If you're bullish oil, this is exactly the type of price action you want to see. Crude oil still playing out its volatility contraction pattern and setting up for an explosive move up within a couple weeks. Institutions accumulating in size, while weak hands get rinsed. You can see this with the volume drying up as supply runs out.

Almost no one uses this chart correctly... but it's one of the best ways to tell if a move up will continue or fail. The answer becomes very apparent for the current $QQQ and $SPY move when you look at the internal structure under a different light: This is a daily chart of the percentage of $SPY stocks above the 50 day moving average. I removed the candlesticks because what matters most is not the actual raw percentage, but the interaction between its own moving averages. Specifically the 10ema🟠 and 200sma🟢 for the percentage itself. The last time the 10ema struggled to get above the 200sma following a deep move in breadth was Feb 2025 prior to the tariff selloff. We are seeing that same failed expansion pattern happening right now. Conversely, in order for a move up to fully sustain, the 10ema needs to slice above the 200sma with absolute ease like it did back in May 2025 during the recovery. That is clearly not the case currently. This doesn't necessarily mean the exact top, but when internal momentum stalls against long-term moving averages while also making lower highs, it's worth paying attention to.

$NVDA : A Climb Into Thin Air NVDA has now printed 24 consecutive monthly candles below average volume, all during its multi-year ascent. Meanwhile, its average volume has been in a steady decline. This stark bearish divergence is a major red flag. Analogs: > $CSCO (2000): Nearly identical behavior throughout its 1997-2000 run-up, during which 29 out of 36 months closed below average volume, including the last 17 consecutive months. This prolonged period of low volume preceded its massive dot-com liquidation on high volume. > $MSFT (2000 & 2025-Current): Same pattern, with rising price on thinning monthly volumes prior to both the dot-com peak and its ongoing 2026 correction following its Oct 2025 peak. > $NVDA (2022): A similar low-volume run-up (2019-2021) preceded its deep 2022 correction when it finally saw volume expansion on the sell side. Technical Outlook: Multi-year ascents built on persistently below average volume are structurally fragile and eventually run out of oxygen. Without a transition to consistent above-average buying volumes at the monthly scale, $NVDA remains highly susceptible to a significant correction if selling pressure accelerates in the backdrop of $SPY and $QQQ weakness and continued rotation towards defensive, low-beta sectors. Technical study for educational purposes; not financial advice or a trade signal. (8ema orange / 21ema purple / 50sma yellow / 150sma blue / 200sma green)

Just like in June 2000, $QQQ is merely postponing its death cross until several months from now. (Take a look at Sep 2000)

$NVDA : A Climb Into Thin Air NVDA has now printed 24 consecutive monthly candles below average volume, all during its multi-year ascent. Meanwhile, its average volume has been in a steady decline. This stark bearish divergence is a major red flag. Analogs: > $CSCO (2000): Nearly identical behavior throughout its 1997-2000 run-up, during which 29 out of 36 months closed below average volume, including the last 17 consecutive months. This prolonged period of low volume preceded its massive dot-com liquidation on high volume. > $MSFT (2000 & 2025-Current): Same pattern, with rising price on thinning monthly volumes prior to both the dot-com peak and its ongoing 2026 correction following its Oct 2025 peak. > $NVDA (2022): A similar low-volume run-up (2019-2021) preceded its deep 2022 correction when it finally saw volume expansion on the sell side. Technical Outlook: Multi-year ascents built on persistently below average volume are structurally fragile and eventually run out of oxygen. Without a transition to consistent above-average buying volumes at the monthly scale, $NVDA remains highly susceptible to a significant correction if selling pressure accelerates in the backdrop of $SPY and $QQQ weakness and continued rotation towards defensive, low-beta sectors. Technical study for educational purposes; not financial advice or a trade signal. (8ema orange / 21ema purple / 50sma yellow / 150sma blue / 200sma green)

$FRO just put in a textbook bearish reversal monthly candle - the highest volume monthly candle in over 3 years. Major caution warranted for crude tankers at this juncture, as a prolonged multi-year downturn looks highly probable if this candle plays out. Technical analysis below. cc: @ed_fin @mintzmyer

$BTC During almost the entire uptrend from April to October 2025, $BTC had below average weekly volume. Conversely, during this current downtrend from October, BTC has been consistently above average weekly volume. This bearish divergence in volume suggests large-scale distribution during this downtrend setting up for further significant downside. Additionally, there is about to be a monthly 8/21 bearish cross. For context, the last monthly 8/21 bearish cross was in June 2022. Even if BTC does make a move up, it would face significant resistance at 82-83-84k, where significant moving averages are currently stacked together - 21 week ema / 21 month ema / 8 month ema. Without significantly above average volume, greater than the February weekly volume at a minimum, it is likely to reject around these levels for another leg down. Given that the prior bottoms for BTC have been overshoots of the 50 month sma, it seems reasonable to think BTC might do the same for its next bottom. Given the extended pattern of the most recent top, BTC might take awhile to actually reach its bottom, longer than one might expect. A possible area for BTC to bottom would be the 25-35k range, near the prior mid-2023 confluence of price action and the monthly 50 sma / 21 ema / 8 ema. Additionally, during this downtrend, BTC made a significant move down on high volume. This kind of move is resembles a high tight flag, just in the bearish direction. Of note, BTC went down 50% in only 4 months, from October to February. If this 'tight flag' were to play out, it could go down another 50% lower, putting it in the 35k range. (8ema orange / 21ema purple / 50sma yellow / 150sma blue / 200sma green) Technical study for educational purposes; not financial advice or a trade signal.

$TSLA structural breakdown, $270 now feasible > losing 50 week MA > next stop is the 21 month ema > once that's lost... $270-290 area (massive confluence of 150/200 week 50 month sma prior 2023 highs and critical area in 2025) (8ema orange / 21ema purple / 50sma yellow / 150sma blue / 200sma green) Technical study for educational purposes; not financial advice or a trade signal.