Joined April 2009
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It would appear Nvidia is literally doing an Enron. Specifically, it has reinvented the Chewco Maneuver: Create fake "third parties" to absorb unwanted liabilities, fund with your own capital to prime the pump, then get rubes (retirement funds) to eat the risk.
🚨Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers. Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake. He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing. Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 billion worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor. Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale. Those 100,000 chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models. But here is what Burry is flagging. Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory. They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies. Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle. Now here is where American retirees enter the picture. Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit. Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene. Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans. When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center. The numbers inside Athene are most alarming. Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight. Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets. Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth. The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times. Burry's says: Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing. - Nvidia books the revenue. - Apollo collects the fees. - xAI gets the computing power. - And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.
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Vibe Coding, 2025-2026 RIP 🪦 Turns out you do still need skilled software engineers in the loop, just like many of us said all along.
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Replying to @johnennis
I think all of that "our model is sooo good it could potentially end the world" talk was just to hype the IPO. All of that "safety first" fearmongering by Dario backfired gloriously.
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David Z. Morris retweeted
My opinion is that Mythos is the current best model but not actually some world-changing dangerous model, and that anthropic did their usual song and dance about safety largely because they didn’t have enough compute to serve it at scale So then they launched Fable because they still have to think about the IPO, but they are still somewhat compute limited so they put all sorts of restrictions on it Around the same time, because they are trying to get regulatory capture and not because things are actually dangerous, Dario did more scaremongering and published his honestly confusing white paper that offered no real solutions So finally they succeeded, they managed to freak out the government, their cynical plan backfired, and now it’s a giant pain in the ass
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last one
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We had a whole discussion about this in the office, and part of why @davidzmorris and I decided to write about SpaceX was how little people knew about the internal workings. Sometimes, you have to take a moment to ask why everyone is so hyped.
POV @AustinCampbell @DavidZMorris : SpaceX IPO has a P/E ratio ~50 (P/E of Nvidia, ~30). Hyperinflated multiple. W/o a clear forward revenue path. At a top-of-market valuation = nearly negative sign for future returns. POV their @zkzeroknowledge intern w/ 40 SpaceX IPO shares:
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David Z. Morris retweeted
There’s a part in the book White Noise where the characters talk about losing their identity once they’ve aged out of being the primary demo for advertisements and marketing.I think about that every time I see nostalgia porn videos because they’re always just ads for old products
It's rare that AI video makes me feel any emotion. But these "nostalgiamaxxing videos" really do capture what it's like to grow up in the 90's Credit: homeforchristmasofficial
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RT @lunwi75: Remember when Musk challenged the World Food Program to explain how he could solve world hunger with just $6 billion, they did…
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Jun 13
Anthropic
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Holy moly this thing did numbers You think X messaging doesn’t matter? You can go to discord, you can go to WhatsApp, you can hide in a cave. None of that will matter unless you fix the external perception of Cardano at this point. Hope you realize the more you fail to take control of the narrative and the people you are continually letting down, the worse and worse the narrative is going to be. Saw holders reaching out I never even knew existed sharing similar sentiment. Keep thinking the move is not listening to us…
Jun 12
I put my entire life into Cardano. My time, my expertise, my savings. I’ve literally gone all in, and for over 5 years now. No salary for 3 years, along with my co founder, and every payroll was paid on time. This isn’t meant as a guilt trip just context towards my reality. I forced my cofounders to envelope the ā€˜entrepreneur mindset’ and make sacrifices to make our vision of Anvil work. I thought we were in good company in Cardano. A bunch of scrappy, smart people who are building the future financial rails of the world. Unfortunately, not everyone was living like starving entrepreneurs and looted our community/treasury while keeping cushy salaries. Now the price is in the teens…and we can’t even get contracts on Cardano to sustain our business, with no indication that change is coming, all community business proposals are not passing atm. I gave up my 30s for this. I had a great career trajectory making solid money. I don’t regret the decision I just wish it went different. Believe it or not, we didn’t make many stupid decisions, we were responsible with salaries, and ran very lean operations. Did we fail? Or did Cardano fail to flourish and create real opportunity? I bought Ada, I believed in the token. I dropped my 401k on it. Held it religiously for 5 years, all to sell at .16 so I don’t lose my house? It’s insane lol was I supposed to sell on everyone’s heads? I thought being a believer was the whole point now I just feel like a sheep. I don’t even have the 100k Ada required anymore to go straight to the treasury. The only thing I can think of that hurt worse were my kidney stones. This is the most defeated I have felt in a long time. And now I’m watching 8 months of hard work and relationship building get thrown away. Can’t get a hold of half the DReps otherwise you come off as annoying. Didn’t do a Japan tour? Good luck! I had to waste 6 days explaining to one of our top DReps why the product needs Cardano. He basically said we didn’t need to use blockchain or cardano. Instead of explaining the value we create I gotta convince our top DReps why a project chose to build on Cardano? 🤯 Im not perfect but I damn sure tried to be! Answered everyone promptly, reached out to DReps, and did our best to listen/apply feedback. I show up everyday. Can someone explain to me why I should keep trying to build here? I’ve legit lost everything but my wife who isn’t getting any happier with me. Today is the first day I work towards getting my life back. IDK exactly what that means but I’m done feeling like this for nothing.
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David Z. Morris retweeted
American Bitcoin was promoted as a way for stock market investors to gain crypto exposure. Outside investors lost more than $200 million on American Bitcoin shares, while Eric Trump's restricted stake is still worth more than $70 million reut.rs/4xkGTo2 @specialreports
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too busy with spacex this week but there's a shitstorm over at meta w/r/t morale a blowup at an internal meeting this week basically made zuckerberg send out a companywide memo to calm things down wired has more deets on all the furor wired.com/story/mark-zuckerb…
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Replying to @davidzmorris
He's definitely suffering from grandiose delusion x.com/i/status/1992770798063…

Replying to @R1chardMaur1ce
You do understand what I do for a living? I literally make decentralized central banks and rebuilt Wallstreet on a blockchain
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David Z. Morris retweeted
Elon Musk's definition of "We" is bearing a lot of weight here
ELON MUSK: ā€œWe’re going to have universal high income. We’ll basically just issue money to people." "AI and robots are going to make so much stuff and provide so many services that they’ll run out of things to do for humans." "Money will stop being relevant at some point in the future." "AI won’t use human currency. It will care about power and mass: wattage and tonnage.ā€ ME: ā€œSo just as you’re becoming a multi-trillionaire, money starts to have less value?ā€ ELON: ā€œYeah, pretty much.ā€
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Wtf is the size of these 4 lokos man. They are about 2x the size of ours back home man, wish you got these in Scotland 🤣🤣 5 hour bus from New York to Boston now. Good few cans obvs, @kevinbridges86 says it perfectly. Pre game day in Boston, buzzing šŸ“ó §ó ¢ó ³ó £ó “ó æ Come on Scotland šŸ“ó §ó ¢ó ³ó £ó “ó æšŸ’™
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Replying to @davidzmorris
We are just tired of dealing with you faggots
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They can start dumping on you in EIGHT WEEKS.
The most important SpaceX detail nobody is talking about: the lockup is staggered. There is no single 180-day cliff. Insiders get to sell in tiers, starting MUCH earlier than a standard IPO. Here’s exactly when insiders can start selling: After Q2 2026 earnings (around August 11): Up to 20% unlocks. Another 10% on top if SPCX trades 30% above the $135 IPO price (so $175.50 ) for 5 of the prior 10 sessions. Five time-based tranches at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post-IPO. Each releases 7% of eligible shares. After Q3 2026 earnings (late October to early November): Another 28% unlocks. 180 days post-IPO (around December 9): Everything else unlocks. Elon and certain major investors get a longer 366-day lockup. They stay locked until around June 2027. Some context on the size: The IPO sold around 555.6M shares, representing roughly 4.2% of total shares outstanding. The other 95.8% was locked pre-IPO. The staggered pool (employees and early backers) is where the early releases happen. The structure is smart. It spreads selling pressure instead of concentrating it on one day. Still, watch August earnings closely. That is the first real wave of potential selling, up to 30% of eligible shares. After that it drips steadily through fall. Float is tiny right now, so volatility cuts both ways. Not financial advice. This is the lockup mechanics from the S-1 and reporting.
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Basic Capital has continued to hound me to take this down for more than a year. Of course, I haven’t, because it’s all factual and fair. But the fact they’re this worried about a Substack post shows how on-target my skepticism was in the first place. open.substack.com/pub/davidz…
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