Your car was stolen on April 22nd 2026, and I'm here to figure out who did it and what happened.
"My car wasn't stolen on that day."
So you're saying you sold your car on that day?
"No, I didn't sell my car. I still have my car."
Makes sense. If you sold your car, you'd have the money from it, but you're not much richer than you were. It's very implausible you'd have sold your car for less than, say, $300, above which you'd visibly be buying more; the average car sells for $12,000±0.5 oom, and $300 is 1.5 oom out, a probability of only 0.13% assuming a log-normal distribution over sale prices. So 99.87% this is instead explained by your car being stolen.
"I'm not claiming at all that my car is in the possession of someone else legitimately, I'm claiming that I still possess my car."
I mean, sure, in a society of car thieves, there are going to be a lot of claims that cars weren't stolen; everyone driving a car is of course going to say that the driver and the owner are the same person. Am I to believe that we live in a society of saints, where nobody would ever steal a car? Or that you have an extremely secure driveway and car, such that, no matter how motivated a thief may be, they're unable to ever steal your car? I've saw cases of other people stealing cars (e.g. trustworthy journalist saying their car was stolen
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yp…, car theft devices explaining how a car might be stolen
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74j…, report of a car theft happening too fast to stop
bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd16…), it's sure not impossible.
"I'm also not claiming that it wasn't stolen because I have an a priori argument about my security model. I'm claiming it wasn't stolen because I still have my car."
Okay, I'll admit, I do see the car I'm investigating in your driveway. But on April 22nd, when I walked past your driveway at 3 pm, there was no car in there. So it was clearly stolen at the time, and that still leaves something to explain.
"I was at work. I drove my car to work, and then drove back four hours later after my shift."
This is still consistent with the car thief realizing that they'd been spotted, and returning the car, hoping that nobody would notice. Well, I noticed!
"It sounds like you strongly suspect that a car has been stolen, because you have theoretical arguments for car theft being plausible in general, and are trying to find the evidence of the car theft after concluding that it occurred roughly as you expect."
Perhaps. Well, I've called the police, and the car thief is going to be, hehe, investigated, and we'll find out what really happened then.