Classic 4-year cycle ATH?
Anticipation?
A lot of people are confused about this topic.
Time to spend a few words explaining in a deeper manner the outcome of this cycle. (read it till the end cause it’s important)
🔸 4-year pattern
Since its inception, Bitcoin has produced a classic 4-year pattern.
This is clearly evident if we measure the length that passes from top to top and from bottom to bottom:
• 2013 top ~> 2017 top = 1477 days
• 2015 bottom ~> 2018 bottom = 1428 days
• 2017 top ~> 2021 top = 1435 days
• 2018 bottom ~> 2022 bottom 1428 days
The average interval of time that passes from each significant point is indeed and approximately 1400 days.
Making a similar projection of the cycle would put the next Bitcoin top in Q4 2025 and the next Bitcoin bottom in Q4 2026.
But the tide is turning and this projection seems not to make sense anymore..
🔸Halving, the bullish catalyst
Historically speaking, the halving (✂️ in the chart) has been the most bullish catalyst for seeing Bitcoin transitioning into the parabolic phase of the run. (global liquidity also)
Over time, this pattern has been very well-known and the technical impact (reduction of miners' reward) has lost its previous magnitude, given the availability of Bitcoin's current supply, estimated to be more than 90%.
The proof is in this cycle.
Bitcoin has always been rejected from the 0.618 Fibonacci level, producing a harsh correction before running post-halving date.
This cycle instead, Bitcoin has broken above the 0.618, something extraordinary and unique.
This brings us to the next important point..
🔸 Left translated cycle
“Left translated what?”
A left-translated cycle would entail an aggressive run-up earlier than usual in the 4-year cycle and prior to the midpoint (60 days cycle rule) contrary to the right-translated cycle where the peak occurs after the midpoint.
The current midpoint is estimated around October/November 2024.
This means, dear Padawan, that if we break the ATH before the midpoint, the cycle will be much shorter.
“Isn’t it possible to see it running till Q4 2025?”
Unlikely, in my opinion.
Despite global liquidity rising flashing a positive outcome for risk-on assets (that should be extended till 2026) I don't see Bitcoin continuing to go up from the ATH period to late 2025.
Most institutional investors are and would be at huge profit (millions and millions) and, as previously said in past analysis, they will not need the moon to capitalize.
Hard to think we will experience 2 years of parabolic bull market, isn't it?
🔸To conclude
“The more firmly a pattern is established in the markets, the more it will be front-run in the future by traders who believe they know what is about to happen.”
This seems to be the case of this quote.
I already explained my theory regarding the Bitcoin top, which is sustained by the U.S. presidential elections and which, at this stage of the cycle, moves the attention to this Q4/Q1 2025.
The signs of a left-translated cycle are getting stronger and we should adapt to
market dynamics.
As always, what matters are HTFs, and they’re clearly bullish.
Both for Bitcoin and altcoins.
The main strategy remains one and only one:
• Buy spot
• Ride the trend
• Be prepared for dips
• Don’t use leverage if you don't know how to
• Pay patience
Overcomplication not needed.