Public market investor. Keeping you in the loop on the latest developments in AI and its impact on the public equity market.

Joined September 2024
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Welcome to Context Window - your guide to the AI market's ups and downs. We will provide commentary and analysis on the latest developments in AI and its impact on the public equity markets. Let us be your guide through AI winter. Follow along.
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Context Window retweeted
25 Dec 2024
Replying to @Yuhu_ai_
200k is just the amuse-bouche
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$TSLA holding and forming a nice base. Think we see another run at 358-360 resistance this week that we've seen a few times since the election and break through. Lot of gamma above those levels
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$TSLA intraday high of 358 on 11/11 marking reistance over past month. This was the 4th trading day post election. Technicals have held up well as we've been coiling below that level and working off RSI's, not overbought. Setup looks nice into year end and earnings in January
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My base case into 12/31 year end is a decisive move above those 11/11 highs and gamma squeeze towards 400. I think we close the year around that 400, make a run at all time high and settle a little below all time highs for the year before making another leg higher in January earnings
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Did you miss me? $NVDA

ALT Heres Johnny The Shining GIF

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$NVDA Jensen Huang is done selling for now.
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$NVDA Morgan Stanley report today very bullish for Blackwell revenue in Q4 .
24 Sep 2024
$NVDA Morgan Stanley says Hopper/Blackwell demand is strong - Nvidia’s Blackwell chips are now entering volume production, with demand from major customers driving significant growth potential for the company - The Hopper H200 chips are seeing increased demand from smaller cloud service providers and sovereign AI projects - Blackwell chips are expected to see 450,000 units produced in the fourth quarter of 2024, translating into a potential revenue opportunity exceeding $10 billion for Nvidia - While Nvidia is still resolving some technical challenges with its GB200 server racks, these issues are part of the normal debugging process for new product launches - Hon Hai, Nvidia’s assembly partner, is reportedly on track to begin shipments of the GB200 server rack by late Q4 2024
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@TShirtnJeans2 @lfg_cap looks like possibly 10 billion of blackwell in q4
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What do you think? $NVDA
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Another 100k GPU cluster coming online soon $META $NVDA
Meta $META is expected to soon finish its massive GPU cluster featuring 100,000 of Nvidia's $NVDA H100 GPUs, with operations commencing in October or November to train Meta's Llama 4 model.
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Blackwell update $NVDA $SMH $SOXX
Nvidia’s $NVDA GB200 is reportedly set for mass production and ramp in December, according to a report from the Commercial Times.
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Bingo
My dumb big-picture take: I'd think it'd be new hardware for training, old hardware for inference. And as long as things keep improving so fast, they'll build new infrastructure for each new big model. Which would skew inference towards using the same infrastructure it trains on.
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My theory on this is the business execs like Nadella trying to reign in expectations and capex plans in messaging (yet continuing to increase investment in practice) until the ROI and usage is smacking everyone in the face. But let the technologists provide the bullish narrative in other settings. You saw something similar for Sundar vs. Sergey messaging. Business execs like Nadella and Sundar trying to beat and raise expectations on AI potential. Kevin Scott and Sergey offer the bullish takes separately. It's planned messaging. $MSFT $NVDA $GOOG
Nadella saying "the models themselves become more of a commodity" is wild to begin with, but prefacing it with "In fact with scaling laws" just adds to the overall chaos of the messaging
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But yeah, it comes off inconsistent versus all their other actions - investment, capex, etc. Think it's scripted though to not put cart too far ahead of the horse in expectations
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$TSLA we are less than 1 month from Robotaxi event, which will be focused on autonomous driving and likely Tesla's other AI efforts (Optimus). Setup looks vaguely similar to breakout in 2023
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Sam Altman cryptically alluding to GPT5 being released this winter with the below tweet. GPT5 internal code name is Orion, hence the constellations reference. $MSFT OpenAI $NVDA
14 Sep 2024
i love being home in the midwest. the night sky is so beautiful. excited for the winter constellations to rise soon; they are so great.
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Context Window retweeted
Replying to @fabknowledge
🎯 AI is the path to drive cloud growth in the 2020s. SaaS is mature. What's the most important metric for hyperscalers? Cloud growth. 🚀
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Ellison. One of a kind. $ORCL $NVDA
13 Sep 2024
To source the 131,072 GPU Al "supercluster," Larry Ellison, appealed directly to Jensen Huang, during a dinner joined by Elon Musk at Nobu. "I would describe the dinner as me and Elon begging Jensen for GPUs. Please take our money. We need you to take more of our money. Please!”
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