Reporting on AI and the future of the economy. CS masters degree from Princeton. Subscribe to my newsletter (Understanding AI) and podcast (AI Summer)!

Joined March 2008
4,040 Photos and videos
I need to replace my iPhone. Should I get an iPhone or something else? What's the best Android phone right now? Is there an "AI phone" I should get?
20
17
12,137
Timothy B. Lee retweeted
With all the controversy this week about silent degradation of Anthropic models, I think it's interesting that no one mentions that Google does something similar to prevent distillation
9
22
161
10,960
Business idea: S&P 498 index fund — the 498 largest companies not run by Elon Musk.
3
2
47
6,085
Timothy B. Lee retweeted
lol AI still can't even count the numbers of letters in words. bubble confirmed
3
8
75
5,988
To put this question more precisely: what fraction of SpaceX's $2T market cap should I credit to space data centers/x.ai, Starlink, and commercial launch services? Any other significant revenue streams?
Where can I read the most compelling case for investing in SpaceX?
2
13
3,350
If you think cities have a history of giving companies unduly generous aid packages to entice them away from other cities (and I do), then you could view the data center backlash as a way to stiffen the spines of city leaders and help them negotiate better deals.
what if the whole data center issue just gets settled by "counties who want data centers will cut deals and get them and those that won't, won't" wsj.com/us-news/education/th…
14
2,278
Where can I read the most compelling case for investing in SpaceX?
11
10
8,873
1
I'll lay down an A.I. marker (so that I can be proven wrong when Claude talks me into Daniel Dennet's theory of consciousness): I don't believe that "superintelligent at persuasion" will ever be a meaningful phenomenon. astralcodexten.com/p/my-ai-o…
3
17
6,292
"Slop" is our generation's "spam."
1
1
18
1,864
Timothy B. Lee retweeted
This week, we’re joined by @binarybits to discuss the newest innovations in self-driving cars, their success on the west coast and in the Sun Belt, and why they may be coming to a city near you very soon. bit.ly/3XRMEtA
1
3
1,324
I too wish I could turn this stupid "feature" off.
I am so fed up with products I pay for polluting the user interface with AI-related visual clutter Google Docs now has a Gemini button hovering with no way to turn off. I do NOT want it or need it. How can I get rid of it @OfficialLoganK? I am fed up with these growth hacks
3
30
7,523
Timothy B. Lee retweeted
Good discussion of AI's impact on copyright: "The high cost of reimplementation was a load-bearing piece of the open-source ecosystem." --@grimmelm to @binarybits aisummer.org/p/james-grimmel…
1
3
1,223
Timothy B. Lee retweeted
Public opinion is amazing theargumentmag.com/p/new-pol…
23
53
305
86,122
I am also confused about this.
Jun 10
I hate to reveal how dumb I am but it sure would help to hear more about exactly why people think Anthropic stealth-degrading a particular class of queries is so pernicious (besides “this will be annoying for my own research” which I have seen & acknowledge)
6
27
8,469
Timothy B. Lee retweeted
This from @asteriskmgzn is one of the best examples of adversarial collaborative dialogue I've seen. @ajeya_cotra and @binarybits map out why they disagree about AI timelines and what would be the early warning signs that each is wrong. asteriskmag.com/issues/14/ho…
1
8
31
9,115
Timothy B. Lee retweeted
How long will it be until AI systems can sustain their own existence – with factories, robots, and power plants? METR's @ajeya_cotra thinks it's likely within 10 years. She believes that cognitive capabilities are the main bottleneck, and that AI is closing that gap fast. Understanding AI’s @binarybits thinks the median timeline is 50 years. He thinks the physical world is difficult to automate, and that it always takes longer than we expect.
3
3
12
2,250
Timothy B. Lee retweeted
Replying to @binarybits
@binarybits I explained the thinking here x.com/TheAmolAvasare/status/…

Replying to @TheAmolAvasare
Want to be very upfront about the subscription rollout (Pro, Max, Team, seat-based Enterprise). We're giving users Fable 5 within subscription limits for 2 weeks, and then we're taking it away. Here's exactly what's happening and why:
4
1
18
12,202
What is Anthropic doing here? This rollout program is so goofy.
13
4
206
32,664
I wish people writing about AI consciousness would distinguish more clearly between a model and particular instances of that model. The analysis seems pretty different depending on what you're talking about.
7
30
3,451
We need to do better debunking charts like this but also states should change their election laws to prevent this kind of jump by allowing most/all mail-in ballots to be counted before election day.
We need to do better debunking this chart, though anybody can ask an AI like @grok to do it. There are four fundamental problems: 1. big cities like Milwaukie, WI are heavily Democrat, often at a 2:1 ratio, in all states (swing state or not) 2. Trump supporters avoided mail-in ballots, so mail-in ballots favored Democrats also by a 2:1 ratio, in every state 3. some states (including Wisconsin) have rules saying that you cannot open mail-in ballots before election day, which causes late counting 4. big cities could not handle the load, and either didn't finish until 3am (like in Milwaukie) or had to send workers home for the night and continue the next day (like Atlanta and Detroit) As a consequence of this, the Milwaukie County (mostly the city of Milwaukie) did not finish counting mail-in ballots until 3am, and because the two 2:1 effects mentioned above, favored Democrats 4:1. That's what you see in that big jump where suddenly Biden catches up to Trump. It's completely explained. Indeed, that this was going to happen was known ahead of time, discussed in the news under names like the "blue wave" or "red mirage". Steve Bannon is caught on tape before the elect saying how Trump can exploit this to claim the vote was rigged -- which Trump did indeed do in order to justify his Fake Elector scheme. We have other ways of verifying this. You can look at Wikipedia for the 2016, 2020, and 2024 election results in Milwaukie county. This confirms that the total number of votes, and distribution of votes, were roughly the same in all three elections. If there a hundred thousand fraudulent votes, you'd see that fact in those numbers -- but you don't. By the way, we are seeing the same effect in the Las Angeles Mayor's race right at this moment. Republican avoided mail-in ballots, so late-counting of those ballots are breaking for the two Democrats in this race, pushing the Republican down from second place (early reporting) to maybe third place in the final tally. Only the top 2 go onto a run-off election. It's not fraud, it's just mechanics. People ask why can't they be like Florida. It's because Florida counts mail-in ballots BEFORE election day. In such states, the first counts favor Democrats with Republicans catching up as in-person votes are tallied throughout the evening. Different states have different laws.
4
1
15
4,626