Below average winter rainfall likely
The Bureau have released their long range rainfall summary for AU, and for the South West Land Division its not painting a great picture.
After some solid starting rains for much of the region post TC Narelle and other rounds of thunderstorm activity, May has not delivered much if at all, and the next 3 months we are looking at a 60% to 80% chance that rainfall is likely to be below average for south-western AU. The dry signal over the three‑month period is heavily driven by stronger probabilities of below‑average rainfall emerging later in the season more so than earlier in the winter season. This is evident when analysing the monthly chance of above median for June and July, which is signally generally average rainfall for the month.
Over south-west, this rainfall forecast from the Bureau's ACCESS-S model is generally consistent with forecasts from most international models, which also show drier than average rainfall. However, the extent of the dry signal is generally larger in other models.
What are your thoughts on these long range forecasts and how might it affect you?