VIX traders were increasingly net-short volatility looking at the recent COT data. Yet asset managers had a bearish view on Russell 2000, while retaining strong bullish conviction on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. USD long bets also surged at their fastest weekly pace in 6 years. VIX Traders Unphased During Wall Street Pullback | COT Report stonex.com/en/insights/vix-t…

Record short yen exposure ahead of this week's BO meeting, long bets on the USD surged - but the macro backdrop may have changed in light of potential peace in the Middle East. US Dollar Longs Surge, Yen Shorts Hit Record High | COT Report forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

A decent start to the week for risk, though with the Dow just below its record high and ASX near an options cluster - bulls may want to tread with caution around the current daily highs. Nasdaq 100 Leads Wall Street Rebound as Middle East Peace Boosts Risk forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

The Australian dollar dipped its toe into the upper 60s last week, although for now it is not ready to commit to a break below 70c. I still think a move to 69c is in order, but whether it is via direct losses or an interim bounce is likely down to how far policy expectations divergence between the RBA and Fed this week. I doubt RBA have the appetite to signal the end of their hiking cycle (even though many suspect the have) - therefore a hawkish hike could be in order. As what the RBA could do vs what they actually do aren't always aligned. Peace deal headlines continue to be farcical so not really on my radar tbh. Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Finds Stability Ahead of RBA, FOMC forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

EUR/USD is pointing higher for now, but I'm not convinced it will last - as that assumes an actual deal to get over the line in the Middle East. EUR/JPY looks interesting for a potential swing high, though it is down to MOF/BOJ as to how deep it could retrace, or if it does at all. Solid rally on EUR/AUD needs a slight pullback ahead of its next leg high. Euro Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

Middle East peace hopes sparked a broad risk-on rally across financial markets, lifting equities and metals while weighing on the US dollar. The shift in sentiment pushed USD/JPY below the key 160 level and helped AUD/JPY rebound from support, although both moves remain highly dependent on whether a formal peace agreement ultimately materialises. Japanese Yen Outlook: Middle East Peace Hopes Sink USD/JPY, Lift AUD/JPY forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

Gold has fallen over 10% already this month. Given it's only exceeded that once this century, short bets are falling and we have a big fat 4,000 support level nearby - the path of least resistance could now be higher. Gold Plunges Beyond Seasonal Expectations, Yet Bearish Bets Are Falling forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

AUD/USD is back below 70c, and there is a strong case for a move to 69c at a minimum. That said, there is a decent cluster of technical support around current levels - something bears may want to fact in before chasing yesterday's move at the lows. Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Cracks 70c, Options Signal More Pain forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

Nasdaq 100 volatility spikes as VXN posts its largest rise since November. Futures positioning had already signalled rising risk. Nasdaq 100 Volatility Erupts as Futures Positioning Warning Plays Out stonex.com/en/insights/nasda…

Woodside Energy has caught my eye. Crude prices obviously a factor here, but price action on WDS is teasing some sort of trough to my eyes. Note the high volume bar during the narrow consolidation just above the 100-day EMA / $30. Sneaky bit of accumulation?

Clearly not the best start to the month for the Aussie - and we're not even halfway through. But relative to its broad gains since last April, a pullback was arguably needed. And that could leave further downside for the Aussie in general in the coming weeks. But with 70c nearby a cheeky bounce could be due, ahead of a move down to 69c. Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Tighten Grip with 60s in Sight forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

While the USD rally looks strong and likely to at least probe its May high, it has paused for breath ahead of US inflation figurers. Regardless, dips seem likely to favour bulls in the current climate. And odds of a soft CPI report seem low. US Dollar Rally Pauses Ahead of CPI as FX Majors Diverge forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

It has been five weeks since Japan's Ministry of Finance (MOF) last intervened. Yet with USD/JPY grinding its way back towards the late-April intervention level, the risk of a pullback is growing. Coupled with record net-long exposure among large speculators, the conditions appear to be falling into place for another round of intervention. USD/JPY Bulls Push Their Luck - YouTube youtube.com/watch?v=-CujeJdC…

SPI futures flat overnight having found support around May lows, and the ASX 200 cash market has a decent options cluster at 8600 - so perhaps it can post a mild bounce. That aside, perhaps a move down to 8500 could be on the cards. ASX 200 Under Pressure as Tech-Led Risk Aversion Spreads forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

Yen shorts surged to a record high among large speculators, before NFP knocked it out of the park and USD/JPY continued higher. MOF may be having tea and biscuits for now... but they tend to act when everyone's dropped their guard. Short Yen Bets Hit Record High, AUD Nears Net-Short Flip | COT Report forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

Bearish momentum was unleashed for the Aussie dollar on Friday when another strong Nonfarm Payrolls report boosted the odds of another Fed rate hike. This saw AUD/USD break decisively below 71c, bringing my 70c target within reach. But with the RBA likely having reached the peak of its tightening cycle and expectations for further Fed hikes resurfacing, AUD/USD could now be on course to revisit the 60s. Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bears Tighten Grip with 60s in Sight forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

NFP beat expectations for a third month, with its 172k print bringing the 3-month job increase to 565k. Unemployment remained low and flat at 4.3%. We had already seen ISM reports point to resilient growth and elevated inflationary pressures, with the NFP figures serving as the icing on a hawkish US dollar cake. Fed fund futures are now implying a 46.6% chance of a 25bp hike in September. With USD/JPY rising above 160, will MOF be forced to take action again this week with the yen? This article is from Friday, but still relevant. Japanese Yen Outlook: Volatility Perks Up Ahead of NFP for USD/JPY and AUD/JPY forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…

Forex.com Market Analyst @cLeverEdge breaks down the technical outlook for NQ futures, key support and resistance levels, and what futures positioning reveals about market sentiment. Could this pullback create a buying opportunity, or is a deeper correction underway? Read full article: forex.com/en-au/news-and-ana… The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. All trading involves risk. Trading CFDs is not suitable for everyone and can result in losses that exceed deposits. Ensure you understand those risks before trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For full disclaimer, refer to our website. #Nasdaq100 #NQFutures #USStocks #TechStocks #Trading

I suspect Nasdaq futures can hold 30k for now and lead to a cheeky bounce. Though given its 35% rally since its march low, perhaps its due more than a 3-day pullback sooner than later. Also note the rise of shorts among large specs and relatively high level of gross longs among asset managers on the futures market. Nasdaq 100 Futures Slip as KOSPI Leads Tech Selloff Across Asia forex.com/en-us/news-and-ana…