Atomic physicist and embedded software engineer, general-purpose nerd. Forecasting, Linux, weight training, psephology, economics, Georgism, other nerdery

Joined February 2023
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know the passive investing rules
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I never feel more like an alien on this planet than when smart people are being negatively polarised into being extremely dumb. Elon is the classic case. Both in that he is one of the worst offenders, and in that people's valid judgement of him for his extremely dumb takes leads them to conclude that everything else associated with him is equally dumb. Perhaps it's true that orbital datacentres don't make business sense this decade*, I don't know. But the pants-on-head arguments about technical infeasibility, from people who ostensibly should know better, or who are definitely capable of deferring to others who do, or even a chatbot, and are instead deciding to turn off their brains and spout technical sounding nonsense instead make me feel like I'm from another dimension. (*they will one day though if humanity's energy use continues to grow - all power use on earth leads to warming, even without CO2 emissions, and most sunlight is in space. At some point we have to move energy-intensive things to space to get energy and not cook the planet) If SpaceX were some tiny startup who'd achieved nothing, or if it were just Musk opining about what he was going to do with a trillion dollars when he hadn't hired a single engineer yet, more scepticism would be warranted! And there is always a risk that Musk will have dumb brain farts and take the company in a bad direction. And he plays fast and loose with marketing and predictions, a lot of what he says can't be trusted. He it a total loose cannon, particularly when he's on tilt which happens way too often. But SpaceX isn't just Musk's tweets! The company actually has a lot of experience putting large numbers of satellites in orbit and making the economics work. Starlink is very profitable. They have talented engineers who have demonstrably solved many difficult technical problems to date. A little charity is warranted for the rest of the company regardless of Musk's public behaviour. People don't like Musk, for good reason. I get it! But it's crazy the extent to which this makes people totally turn their brains off, as if the company doing 80% of global mass to orbit annually, mostly their own satellites, doesn't know a thing or two about how to make satellites. I can feel in my bones that even me saying this will just make people assume I'm upset because I love Elon and think he can do no wrong - it's hard for people to even imagine someone is capable of holding separately in their mind Elon's flaws and SpaceX's virtues. (who am I kidding, nobody sees my tweets lol) To be honest I'm even inclined to defer to SpaceX somewhat on the business case for AI satellites. I'm not an expert here, and many people are saying the business case is poor, but if everyone is mind-killed by Elon hate, I have no idea if they're talking sense or not. I would only trust an expert's take if they dropped some shibboleths hinting that they are not a total partisan hack on the matter. I think it's totally insane to be so dismissive of the expertise, business and technical, of an extremely successful company. Peak hubris! People should also be careful not to be polarised into thinking AI satellites are an amazing and perfect idea just because of all the dumb arguments against them. Reversed stupidity isn't intelligence. (though I think sometimes reversed stupidity can make for good stock picks lol)
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All I can picture hearing it's named "Claude Fable"
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doubleunplussed retweeted
Replying to @xlr8harder
Oh shit, wonder if it's just increasing neuroplasticity. Like your brain is still messed up from Alzheimer's but if we shuffle things around a bit maybe we can get it kinda working for a bit longer. (if it works at all - my default assumption is things like this don't replicate)
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Thank Christ. The freedom to chose after the fact which parcel of shares each sale was, instead of it just being mandatory first-in-first-out made it impossible for your tax return to pre-fill this kind of thing even if your tax affairs were relatively simple.
🚨 Tax specialists have uncovered a sleeper clause in the federal budget bill designed to quietly inflate investor tax bills — and it's a rort. The bill which passed the lower house yesterday, introduces a mandatory "loss-ordering" mechanism for the first time in Australian tax history. Instead of cherry-picking how losses offset gains, investors will now be forced to burn through their oldest gains first — stripping away the 50% CGT discount and leaving newer gains fully exposed to the punishing new cost-base indexation regime from July 1, 2027. Say you bought shares in 2018 and again in 2024. You sell both at a gain, but you also have losses to offset. Previously, you'd apply those losses to your 2018 gains first — which already qualify for the 50% CGT discount, meaning less of them are taxable anyway. Under the new rules, you're forced to do exactly that — exhausting the discounted gains first and leaving your 2024 gains fully exposed to the new, harsher indexation rules. You end up paying more. This isn't an oversight. It's a deliberate revenue grab buried in fine print
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I keep imagining the current timeline as if it was a fictional story with poor writing "And then all the scifi authors who you'd really think would know better mocked and dismissed AI, some of them having been negatively polarised against it because they'd grown to hate some of their biggest fans, the Rationalists, whose predictions kept proving true" "Meanwhile roided-up meathead fitness influencers had less bad takes on AI just because their minds weren't rotted by ... well whatever was going on with the scifi Authors" (I love you Dr. Mike please don't hurt me with your enormous muscles)
Woooo!!!
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About disliking the Rationalists, I'm thinking of Greg Egan, not Ted Chiang - I don't know what Chiang thinks of the Rationalists. Egan has caricatures of them in some of his books.
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Ignore those cherry-picking noisy quarterly data - Australia's per-capita recession is over, with annual growth comparable to before the pandemic.
Great news, the economy is contracting again in per capita terms (QoQ)....
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Literally the picture in my mind for when the AI companies IPO. You think AI is going to continue to pop off, these are your counterparties - do you buy?
I made my first meme, inspired by an excruciating exchange I just had on the plane
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Holy incentives batman
#EXCLUSIVE: Stamp duty will be abolished for domestic violence victims in a key move in Thursday’s state budget. 📌 DETAILS: bit.ly/4nWRBge
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It's officially the future when platforms start banning *human*-written code
Flathub has updated their policy to explicitly ban the usage of AI / LLM in the development of any software. “Applications containing AI-generated or AI-assisted code, documentation, or other content are not allowed.” Flathub is a Flatpak powered “App Store for Linux”, popular among GNOME users.
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Underrated mechanism IMHO. Not dating-specific.
Replying to @GarrettPetersen
There's an adverse selection element. In a world where normal men ask women out, the man who asks you out is probably normal. In a world where asking out is a norm violation, the man who asks you out is a norm violator. Who knows what other rules he will break.
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doubleunplussed retweeted
I conceive of "social surface area that can lead to marriages" as a public good that we have mismanaged. If two people meet at a coffee shop and get married, the couple benefits enormously, the community benefits somewhat, and the coffee shop just gets $10 for 2 lattes.
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doubleunplussed retweeted
Blue Origin's New Glenn just blew up at LC-36 while attempting to Static Fire ahead of NG-4. nsf.live/spacecoast
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We kind of lucked out that LLM writing is (for now) recognisable. It feels like it didn't have to be that way. Since language is basically their jam, I'm even a little surprised to see it lagging vs other capabilities.
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I love noticing that I'm doing something that would seem somewhat inexplicable to an outside observer, even though it's totally sensible. It's a reminder how hard it is to infer people's reasons for things, which is one of those things I think people don't internalise enough. Why did that guy walk off the footpath briefly to go around a tree? Because an orb weaver often makes a web there and I'm going around it! Even if there's no web today, I don't trust myself to see it before walking into it so I just always go around. Looks weird but I don't want a spider in the face. Why is that guy wiggling a finger in his mouth whilst gargling mouthwash? Well it's a very foamy mouthwash you see, and you either have to take a break from gargling every few seconds to let the bubbles subside, or you can actively pop them with a finger, saves time! Why did your housemate passive-aggressively move your pot plant thirty centimetres, what reason could he possibly have other than to annoy you? It's because the cat was stepping in the pot and tracking dirt, and it only needed to be moved a little to prevent that!
Replying to @BecomingCritter
For sure. I just kind of like these guessing games - I reckon tonnes of things people do day-to-day for entirely sensible reasons end up looking inexplicable from the outside, I suspect because any one explanation seems unlikely, but the space possible explanations is large. So we probably can't guess the reason here, but if we knew it, it probably wouldn't seem that surprising.
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Europeans don't have AC, but Australians don't even have proper heating. When it's cold we use our air conditioners to cool the outside of our houses, and survive on what little waste heat this produces inside. Must be super inefficient but it's all we've got.
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Every time someone pointlessly interleaves their words with emoji like this, I can't help but visualise them IRL pausing to gesticulate wildly for each one, like a game of Charades *vigorously waves arms rightward like an aircraft marshaller* THE RENT *arms trace the outline of a money bag, one hand clasps the neck, the other traces out the dollar symbol* ON A 3BR HOUSE *steps forward, plants both feet firmly on the ground, raises arms in a triangle shape for the roof of a house* IN SYDNEY
** Renters alert ** When negative gearing on property was last abolished in mid-1985 ➡️ the rent 💰 on a 3br house 🏡 in Sydney increased by 43% over a 27 month period This was why the Labor government reversed ⬅️ the decision only 2 yrs later.
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Ha, rare good use of clickbait, baiting the people who are looking for a particular conclusion only to show them the opposite (The uncomfortable truth being that these are miracle drugs, which makes a certain kind of person super uncomfortable)
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My European AC-related anecdote: I was a student hanging out with a cute girl after dark in her dorm in Germany. She was like "It's really hot, I'm gonna open the window, but to stop all the bugs coming in I'll have to turn the lights off" I was fairly oblivious to this being mood-setting, because it seemed like a perfectly sensible thing to do in a place that has apparently never heard of either air conditioning or flyscreen
Can't wait for Europeans to discover modern technology
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