RT @chigrl: The reason nobody is sure why BTC is pulling back is because everyone is looking for a single cause when this is actually a sys…

Grantham used to say that a bear market doesn’t start with everybody getting bearish. It just starts because people are a little less euphoric than the day before.

The real trick? Buy the close, sell the open. That's the trade.

Ps. If you liked this thread, you'll enjoy my newsletter. Every week I share tips on how to get lean, boost energy, and how to optimize the body. Join 390,000 subscribers here: dango.co/newsletter2

"Out of any 15-year period to be invested in equities dating back to 1970, the one we’ve just lived through was the best." Bridgewater Co-CIO Bob Prince

150 years of S&P500 returns. What's your take for 2025?

30 things no one tells you when you reach the age of 40: 1. No one prepares you for the fact you will go to more funerals & this will increase as you get older. The people you love will eventually pass, so we must cherish them now while we have them.

🧵A senior portfolio manager gave me the best investing advice: "Stop drowning in market noise. We only track 5 numbers that really matter." Here's what they watch...👇

There’s a lot of confusion surrounding Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy. Allow me to explain exactly what’s going on. This could be one of the best investments of your life 👇

Vamos, @RafaelNadal!   As you get ready to graduate from tennis, I’ve got a few things to share before I maybe get emotional.   Let’s start with the obvious: you beat me—a lot. More than I managed to beat you. You challenged me in ways no one else could. On clay, it felt like I was stepping into your backyard, and you made me work harder than I ever thought I could just to hold my ground. You made me reimagine my game—even going so far as to change the size of my racquet head, hoping for any edge.   I’m not a very superstitious person, but you took it to the next level. Your whole process. All those rituals. Assembling your water bottles like toy soldiers in formation, fixing your hair, adjusting your underwear... All of it with the highest intensity. Secretly, I kind of loved the whole thing. Because it was so unique—it was so you.   And you know what, Rafa, you made me enjoy the game even more.    OK, maybe not at first. After the 2004 Australian Open, I achieved the #1 ranking for the first time. I thought I was on top of the world. And I was—until two months later, when you walked on the court in Miami in your red sleeveless shirt, showing off those biceps, and you beat me convincingly. All that buzz I’d been hearing about you—about this amazing young player from Mallorca, a generational talent, probably going to win a major someday—it wasn’t just hype.   We were both at the start of our journey and it’s one we ended up taking together. Twenty years later, Rafa, I have to say: What an incredible run you’ve had. Including 14 French Opens—historic! You made Spain proud... you made the whole tennis world proud.   I keep thinking about the memories we’ve shared. Promoting the sport together. Playing that match on half-grass, half-clay. Breaking the all-time attendance record by playing in front of more than 50,000 fans in Cape Town, South Africa. Always cracking each other up. Wearing each other out on the court and then, sometimes, almost literally having to hold each other up during trophy ceremonies.   I’m still grateful you invited me to Mallorca to help launch the Rafa Nadal Academy in 2016. Actually, I kind of invited myself. I knew you were too polite to insist on me being there, but I didn’t want to miss it. You have always been a role model for kids around the world, and Mirka and I are so glad that our children have all trained at your academies. They had a blast and learned so much—like thousands of other young players. Although I always worried my kids would come home playing tennis as lefties.   And then there was London—the Laver Cup in 2022. My final match. It meant everything to me that you were there by my side—not as my rival but as my doubles partner. Sharing the court with you that night, and sharing those tears, will forever be one of the most special moments of my career.   Rafa, I know you’re focused on the last stretch of your epic career. We will talk when it’s done. For now, I just want to congratulate your family and team, who all played a massive role in your success. And I want you to know that your old friend is always cheering for you, and will be cheering just as loud for everything you do next.   Rafa that!   Best always, your fan, 
 Roger

As Bitcoin is about to cross $100,000 This piece is more important than ever. Don’t get blinded by euphoria and remember to respect your capital. 🫡

Michael Burry: "My strategy isn't very complex. I try to buy shares of unpopular companies when they look like road kill, and sell them when they've been polished up a bit".

Best year of the century for the S&P 500

31 Years of Stock Market Returns in one chart:

Here we are. After a prolonged inversion, the US yield curve just dis-inverted. Here is why it matters. Thread 1/

The bond market has known this for 13 months.

Monthly update from EXPAAM on asset class performance since 2011 (or since introduction for ETH & SOL)

It's not the yield curve inversion investors should worry about. It's the late-cycle bull steepening which is unfolding right now. Thread. 1/

We did it, everyone: we're 8 basis points from the definitive indicator of the beginning of a recession: disinversion of the 10y-2y yield curve. If you're about to buy equity in any capacity—either as an investor, employee, or via acquisition—go ahead and pencil in a 50% discount and see if you'd still do it.

RT @paulkrugman: Sahm Rule has now been triggered. As I wrote, this *probably* doesn’t mean we’re in a recession given special circumstance…