7 Years of Crypto Advice in 26 Minutes

The reason stocks are going parabolic while crypto is dying comes down to a combination of factors: - stock bull is driven by mag 7 reallocation of large war chests of cash/bonds --> AI buildout. This massively increases velocity of money, and leads to continous significant rev growth for AI adjacent companies -> higher valuations - crypto is driven by QE/low rates, as investors move out on the risk curve due to bond yields being crushed and borrowing becomes cheap. neither are likely to happen anytime soon as inflation remains elevated from higher velocity of money high oil prices w/ iran war - mstr ponzi is slowly unwinding and has passed the equilibrium where we are now in a negative death spiral. saylor put himself in a corner where the only way out is to sell more BTC -> lower btc prices -> more BTC must be sold. - AI buildout is accelerating the proximity to a real quantum threat for BTC. semi quantum proof alternatives like ZEC lead to outflows from BTC seeking safety - AI is the dominant story and retail is chasing AI stocks with capital they would've previously allocated to Crypto. Without strong accumulation $TOTAL slowly trends lower - as crypto<> stocks become more integrated and the investor cohorts overlap, fundamentals become driven more by revenue growth and tokenholder alignment. with almost all of the best founders launching companies outside of Crypto, B-tier crypto startups are the only real options for investors and see minimal flows compared to tradfi equivalents. - within the largest narrative AI, majority of value accrual goes to frontier models like gpt/anthropic and companies supporting the physical infrastructure buildout, neither of which exist within Crypto

The AI buildout is real. That's the problem. Everyone arguing the bull case keeps telling me the revenue is real, the capex is real, the demand is real. Yeah. It is. The internet was real in 2000 too, and those names still came down 80%. Real doesn't save you. Real is what gives you permission to overpay. Here's the part nobody says out loud: they're pricing the speed as if it's permanent. As if this rate of buildout is the new floor. But look at what kind of move this is. It isn't growing fast and steady. It's growing faster than fast, the acceleration is still increasing into the top. That's the tell. Steady growth can run for years. A move that has to keep accelerating just to stay alive is burning fuel it can't refill. The moment it can't accelerate anymore, not even reverse, just stop speeding up, every dollar that was priced on the acceleration leaves. That's why the floor isn't where people think. There's nothing level underneath a parabola. There's only the slope. Take the slope away and there's nothing. I've watched this exact thing empty a portfolio I spent years building. Going to lay the whole case out over the next while. Charts, the analogs, the math. Stick around if you want the reasoning instead of the noise.

so many people struggle to recognise pvp vs pve environments everyone in crypto twitter can be euphoric and making money, and price can keep trending higher, because of external flows (tradfi) taking us higher does no one here remember in 2017 bull when everyone was euphoric everyday and yet price still kept sending? same concept