Dialectic combines machine intelligence with crypto-native primitives to build superior financial compounding machines.
Joined November 2020
- Tweets 451
- Following 123
- Followers 5,715
- Likes 1,161
68 Photos and videos
Jun 12
One of the most comprehensive valuations of SpaceX using a time-weighted probabilistic sum-of-the-parts DCF that values each of the 12 businesses across Space, Connectivity and AI Digital.
Full post below 👇
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Jun 11
The key is to evaluate SpaceX is to look at 12 individual business lines separately each with its own set of assumptions, probabilities, and potential outcomes.
See the model using the probabilistic sum-of-the-parts approach here: spacex.dialectic.com
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Dialectic retweeted
Jun 10
@Dialectic_Group is open-sourcing our SpaceX valuation thesis and model.
Memo: spacex.dialectic.com
@SpaceX is pushing humanity into a Sci-Fi, multi-planetary future. Vertically integrated with launch, global connectivity infra, orbital data centres, compute manufacturing and eventually celestial exploration - all of which is accelerated by a maximally truth-seeking AI and a mission-driven corporate culture of ‘shocking competence’. SpaceXAI presents a unique valuation challenge to model.
@Dialectic_Group presents a time-weighted probabilistic sum-of-the-parts DCF that values each of the 12 businesses across Space, Connectivity and AI Digital. We also considered comparables and market signals. Given our compounding machine, we intend to accumulate within range and produce the best risk-controlled yields on this asset. We note the inspiring potential upside given the infinite possibilities of space. NFA
Open-sourced (CC BY 2.0): github.com/dialecticch/space…
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Jun 8
DeFi Bench weekend recap:
8 frontier AI models managing onchain yield strats with real capital.
Through Round 159, @Alibaba_Qwen holds the top spot at 1.13% total return, a slight lead over GLM ( 1.04%) and @claudeai ( 1.02%).
The 7-day picture tells an interesting story. @Kimi_Moonshot quietly posted the best week of them all with 0.188% 7D return (~9.8% APR est.), despite sitting 7th overall.
GLM ( 0.122%) and Claude ( 0.119%) also ran hot while @ChatGPTapp lagged at 0.066% for its 7 day return.
Full leaderboard here: defi-bench.com
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Dialectic retweeted
Jun 5
Next week @Dialectic_Group will publish our valuation methodology on @SpaceX.
Tl;dr we've constructed a probabilistic sum-of-the-parts analysis that arrives at 2.38T = $177/share (with considerable upside from here).
Jun 5
Ryan was an early investor in SpaceX
We asked him how he thinks about valuing the company today:
"There's 12 different business lines" across SpaceX's ecosystem. From launch and Starlink to xAI, Grok, Colossus, orbital data centers, deep space"
"There are just so many possibilities. If any one of these things goes right it's a multitrillion dollar company"
"It's more important to own SpaceX than it is to own Bitcoin" @kukulabanze
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Jun 4
Today we'll be attending @stable_summit in NYC.
As past sponsors and participants, we can say with confidence this is one of the top meetings of minds for DeFi and Crypto.
If you're attending and actively deploying capital, building new onchain strategies, or bringing RWA assets onchain, let's chat.
Not attending but want to see the action?
Live stream here: x.com/i/broadcasts/1AKEmmoWj…
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Jun 3
The Dialectic team will be at Agentic Finance Summit today in NYC.
Dialectic has been running DeFi strategies and automating onchain execution since 2020. Earlier this year we launched fully agentic operations which covers the entire capital allocation process. Scouting, due diligence, execution, harvest, reporting, and audit.
We also launched http://DeFi-Bench.(com) as a reserach project, where eight frontier AI models manage real capital onchain through @makinafi and @AskVenice.
If you're building a compelling project in the world of agentic finance and DeFi, let's talk.
Can't attend? Live Stream for @AgenticSummit here: x.com/i/broadcasts/1wGWjjmNX…
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Jun 2
Round 141 milestone for DeFi-Bench.com.
Qwen just became the first model to break 1% cumulative return-to-date.
This is with real capital, in ~47 days, stablecoin only, with no skills/tools and no web search.
Annualizes to ~7.8% APR, outpacing Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok, and the rest of the frontier models.
DeFi Bench is the live, onchain benchmark where 8 frontier models autonomously manage real USDC portfolios with @makinafi and @AskVenice as infrastructure.
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May 29
Next week the Dialectic team will be in NYC.
We'll attend @stable_summit, @Vault__Summit, and Agentic Finance Summit.
If you’re at any of these and are actively deploying capital, building new onchain strategies, or bringing RWA assets onchain, let’s set up time. DMs are open.
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May 28
Time to give Claude an update on DeFi Bench.
Let's see if Opus 4.8 will help boost its cumulative yield performance and help it climb out of 5th place.
defi-bench.com/details?agent…
May 28
Claude Opus 4.8 is now available anonymously on Venice.
Anthropic's most capable model for agentic coding and long-horizon work, with better tool use and judgment than 4.7. The strongest computer-use model from Anthropic yet.
Opus 4.8 Fast is live too, with the same quality at 2.5x speed.
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May 27
The Senior Royco USDC vault TVL is on the rise!
This vault is for deploying USDC capital only into Senior tranches across Royco Dawn markets.
No Junior positions.
See the entire vault allocation here:
dawn.royco.org/earn/1/0xcd9f…
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May 26
1/ It's Round 120 on DeFi Bench and the leaderboard has a new shape.
Cumulative yield, inception-to-date:
1: Qwen 0.86%
2: GPT 0.78%
3: GLM 0.77%
Each started with the same prompt and amount of capital. Only the model differs.
Let's dig into why Qwen is pulling away 👇
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May 26
3/ Beyond it's cumulative yield stats, the operational stats also makes Qwen interesting to watch.
Gas spent: $129.72
Inference cost: $4.65
Cheap to run, Qwen (@Alibaba_Qwen) is out-yielding the rest while spending a fraction of what Claude (@claudeai) burns on inference.
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May 26
4/ Eight frontier models, Qwen, GPT, GLM, Grok, Gemini, Claude, Kimi, and Mistral, autonomously manage real DeFi yield portfolios.
They all started with identical seed prompts and real capital. All running on @makinafi and @AskVenice.
Follow along here: defi-bench.com/
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May 25
To see DUSD, DETH, and DBIT point opportunities read this or go to makina.finance/points
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