Wild that Bitcoin at $64k feels normal and boring 😂

That the world’s first trillionaire is an immigrant to the United States who arrived with little, slept on floors, worked 100-hour weeks, & built companies now employing the population of Savannah, Georgia, will be entirely lost on the bitter arithmetic of envy and economic ignorance masquerading as egalitarianism. Now, as always: markets and entrepreneurship for the win.

I still believe this.

SpaceX IPO day 🔥 What’s your best guess for closing price today?

"Bitcoin’s origin is akin to planting a tree. It wasn’t just Satoshi’s selection of the species (code), but the season (timing), soil (distribution), and gardening (community) that were essential to its success." Read more on Bitcoin's origin here👇

There are exactly 0 counterfeit Bitcoin in circulation. What fiat currency can claim that?

Adam Back on Bitcoin as collateral, the risks of DeFi smart contracts, why Simplicity is a safer path, and how to think about price volatility after living through every cycle. - @adam3us with @danheld at @proofoftalk Paris. youtu.be/pPE-STK2xEo

There has been a lot of hand wringing on the appropriate valuation of SpaceX. Some large institutions believe SpaceX can only be valued at half what the market seems to be willing to pay for it. Others are claiming it has 15X appreciation ahead of it. Almost all of this difference of opinion comes down to how comfortable you are modeling beyond 2030 and what valuation method you use. 2030 valuation using a traditional Gordan DCF produces a very different result than a 2040 EV/EBITDA Multiple. Both have pros and cons. Most analysts don’t really discuss this and lead with a headline number. We are very comfortable modeling out to 2040, as large portions of what SpaceX is proposing is real world infrastructure, which provides modelable physics constraints to anchor against. The analysis we released today explores this in-depth, its open to the public all the way through IPO. I highly encourage you check it out prior to then. research.33fg.com/analysis/s… We’ve run 5,000 monte carlo runs across 500 variables (real number, even though it sounds fake) and three valuation methods. This video is of a 3D cloud chart showing every simulation outcome expected in valuation output across two of the most impactful variables to the model when using an EV/EBITDA multiple from 2026 to 2040. The horizontal axis is the steepness of the orbital data center demand S-curve. The vertical axis is the rate at which chip compute efficiency becomes cheaper. Each of the 5,000 dots is one simulated future; green dots are the ones where SpaceX's 2040 value clears the $1.77T IPO line, over time. Under EV/EBITDA valuation through 2040, 96% of our simulated futures clear the expected IPO price once the bell rings Friday. We aren’t publishing this publicly to tell investors what the stock is worth, we’re publishing this to help investors understand the world of outcomes, what the fundamentals suggest through 2040, and what frankly most analysis simply won’t share. SpaceX is a generational company working on long term infrastructure harnessing a domain no one has been able to tap in so far: space. It deserves doing the work as an investor. because this in not financial advice. The cleanest way to hold SpaceX is a bond stapled to a call option (AI-Compute); Starlink is the bond, the near term SatCom annuity that funds the next flywheel. Understand the world of outcomes and take your position accordingly. Comparables and P/E won't take you far enough.

Fiat = ♾ Crypto = ♾ Bitcoin = 21M Which one will you choose?

I ride the subway every single day in NYC - and can confirm, it is swarming with people who are mentally unstable. The city needs to jail people who are naked, urinating, screaming, and smoking on trains. The city also needs to install real gates.

Everyone who over-hired or lowered the bar too much in the 2021-2023 wave, or isn’t growing as fast as budgeted, now pretends they’re laying people off “due to AI productivity.”

We wouldn't need Bitcoin: - If we could trust banks - If we could trust people - If we could trust the government But we can't. That's why we need Plan ₿

It's always most bearish before dawn.

Talking Bitcoin.

Distribution is the new moat

HODL ✊

Remember a couple weeks ago when everyone was saying a 100x price/sales was crazy for SpaceX and all of a sudden it’s like 39x? Shows how dumb that type of analysis is 😅

👉For 4 years, 1 day, and 10 hours, anyone who understood the Orchard circuit could have minted ZEC out of thin air, silently, with no on-chain signature. The bug was disclosed this week. It was found by an AI-driven audit running Opus 4.8, not by an attacker. 1. Call the bug what it is Two lines in halo2's variable-base scalar multiplication gadget used assign_advice() where copy_advice() was required. As a result, the diversified-address integrity check pk_d = [ivk]·g_d could be satisfied for arbitrary inputs. A malicious prover could spend the same note multiple times with different nullifiers, i.e. counterfeit ZEC inside the Orchard pool, undetectable on-chain because the privacy of the ZK proof hides exactly the inputs that would reveal the attack. We do not know whether it was exploited. We will probably never know. 2. Four years. Multiple audits. Top-tier reviewers. Orchard was reviewed by some of the strongest cryptographers in the field before activation. They missed it. Earlier automated audits with Opus 4.7 missed it. Opus 4.8 catches it in roughly 1 in 4 runs when prompted generically. The bug is hard. And ZK inflation bugs are not new. Zcash itself shipped a counterfeiting vulnerability in Sprout (BCTV14) that survived years before being silently neutralized during Sapling. Similar soundness issues have appeared in circom, halo2, and rollup verifiers since. The pattern is consistent: when the protocol is private, exploitation is undetectable. You patch the bug and hope. 3. What Zcash did right This was a textbook decentralized incident response: ▶️Audit: a full AI-assisted soundness audit of halo2 Orchard, scoped end-to-end. ▶️Discover: the agent flagged the missing constraint and worked out the algebra to turn it into an exploit. A working RPC-level PoC in ~6 hours, mostly waiting on tokens. ▶️Coordinate: a soft fork disabling Orchard, prepared and distributed without leaking the bug, activated 2 days and 15 hours after acknowledgement. Coordinating a soft fork across miners, exchanges, and nodes without disclosing why is genuinely hard. They did it. ▶️Disclose: timeline, code lines, math, open questions. No spin. Worth naming explicitly: Zcash's turnstile invariant caps the value that can ever leave a shielded pool by the value that entered it. Privacy and verifiability inside the same protocol. That is not an accident. That is good engineering, and it is what kept the worst case bounded. 4. The economics of security just changed AI does not change whether bugs like this exist. It changes the cost of finding them. I wrote about this x.com/P3b7_/status/203643721…: a missing constraint in a 4-year-old production ZK circuit used to require a top-tier cryptographer with months of context. It now requires a few tokens, an API key, and a well-framed prompt. The defender benefits. The attacker benefits more, they only need to find it once, and they never disclose. Orchard is the optimistic version of this story: defense got there first. The pessimistic version is the one we cannot rule out, because the chain is private by design. 5. The only real exit You do not patch your way out of this asymmetry. You raise the floor. Formal verification of consensus-critical circuits, every assign_advice audited by SAT solvers and AI for under-constraint, as the reporter himself recommends. Proof-grade engineering that used to be too expensive is now cheap enough to be mandatory. Hardware roots of trust, secure enclaves, certified secure elements, WYSIWYS. Cryptographic guarantees the user can actually verify, not promises a host can lie about. Continuous AI-assisted audit of every consensus-critical commit, re-run immediately on the release of any new frontier model. Zcash didn't just patch a bug. They demonstrated the new defensive playbook: AI-driven audits, decentralized coordination, radical transparency, verifiable invariants. That is the direction the rest of the industry needs to follow. And those who don't raise the bar for security will be rekt in this new world. Stay safe. Stay honest about your trust assumptions.