Joined February 2020
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6 Jul 2024
Tentative chapter titles for my forthcoming memoirs:
1. Why I am a stud
2. Why I am ballsy
3. How I avoid taking shit from anybody
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The clavicular nosejob thing reminded me that plastic surgeons who do male rhinoplasties have some of the highest malpractice premiums because men who get nosejobs tend to be neurotic, unhappy with the results, and likely to sue
Sculptors can make a nose that looks right, they can also make a face that looks ugly (but real). Plastic surgeons can obviously make a nose that looks better than what you were given
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This is like when men say they don’t like fake tits. You just don’t notice the good ones
All nose jobs, without exception, look bad.
There is something incredibly subtle that makes the natural human nose look good on almost everyone, and nose jobs invariably disrupt this subtle thing.
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Sculptors can make a nose that looks right, they can also make a face that looks ugly (but real). Plastic surgeons can obviously make a nose that looks better than what you were given
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The capital requirements are so low to be an accredited investor that if you don’t meet them the highest leverage thing you can do is save more or get a better paying job.
Won’t get good dealflow anyways unless you have the human capital to quickly become an accredited investor
I think it’s time to revisit the accredited investor laws in the US.
Companies are staying private longer, where only accredited investors (aka rich people!) can invest. Retail investors can only come in after IPO, when much of the upside has already been captured.
These rules were created with the best of intentions, to protect regular people from scams - a noble idea. Unfortunately, in practice they've often made it illegal to get richer, unless you're already rich. A regressive tax!
We have to judge policies based on their outcomes, not on their intentions.
These are two possible routes I see:
1) Replace the rule with something merit-based, like a financial literacy test. Pass it and you're accredited. Having a qualification based on competency rather than your bank balance or income seems far more fair.
2) Remove the rule entirely. Let consenting adults assess their own risk. Disclosure requirements stay and fraud enforcement stays to punish bad actors.
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Median venture returns are probably 12%. No reason to assume a random person would do much better than this. And they can grow net worth faster by saving more or making more with less risk
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You can also already satisfy the requirement by getting the series 65, which is not hard to get
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Jun 12
You can tell David Hockney didn’t have a foot fetish because he never learned how to draw feet
RIP David Hockney. Everyone knows you for your pool boys, but I’m partial to this incredible depiction of dudes hangin out
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Jun 12
How much of that $1t could musk actually realize though. Gates could actually spend most of his money because it is relatively liquid. If Elon tried to sell his ownership the value of his companies would plummet
Jun 12
This (insane) IPO is the ultimate vindication of Elon’s ride or die investing philosophy. Compare to divest and diversify Gates who would be worth $1.3T if he had held onto his 45% of Microsoft post-IPO. EMH fans in the mud.
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Jun 12
Also who the fuck cares. There’s no practical difference between $100b and $1t anyways. You can’t even buy a bigger yacht at that point
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Jun 12
You will notice that the Buccee’s managers do not have time to tweet about how unfair it is that they only make as much as a primary care physician despite running critical transportation infrastructure and serving hundreds of thousands of people per year.
That darn doctor cartel is so powerful that Medicare pays us 50% of what it did in the 1990s and the work has become so miserable that most doctors are looking for early retirement.
Anyone know a better cartel manager?
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Doppelbanger retweeted
"Wilhelm estas absolutamente seguro que hace falta que me desnude para pintar el collar de coral?"
"Sísí, vos confía..."
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Doppelbanger retweeted
Jun 4
in the old days before homosexuality was mainstream, you could do this sort of platonic intimate stuff with your bros without everyone thinking you’re gay. in our modern gay obsessed culture people will immediately think you’re a homosexual.
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May 31
The real question is are men with yellow fever more or less likely to get this correct.
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Doppelbanger retweeted
May 27
I've spent all day refining the breasts of my latest sculpture. They have a tendency to grow as I develop them as I attempt to render them in a way that the viewer can "feel" the weight and suppleness, formed by posture and gravity. They should look realistic but idealized. Once I get to a certain stage I refine by using a rake tool to gradually present the fullness while making sure they aren't too large to get that across. For me a C-cup works best in sculpture to help infuse fertility. High riding nips, where the swell of the breasts resides slightly underneath. Perky but not too firm.
In painting Frazzetta knew how to do it. In sculpture, I can't think of a single household name who could. Michelangelo couldn't and for me Rodin's boobs were almost an afterthought.
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May 26
Tanning is the most altruistic thing you can do: look hot for other people's benefit while harming yourself.
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May 23
Eh lots of the value in PE is from multiple expansion, especially at the lower end of the market. I guess if it’s combined with bolt on acquisitions then it is real value creation since a larger business is less likely to fail but I don’t think that’s the main driver of returns
May 22
This is non-sense.
PE only makes money when they make a company more valuable. Debt paydown is almost always a small portion of the return. While sometimes cost reductions make a company more valuable, generally business buyers are pretty smart. They aren't going to pay up for a business that has been stripped. They will pay up for business that show top line growth, shifts to segments with more recurring revenue, etc. Most PE investments focus on growth.
The idea that PE isn't focused enough on the long term is truly wrong. Talk to anyone that has worked in a public company and there is intense focus on simply the next quarter. When they get to PE they are amazed at the focus on 3-5 years out. And BTW, even if we are going to sell in 3-5 years we also have to make investments so the next buyer has a good return in their 3-5 year hold after that. Way less short term focused.
Should we focus on 10-20 years out? While this sounds good, many investments focused on those types of time horizons are just a waste of money. Who knows what the world will look like in 20 years. If an investment can't be justified over the next 5 years then most times it is just a bad investment. I am sure there are limited exceptions but I am very skeptical.
The bottom line is PE only makes money if they build better businesses. Not every PE firm is successful and even the successful ones have deals that don't work. But there are also public companies and founder owned businesses that fail.
The success and returns of PE suggest that overall they are building better businesses and that is good for society as a whole.
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May 20
.@bronzeagemantis has many ideas worth funding
May 19
New blog post: The third wave of American philanthropy
Hundreds of billions of dollars in new philanthropic capital will soon become liquid. The OpenAI Foundation holds 26% of OpenAI, worth about $220B at today’s valuation. Anthropic’s seven co-founders have pledged to give away 80% of their wealth and have instituted the most aggressive donor matching program for employees in tech history.
How much does this all add up to? And how meaningful is that in the context of philanthropy today?
I was doing some simple napkin math to wrap my head around the scale of what’s coming, and radicalized myself in the process. I had dramatically underappreciated the scale of the philanthropic capital that’s about to become available and the corresponding gap in talent and organizations that will be needed to make the most of it.
This piece aims to directionally sketch the scale of what’s coming, the gap in operational capacity needed to absorb it, and what we can do to fill it.
(Link to full post in reply)
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Doppelbanger retweeted
I didn't know Helen of Troy could generate so much conflict.
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May 19
I remember overhearing a girl in a coffee shop telling her friends that she was starting ketamine therapy for depression and then added “but I do it most weekends already and I’m still depressed”
Trinity College Dublin's study questions ketamine's efficacy for depression, finding no added benefit over placebo. Concerns rise over ketamine's rapid adoption, safety, and lack of robust evidence, despite its growing use and market expansion. More on the research: mdsc.pe/4nwzs8N
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May 19
The problem is a lot of pain is psychosomatic and sham surgery cures it for many people. You need a control group that gets a placebo injection to know if it actually works. But anecdotally interesting
May 18
Take a sec and scroll through the QTs on this.
Almost every reply is someone with a story of BPC-157 healing something, whether a knee, a gut, a tendon, or a back.
The human data in BPC-157 is thin, basically three studies, but the mountain of "anecdata" is difficult to ignore.
Bullish.
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