I’m more excited about FSD 12 than I’ve been about any prior FSD Beta. I’ve been pessimistic every time @elonmusk tells us they would solve autonomy “this year”. (Long tail of 9s) Tonight’s livestream convinced me we could see a limited Tesla Robotaxi service launch within a year

Main Street: Thank God Google’s search business is so profitable, it can forever subsidize my Waymo rides. Wall Street: Waymo has positive unit economics in SF. -- JMP research report: Waymo has 63% cash contribution margins. The vehicle & sensor capex is large (~$150k/vehicle), so accounting for their depreciation, contribution margins are just slightly positive. Today Waymo operates at just 35% utilization, vs Uber at 55% in NY. Waymo should achieve higher utilization than Uber over time. If Waymo operates at 55% utilization, that’s an incremental 58% revenue at high cash contribution margin. The IRRs on the upfront vehicle & sensor cost go from ~0% to 30% . There’s also an expectation the vehicles and sensors get more affordable. All of this ignores operating expenses (R&D, G&A, centralized mgmt), but suggests Waymo can profitably scale its fleet.

California regulators just approved a huge Waymo expansion: all the way down the SF penninsula and a big chunk of the LA metro area. cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-web…

The new Waymo operating area in California!

SFFD said it best: When you hear or see a siren, be like the Waymo Driver. We’ve worked hard to improve its performance around first responders, and we’re thankful for the continued appreciation!

We’re excited to announce 𝗚𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗶: @Google’s largest and most capable AI model. Built to be natively multimodal, it can understand and operate across text, code, audio, image and video - and achieves state-of-the-art performance across many tasks. 🧵 dpmd.ai/announcing-gemini