Joined October 2023
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For those that missed my stream last night, here is my forecast for the Atlantic basin this year: 12NS/5HU/2MH with an ACE of 80-85. I believe we will have a slightly below normal season, with activity mainly being in the SW Atlantic and off the SE Coast.
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Danilo Evangelista retweeted
June 15 8pm EDT Key Messages: A disturbance over Mexico is expected to emerge into the NW Gulf around midweek and could become a tropical storm. Regardless of formation, periods of intense rainfall are expected from Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley this week. Stay up to date with the latest at hurricanes.gov and weather.gov.
ALT Key Messages for Disturbance Over the Northwestern Gulf of America. 8:00 PM EDT Mon June 15, 2026 1. NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that is forecast to move into the northwestern Gulf of America near the Texas coast late Tuesday or Wednesday. The system could become a tropical storm, and interests along the northwestern Gulf Coast should continue to monitor updates to the forecast. 2. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast. 3. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Stay up to date with the latest at hurricanes.gov and weather.gov.
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Danilo Evangelista retweeted
The hurricane hunters are gearing up for two flights into the Gulf on Wednesday morning.
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According to onland surface observations, it appears that there is already an broad low level circulation associated with #90L, over NE Mexico. It's showing up decently on the 850mbar vorticity as well. If it continues to move east like it appears so now, it may hit...
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the water by tomorrow, in which I think it is very possible that this could spinup into #Arthur before moving onshore near Eastern TX/LA on Wednesday.
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90L INVEST 260615 1800 26.0N 101.0W ATL 15 1011
Invest #90L has officially been designated in the Atlantic. This is our gulf disturbance which we'll be watching closely over the next 2-3 days as it could develop near Texas.
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The situation is starting to get serious, as the NHC has now upgraded our AOI in the Gulf to a moderate 🍊chance of development. Recon may go into the disturbance tomorrow, especially if it is able to move offshore. If it does, I think development of this system is very likely...
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But the biggest concern, will be the increasing chance of a big time flood event for the NW Gulf coast, stretching into Mississippi throughout the week. Many areas are expected to see half a foot to potentially up to a foot rain, which will cause widespread flooding.
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Today's update, going over the increasing chances of a Tropical Storm for the NW Gulf coast by Wednesday:
youtu.be/sp5PvyJFpdk
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The NHC has slightly increased the chances for the gulf disturbance up to 30 percent in the next 7 days. The models, namely the EPS guidance have continued to trend more towards the AI models which have showed a redevelopment solution in the NW Gulf for days.
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Danilo Evangelista retweeted
Jun 14
The National Hurricane Center has increased chances of a depression or tropical storm forming in the NW Gulf later this week.
Interests in Texas & Louisiana should monitor the progress of this disturbance. First name on the list is #Arthur.
#tropicalupdate 🍋🌀
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Danilo Evangelista retweeted
Jun 14
El Niño development is firing on all cylinders.
Sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have now broken records for five days in a row.
A locally record-breaking westerly wind burst is currently causing yet more warming there.
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Today's Tropical Weather Outlook going over the Gulf disturbance which still has a chance:
youtu.be/QJqI0niffCU
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The NHC appears to be paying attention to the AI model which still shows a small bit of potential for the system over Mexico to re-emerge over the NW Gulf near the Texas coast, and try to develop some. I don't think the chance is very high right now, but we'll see.
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Our Disturbance in the Gulf may not look impressive and may not have a shot at development at this point, BUT impacts are still coming. Portions of the Texas and Upper Gulf Coast are likely going to see heavy rain as we begin the week, with the WPC indicating a slight...
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risk of Flash Flooding for portions of Texas, Louisiana stretching into Alabama. Do not let your guard down, as flooding is the biggest killers in Tropical Cyclones, even when we are NOT dealing with an official named storm.
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Daily video update, today talking more about El Nino and how conditions will be shaping in the Pacific over the next few weeks, as well as an update on the Gulf:
youtu.be/hcW_yPzLy5g
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I'm going live at 12 on Youtube, Hope to see you there:
youtube.com/live/BmH8v_r7Nzw…
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Today's tropical weather outlook - I talk about our interesting western gulf AOI and the chance for development it may have - and why impacts will be brought to the gulf coast REGARDLESS:
youtu.be/ckbPr-MY4Dk
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Our AOI in the Gulf has had persistent convection all day and there seems to be somewhat off a low-level vorticity signature shaking up right now on the maps. I'd say this is very likely going to get the #90L designation very soon. NHC already slightly increased chances today.
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Today's video, taking a deep dive into how Strong El Nino is going to affect this year's hurricane season in the Atlantic:
youtu.be/-JmaaA_uBXk
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