Strategy geek, complexity fiend, helping organisations be better. Welshman in south London. Tweets in personal capacity etc etc.

Joined May 2010
413 Photos and videos
Outstanding list here. Am excessively jealous of Ben having been to all these!
A thread on the 50 best fortifications to go and visit in the world according to me. They are all fun for at least one in the family. They are listed in reverse rank order as determined by how much fun, unique and awesome they are.
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30 Oct 2025
Amazing. Almost run over by a Stagecoach-operated bus in London today. Messaged them to complain and got a reply saying they don't have a depot in London....when they run 37 routes under contract for @TfL
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14 Mar 2025
Definitely not this
14 Mar 2025
Tesla
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1 Mar 2025
L to the OG…
NEW: Mark Zuckerberg rips off his suit and starts performing in a blue jumpsuit at his wife's 40th birthday party. What The billionaire surprised his wife at her birthday party by wearing singer Benson Boone’s jumpsuit that he used during his 2025 Grammy performance of "Beautiful Things." "Your wife only turns 40 once! Shoutout to Benson Boone for the jumpsuit and new single," Zuck said on IG.
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Chris Davies retweeted
28 Feb 2025
OK. Here's the issue. There is a strong argument that Ukraine is THE climactic battle of the Thucydides Trap. That is: the big war between the US and China is actually between their proxies Ukraine and Russia. And this settlement — to this war — determines the next world order. Because there won’t be a fight in Taiwan if NATO is defeated in Ukraine. Taiwan will just surrender to China because they know they won't get reliable Western military support. And so will everyone else. So, this may be the decisive moment when terms get negotiated with the China/Russia group for the next however many years. That means that even if you think Ukraine was a disaster and Zelensky is a dummy, you don’t want NATO to be catastrophically defeated in Kiev like it was in Afghanistan. That would be bad for Democrats, Republicans, Europeans, Japanese — just about everyone under the US security umbrella. Instead you want the best possible outcome to this terrible war, under the circumstances. Because the West may already have fallen into the Thucydides Trap. And if so, it should very carefully think about whether it can get out.
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Chris Davies retweeted
One of the things that made the Roman Republic's alliance system in Italy - upon which was built the lion's share of Rome's victories - so successful was that the Romans handled the system tactfully. Part of the 'deal' of the system was 'we won't humiliate you.' 1/
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28 Feb 2025
A great example of Chesterton’s Fence - don’t take something away before you understand why it’s there. America’s informal empire is a fantastically low cost lever for driving US wealth. The MAGA model risks throwing away that advantage bc it misunderstands that
27 Feb 2025
Replying to @balajis
I get why nationalists and socialists oppose empire. Socialists think the US is exploiting the world, while nationalists think the US is exploited by the world. And both actually have a point, on different dimensions, if you look through it from their respective lenses: However, what's missing is the center-left and center-right defense of American Empire. In part this is because even the existence of this empire is not acknowledged. Despite having 750 military bases and the headquarters of the UN in New York, there is the pretense that this all somehow happened by accident. But becoming global #1 in every category does not happen by accident. Wertheim's book documents exactly how and when the decision was made to seek empire: in 1940, after the fall of France, when the US realized that if they didn't build an empire then the Nazis (or, later, the Soviets) would. However, unlike past empires, American Empire is a hidden empire — as Daniel Immerwahr points out. Unlike the British Empire, it's not referred to in explicitly imperial terms, even if countries are expected to obey DC and pay tribute by buying Treasuries. Like the Soviet Empire, it's ideological yet invisible. And like the B2 Stealth Bomber, enormous resources were spent obscuring the empire of democracy, like they were for the empire of communism. Anyway, this conversation is tricky because if you say "empire" then people instantly assume you're saying "empire is bad." But it's not always bad. Sometimes it's almost self-defense. Because power abhors a vacuum — and if you do decide not to play for world domination, you may well be dominated by the one who does. And that's the logic of empire. This was understood generations ago. But today, neither left nor right fully appreciates what it took to build American empire. They just inherited it. They don't understand it. Among other things, the far left doesn't realize that it required capitalism and trade. The nationalist right doesn't realize that it required democracy and allies. Combining these was the only way to build the multibillion-person global trade union that underpins the US dollar. You couldn't do that with 77M Trump voters or 75M Democrats alone. You need trade partners, you need allies. Otherwise, when you print $6T (as the US did from 2020-2022) it's spread not across 6B people worldwide but just ~330M Americans. Because inflation is taxation, that's a 95% drop in the effective tax base. You go from printing $1000/head to $20000/head, with all the obvious consequences. Anyway, I completely understand why many US factions are tired of these abstractions. Because this concrete empire doesn't seem to be working for them. What isn't being considered is that things may get even worse, at least temporarily, if empire is retired. I guess we'll see what happens.
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5 Feb 2025
Every major government reform from Solon on has involved controlling the Treasury. The only novel thing is the ease with which it's happened, thanks to the system now being digital. William the Conqueror had to send people physically to go and appropriate the Treasury in 1066
.@elonmusk really is a genius. In the history of how to reform government, no one to my knowledge suggested getting hold of the systems controlling personnel and payments. Obvious in retrospect but totally new play.
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5 Feb 2025
This insistence on these people's unique genius is exhausting
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Chris Davies retweeted
Jevons paradox strikes again! As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can't get enough of. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevo…
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24 Jan 2025
I mean, the question ‘defending them from whom’ aside…the US has done pretty well from using its position to set the terms of trade for the entire capitalist world for the last 70 years….
The Panama Canal, Canada, and Greenland all have one thing in common. The U.S. has to defend them and has to pay for that. Trump's view is that if we're going to defend them we should get something for it.
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21 Jan 2025
Great @instituteforgov session on mission government with @Gilesyb @Samfr @nehal_davison & @cassia_rowland Lots of references to needing a theory of change…strikes me we need better understanding of how complex systems work to do that
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21 Jan 2025
Listening to a @instituteforgov discussion on the size of the civil service and it strikes me that it’s a classic Jevons Paradox… …as government becomes more efficient, ministers end up getting it to do more rather than cutting back
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21 Jan 2025
Thanks Grok. I’m not one of the adolescents.
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18 Jan 2025
Had a very similar experience with AirBnB in Berlin a few years ago. Claimed we’d broken a bed, that it was completely unrepairable, and we owed them over €6000. AirBnB took their side - and of course we had no pictures of the inside of the bed on arrival
17 Jan 2025
My wife, daughter, and I stayed at an @Airbnb in NYC in November. Perfectly normal stay. Nothing happened. When we left, the owner said there was a small stain on the hardwood floor he couldn't clean and said it took him $7500 to fix, including literally replacing floorboards. We know nothing about this, saw nothing, looks totally unfamiliar. Feels like insurance fraud, or something? AirBNB took his side because we couldn't provide a picture of the floor at the exact minute we walked out the door. Are you kidding me? Has anyone else had an experience with AirBNB like this? Any attorneys who know how to deal with this sort of absurd claim?
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18 Jan 2025
But once we got our insurers involved, the whole thing disappeared. Total scam.
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Chris Davies retweeted
16 Jan 2025
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says that AI can draft 95% of an S1 IPO prospectus “in minutes” (a job that used to require a 6-person team multiple weeks). “The last 5% now matters because the rest is now a commodity,” per Solomon.
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Chris Davies retweeted
radio 3 vs classic fm
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14 Jan 2025
Your reminder that the salary costs of civil servants are typically trivial compared to the cost of services. Eg all of DWP’s people costs are about 1% of its total budget. If you want to make big savings in government spending, you have to stop doling out cash
13 Jan 2025
Milei fans need to understand he has achieved his surpluses, inflation nosedive, and soaring confidence largely through cuts to pensions. Pension cuts accounted for more than 1/3 of all spending reduction. He makes the winter fuel payment means testing look like chicken feed.
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13 Jan 2025
I’m sure the good people of Gloucestershire would both object to being taxed in dollars and having any tax raised spent fighting fires in America
🤨🤨🤨
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