 20k Bitcoin @ $75k 2⃣Add $1.5b to cash reserve 3⃣ Have 18 months of cash runway again 4⃣Report on monday, we sold 20k bitcoin, price didn't care, cash back up to 18 months, all good 👍
9
2
58
5,166