從以前到現在的感覺就是川普總統在某方面的挫敗就會找台灣來出氣。兩個多月了。伊朗問題陷入僵局，去中國一趟，成果有限，現在只好轉移助力整天罵台灣半導體。似曾相識的感覺。

晶片供應鏈的產能擴張速度，已經快於資料中心電力、輸電、變壓器、冷卻與地方許可的擴張速度。 2026–2027：電力不夠。 2028–2030：紙面上可能夠，但要看天然氣、核電、fuel cell、輸電與變壓器能不能如期落地。 稀缺的不是晶片，而是「可立即插電、可冷卻、可併網、可滿載」的 AI factory capacity

Rumor: Google to shift to a COT model starting with TPU v9, downgrading the role of MediaTek/Broadcom. This would be a major negative for Broadcom and MTK. According to this rumor, starting with TPU v9, Google plans to move to a model similar to AWS’s Annapurna, where Google directly places wafer orders with TSMC. In other words, Google would be doing COT directly. What does that mean? Google would become TSMC’s direct customer, while Broadcom and MediaTek would be downgraded to IP support / design service roles. Ownership of the chip and control over supply would shift toward Google. In other words, Broadcom/MediaTek’s per-chip margin would fall, if this is true. Instead of recognizing the full chip ASP as revenue, the model would shift toward design service fees / margin. That makes me more worried about Broadcom than MediaTek. $AVGO

從北約到台灣：全球打響海底電纜保衛戰 cn.wsj.com/articles/從北約到台灣-全球打響海底電纜保衛戰-0deba542?st=QKFFsJ via @ChineseWSJ

Japan buyers take M&A to record high on Toyota, NTT moves asia.nikkei.com/Business/Bus… via @NikkeiAsia 此增長主要由日本大型老牌企業集團的重組和提高資本效率的舉措驅動，包括豐田汽車主導對豐田工業的私有化交易（約4.7兆日圓/321億美元）和NTT收購NTT數據集團（超過2兆日圓）。

Bank of Japan wraps up stock divestment, weighs timing to sell ETFs asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank… via @NikkeiAsia 儘管日本央行已暗示不會立即出售，且市場普遍預期會是漫長過程，但任何關於出售時間表、規模或方式的「意外」訊息，都可能引發市場的劇烈反應。

This was one of our most popular stories from this week | Free to read Hong Kong's borrowing costs plunge to nearly zero as it works to maintain dollar peg s.nikkei.com/3I65DLZ

GM’s Home-Grown LMR Battery  Opens New Front in EV Competition spectrum.ieee.org/general-mo…

Goldman Sachs revamps Fed interest rate cut forecast for 2025 thestreet.com/fed/goldman-sa… 來自 @ebcapital

In a 12-hour social media barrage, Elon Musk led a rebellion against a bill aimed at keeping the government funded wsj.com/politics/policy/musk… via @WSJ

What a College Football Week! So exciting.

人有旦夕禍福，雖然不知道地下的地震何時會來，同樣的我們也不知道天空中會掉下什麼東西砸死人！ worldjournal.com/wj/story/12…

重量級財報週

It seems the cut from of recession probability 25% to 20% is not meaningful to me. Or what can the market be priced in by this gap of 5% ? The indices now are just a few % less than the record high. Does he mean the investors should keep buying in or hold? Or be the contrarian?

鮑威爾對6月暫停加息持開放態度 cn.wsj.com/articles/CT-FED-2… via @ChineseWSJ 看起來Powell 是免強地可以接受不升息，但怎會有分析師期待或預測下半年會降息?

台灣-加權股價指數[TAIEX] vs. 電子業毛利率 macromicro.me/charts/75252/t…