Ten countries have now crossed 50% EV market share.
Not cities. Not regions. Ten countries. Across four continents.
What's remarkable is that just three years ago, Toyota Chairman argued EVs would be limited to around 30% of global new vehicle sales for the next 100 years.
It's 2026.
#1 Norway ~98%
#2 Denmark ~82%
#3 Nepal ~76%
#4 Ethiopia ~60%
#5 Sweden ~59%
#6 China ~57%
#7 Uruguay ~57%
#8 Netherlands ~55%
#9 Iceland ~51%
#10 Finland ~50%
The prediction came from Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda.
But this is about more than one bad forecast.
It's about what happens when incumbents cling to the old world, an empire built on internal combustion, oil and fossil fuel nostalgia, while exponential technologies keep improving in the background.
As disruption accelerates, the dominoes are likely to fall faster and faster, making even Norway's transition look slow in hindsight. The difference today is that global supply chains are now being reshaped by electrification.
Most models assume vehicles simply age out. What they often miss is the collapse of supporting ICE infrastructure. As EV adoption rises, you start seeing fuel station closures, dealership retrenchment, fewer mechanics, parts shortages, rising insurance premiums and weaker resale values.
At some point, owning an ICE vehicle becomes increasingly inconvenient and expensive.
The real disruption may not be EV adoption itself. It may be the economic death spiral that makes ICE ownership progressively harder to justify, much like what happened to film cameras, DVDs and landlines.
Tesla, Chinese automakers and Transport as a Service (TaaS) only accelerate that process. As younger generations increasingly choose mobility on demand over vehicle ownership, fleet turnover could accelerate even further.
The transition won't be driven solely by people replacing old cars with EVs.
It will also be driven by fewer people feeling the need to own a car at all.
Slow. Then sudden.ā”š
#Bettrification