The large scale Israeli invasion of Lebanon has begun. , This invasion is significantly larger in terms of manpower and organization than the 2006 Lebanon War. It is the largest since 1982. Here is what we know so far:
1) Divisions 162 and 98 are expected to join the fighting, on top of divisions 36, 91, and 146 already operating across the border. Five divisions means this is a serious war.
2) The IDF is expected to advance through three main corridors: the Western Sector (Ras al-Naqoura), the Middle Sector (Aita ech Chaab), and the Eastern Sector (Khiyam).
3) The army's stated objective is to prevent Hezbollah from being able to fire anti-tank missiles and rockets into Israeli territory. It appears more likely the goal is to permanently secure the area south of the Litani or even the Zahrani rivers.
4) The IDF has expanded evacuation orders to Lebanese residents south of the Zahrani River, roughly 40 km from the Israeli border. About 13% of Lebanon's territory is now under IDF evacuation orders.
5) There is an element of coercive diplomacy involved. Israeli officials have indicated that Israel and Lebanon may hold direct talks in the coming days. The Lebanese state has expressed a willingness to negotiate to end the war, even as Hezbollah continues its strikes.
6) Israel is applying the Daheyia Doctrine, which uses overwhelming, disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure in areas controlled by Hezbollah to deter future attacks. However, they plan to use this increasingly against Lebanese infrastructure to coerce Lebanon into a deal.
There is no clear exit strategy for this war. While in theory Israel is trying to coerce Lebanon into disarming Hezbollah, it is unlikely that can happen. Last time Israel sent this many troops in, they remained trapped there for 25 years.