I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.

Welcome to American commerce, @japan_nobunaga! Hope you’re enjoying your time here in the Greatest Economy in the World. We have wells of salsa.

Let’s see what we can do about that.

At (tba), we name our cycles/sprints after states. We named them in advance at our offsite, a month ago. Starting in alphabetical order, we've had Alabama, Big Sky (MT), Coyote (SD), Drenched (inside joke). This week, the week of the NBA finals, is Empire.

I’m pro-innovation. Pro-datacenter. Pro-progress. But details matter and putting one next to a zoo is a nonstarter for me. c.org/kvLXgBNWxR

Every great market starts by making something previously invisible tradable. Options made volatility tradable or Futures made future prices tradable. Prediction markets are doing the same thing now, But for variables we never had markets for: • event probabilities • conditional outcomes • belief distributions New market primitives are turning things we could only talk about into things we can finally trade.

if we let the most powerful information primitive in modern finance die under the label of “just gambling” because we couldn’t tell the story right it would be a tragedy

Long obedience in the same direction.

This is wild. As someone who has a genetic history of heart disease, I couldn’t be more thankful to the scientists behind this. Even if not a true “cure”, it’s almost certainly a step in the right direction.

The issue with most prediction market startups is that they’re building features, not apps

“It’s always fun to believe in founders, give them a check, and see what comes out the other side. You guys have *far* exceeded what we expected.” Heard this from an investor today. Means a lot. Still much to do. All credit to the NewCo team. A joy and privilege to lead them.

cashier: cash or card me: card cashier: ok

Congrats to SGA for winning MVP.

this. but for everything you buy.

Agreed with Alex, but i don’t believe that it’s a flaw with prediction markets as a technology. Rather, it’s a flaw with how prediction markets are being used today. True information markets are coming.

Millions spend hours with AI characters. But characters forget, creators don't earn, and the best experiences sit behind paywalls. We raised $1.5M to build the character economy with @lattice_fund, @cbventures' Base Ecosystem Fund, @JME_Ventures; bootstrapped by @worldcoinfnd.

This is all the more true as prediction markets move towards actual information markets. The farmer doesn’t have an edge in the NBA Finals or Zelensky’s suit. But in corn prices or weather markets? Absolutely they have an advantage.

the prediction market platform that wins long term is not the one with the most sports markets but the one that becomes the default venue for macro factors like unemployment, interest rates, inflation and volatility those are the markets institutions need year round, not every four years today’s winners might not be tomorrow’s

Just had the NewCo team here in Nashville for our first offsite. Exhausted from the fun, but stoked for the next two months.