doge is good analog for this cycle
2021 was absolutely batshit insane with how high we pumped altcoins, covid crash directly into never before seen fed-assisted economic stimulus
this cycle has been lower highs across board for most altcoins, and liquidity has flowed elsewhere (cont.)
simultaneously believe that we have seen the peak of crypto price action driven purely on speculation about future growth, and also that we are entering the most bullish period for businesses augmented by blockchain rails
"revenue meta" being a term is just reflective of how far distanced from reality crypto markets have traded the past decade - difficulty is in determining how to best get long this new trend, it is apparent that this will be isolated to individual apps that achieve pmf and not broadly across the board to anything with a token
two main drivers of majority of revenues in crypto:
- users willingness to absorb high fees because of how much speculation is present w/ users trying to hit home runs
- efficiency & low-cost of blockchain rails compared to traditional systems
we are near peaks of the former and will see more success stories focusing on the latter,
@solana has dominated both of these verticals interestingly enough and still think its valued way too low comparatively to other assets for how much activity occurs here in the space
also cool to see teams like
@inversion_cap that realize how transformative blockchain rails are while also being pragmatic enough to realize that it may be more efficient to improve existing businesses with distribution rather than build everything from the ground up
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nvda ($176) is up 1600%, palantir ($182) is up 3000% (3x from april tariff lows, now 400B mcap), market has shown that these were the main assets leading price action for risk past few years, believe that it's difficult for crypto to look as attractive if stocks have better risk profiles with better liquidity and also better returns - this is whats most concerning to me atm because seems like many have assumed that stocks going up just also means crypto going up as money moves down the risk curve and im just not sure that is the case, imo you will need to be even more picky w/ asset selection in this market than previous years
am not a believer in:
- doomer thesis of the USD hegemony collapsing as the reason people will need to get all of their money out of the stocks within the traditional finance system and into altcoins
- stocks going up means crypto will go up
- that we haven't short term topped because we haven't had a blowoff top / parabolic price action
- 4 year cycles
am a believer in:
- stablecoins will extend USD dominance globally to levels never seen before
- investing in good businesses and assets will continue to yield supernormal returns
- crypto will be foundational technology for a ton of businesses over the coming decade
- market cycles
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dont agree with rate cuts being the main driver for bull market continuation, is clear to me that we do not need lower rates for bull market price action as we've seen with how stocks & crypto have performed since late 2022
it is evidently clear that current situation with economy & inflation is most bullish for gold and silver than any other assets, gold has been up only since Powell indicated that they would begin cutting rates during Jackson hole, ((i cant believe i actually have to pay attention to "real rates" but alas here we are))
trillions of dollars sitting in money market funds are not going to start aping fartcoin whilst already up 1000x because the fed is now concerned enough with the economy to cut rates, it looks like it is just flowing into gold & silver
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dunno why i typed all of this when i rely on squiggly lines for 90% of my decisions anyway but yea looks like stocks are parabolic, momentum slowing on crypto assets, & we're entering period of most uncertainty we've had in awhile wrt economy
expecting lower over next ~6 months and higher into back half of 2026 through 2028
would flip bullish on crypto if solana weekly close > $250, bitcoin weekly close > $120k
optimal strat atm is to sit majority in cash & have ape stack set aside for researching new launches & finding outliers w/ momentum in price action (ex.
$PUMP /
$IP /
$ASTER )
want to bid $90k btc, $25-30 hyperliquid, undecided on sol & pump
sidenote: i am immensely underallocated to stocks & think cat is right ab top blasting google regularly, will likely talk a lot more ab them moving forward on here