For anyone who has been puzzled by the (rightly respected)
@parkeralewis claiming that the math of BTCTC valuation should imply a discount to BTC, and who were not able to reproduce the same result in their own financial calculations, here
@ColeMacro lays out the misconceptions in the framing being used. Be wary when people talk of "the math" but can't or won't show their calculations. Many such cases.
Parker, your framework is still inaccurate, and the conclusion it produces is fundamentally misleading.
To be clear, I do not think you are intentionally trying to mislead people. I think the issue is that the return attribution framework you are using is not internally consistent.
This is also not an isolated issue. Across your commentary on this topic, there has been a consistent pattern of mixing frameworks, comparing unlike metrics, and then drawing conclusions that do not actually follow from the underlying analysis. I do not think that is malicious, but I do think it is a serious analytical problem.
I have done performance and return attribution work for the largest pension fund in the United States, and I have worked with some of the largest and most sophisticated asset managers in the world on exactly this type of analysis. This is not how institutional return attribution is done.
Your claim is that nearly $38 billion of common equity was raised over the period, and that the weighted average price paid underperformed Bitcoin.
But once you introduce a weighted average equity issuance price, every other part of the analysis has to be treated consistently.
That means you also need to calculate the weighted average date of that equity issuance. You cannot take a weighted average issuance price across the entire period, then compare returns from the beginning of 2024 as if all of that equity existed on day one.
By your own framework, most of the equity holders you are analyzing did not even exist at the beginning of 2024. So using the beginning of 2024 as the return start date for that capital is simply the wrong math.
Because much of Strategy’s equity was issued later, and at higher prices, the weighted average issuance date will be pulled meaningfully forward. That matters. A lot.
If you want to build the strongest version of your own critique, the correct analysis would look something like this:
1. Calculate Strategy’s weighted average equity issuance price over the relevant period.
2. Calculate the weighted average issuance date for that same equity.
3. Calculate the Bitcoin price using the same cash-flow-weighted timing.
4. Then compare performance from that weighted average date, using internally consistent assumptions across equity issuance, Bitcoin, and the relevant return period.
That would at least be a coherent, apples-to-apples analysis.
But that is not what you are doing.
What you are doing is taking one metric on a weighted average basis, then combining it with a return period that starts before much of the capital was actually raised. That is not return attribution. It is a mismatched calculation that produces a misleading answer.
The institutional way to analyze this is either to use total return from a fixed start date, such as the beginning of 2024, or better yet, since the inception of the strategy in 2020.
Or, if you want to analyze capital raised over time, use a cash-flow-weighted framework that matches each equity issuance to the correct date, price, and corresponding Bitcoin price.
But you cannot mix the two frameworks. You cannot use weighted average issuance economics on one side of the ledger and a fixed-date return from 2024 on the other side. That is precisely how you get the wrong conclusion.
My view remains that the proper framework is total return over the period, ideally from the inception of the strategy. If you want to use 2024 because that is the period you are focused on, then use 2024 consistently. If you want to analyze equity issuance over time, then cash-flow weight the entire analysis consistently.
Right now, your critique does neither.
That is why I believe your analysis is inaccurate, fundamentally wrong, and misleading. Again, I am not saying that is intentional. I am saying the framework itself is flawed, and the math does not support the conclusion you are drawing.