@capconstrained profile picture
capconstrained @capconstrained
Joined April 2012
  • Tweets 10,868
  • Following 2,924
  • Followers 432
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capconstrained
@capconstrained
7 Dec 2024
I believe in America. America has made my fortune.
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UAE Announcement: If backwardation increases on this announcement, it will enable Treasury to increase selling time spreads if that's their strategy. Otherwise, nothing burger in the short run.
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Feels to me, every $ higher for WTI increases the risk of Alberta seceding.
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Schaefer Watch: 61.46% xG post Olympics according to NST @domluszczyszyn @datadomNY
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My crazy trade proposal: Sorokin and Mayfield for Skinner and Bouchard. Who says no? #Isles #Oilers
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So much coverage of Shein.
Financial Times
@FT
30 Apr 2025
The fast-fashion company is searching for workarounds as Trump’s trade war endangers operations in its most important market ft.trib.al/1ftiyKh
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capconstrained retweeted
Financial Times
@FT
30 Apr 2025
The fast-fashion company is searching for workarounds as Trump’s trade war endangers operations in its most important market ft.trib.al/1ftiyKh
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capconstrained retweeted
Jennifer Ablan
@jennablan
29 Apr 2025
Goldman’s Solomon Says Markets Will ‘Settle Down’ After Disorder via ⁊@business⁩ bloomberg.com/news/articles/


Goldman’s Solomon Says Markets to ‘Settle Down’ After Chaos

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon said he believed that activity in mergers and public listings will find a comfortable level despite uncertainty that’s led to a slowdown...

bloomberg.com
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Very positive Mopane comments during the $Galp.ls call. Farmout by 4Q25. Reiterated 10bn barrels ooip.
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Those who have advocated for MMT and/or Vol Suppression should be expunged from anything to do with the financial markets, the US Economy and the US Government.
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capconstrained retweeted
Michael Kao
@UrbanKaoboy
6 Apr 2025
China is the only country that the US has an Economic Statecraft goal to economically hobble, because of China’s own Unrestricted Warfare on the US over the last several decades. I believe these Tariffs are designed to force RoW to pick sides and that Trump 2.0 is banking on the US Carrot of 30-35% of Global Consumption to win most of the converts. x.com/urbankaoboy/status/190


Michael Kao
@UrbanKaoboy
4 Apr 2025
Replying to @UrbanKaoboy
It seems to me that the Trump 2.0 Tariff Strategy is ultimately aimed at cinching off all escape valves for China. If we play it out to the limit, let’s say we Balkanize into regional blocs and China tries to power through with their Runaway Assembly Line Top-Down model without the US Consumer. If the US succeeds in blocking off transshipment opportunities with these Global Tariffs, without the US Consumer as the end market, they will just wind up hollowing out the PBOC balance sheet as it bails out uneconomic businesses, churning out goods no one wants. Result: Spectacular CNY implosion.
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Suppressing US Consumption is a feature not a bug of current policy
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Asset Inflation, particularly housing, robs future generations of their standard of living. Total Factor Productivity induced deflation is the best safeguard for future generations standard of living.
Fugitive Caesar
@ThomBrady5
15 Mar 2025
Boomers have been in power for 40 years and the economy is designed around inflating their assets at the expense of younger generations
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I'll refrain from commenting on my favorite stock because every time I do, it goes down. I'm King of the Mushes.
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No better target than $APA
zerohedge
@zerohedge
11 Feb 2025
*ACTIVIST ELLIOTT BUILT OVER $2.5B STAKE IN PHILLIPS 66: WSJ First BP, now this: finally the activists are coming for energy, by far the most shorted sector on Goldman Prime
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So sad. Cutting the government workforce is a great macro tool when labor mkt continues to be ‘tight’. Also will raise labor force productivity.
Peter Baker
@peterbakernyt
29 Jan 2025
Trump's assault on the federal government has been a campaign of breathtaking scope and relentless velocity, a blend of personal and political as he seeks revenge against perceived enemies while demolishing the foundations of the modern liberal state. nytimes.com/2025/01/29/us/po

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Affordable New Home Construction is very valuable to first-time homebuyers. Public Builders have the product mix to meet this demand. $MHO
Lance Lambert
@NewsLambert
28 Jan 2025
#NEW U.S. homebuilding market share controlled by publicly traded builders rose to 53% in 2024 Giant homebuilders continue to eat up market share Data via @AliWolfEcon Chart via @ResidentialClub
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Seller in $SEUSF is relentless. Buyers need to chop a lot of wood. $SEI.v
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Hillbilly? Paisan, I prefer to call myself an Italian Redneck.
Charlie Spiering
@charliespiering
17 Jan 2025
JD Vance's tailor is Romualdo Pelle — a 90-year-old Italian immigrant in Ohio
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Just 10 years ago we had a fair amount of barge traffic on the Hudson carrying oil b/c no pipelines. If there is an arb, Americans will figure it out. If Midwest Refiners pay up for heavy oil, it will get there. No matter how devious the plans, America will muddle along and figure it out.
capconstrained
@capconstrained
17 Jan 2025
Replying to @Big_Orrin @AlekseyBu
Extend a rail line to shorten the distance. Once we start arguing about the minutiae like this, we are talking about a long war of attrition and I'll bet every day of the week that the US has deeper pockets and more capability in figuring out. Alberta well have a huge problem.
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