Ran the full wheat desk today, fresh CGC Week 44 data, US crop ratings, global stocks, and an independent AI cross-check. Verdict: Canada 18 HOLD, US 30 BULLISH.
The pipeline math: prairie farmers are delivering 22% LESS than last year while port shipments run 7%. Country elevator stocks dropped from 54% to 42% of capacity in two weeks. The system runs out of grain before it runs out of demand. Add Manitoba’s flooding, ~$50M of farmland damage in one storm.
South of the border it’s worse: winter wheat at 25% good/excellent (down 29 pts), Kansas at 15%, abandonment talk at 35–40% vs a normal 5–7%. And with urea at $620/t, next year’s crop gets smaller too. Watch Friday’s WASDE. The ceiling to respect: Russia is still shipping 47 MMT.