Venture takes time: More than a decade ago, I backed @elliptic in their first institutional round. Today the company announced a $120M Series D led by One Peak at a $670M valuation. Back then, "blockchain compliance & intelligence" wasn't a category. No regulatory framework, no institutional adoption, most of finance thought crypto would go away. But wherever new financial rails emerge, compliance becomes the chokehold – the layer every participant must pass through. Elliptic was building that layer on proprietary data that would compound over time. Many years later, two-thirds of global crypto volume runs through exchanges that rely on Elliptic. The same data moat that made them indispensable for crypto-native firms now makes them the AI-native compliance backbone for banks and governments moving on-chain and combatting crime. What this reinforces is that venture bets are often category bets: backing teams that define a market before it knows it exists, and along strategic chokepoints. And patience remains the most underrated edge in this business... Congratulations to Simone Maini, James Smith, Tom Robinson, Adam Joyce and the entire Elliptic team.

New year, new thoughts, link to essay below: 1/ Venture has developed a remarkable talent for discussing everything except the work. 2/ As the industry scaled, “portfolio construction” became a stand-in for seriousness: spray-and-pray vs concentration, reserves, fund size. Legible. Defensible. Often evasive. 3/ The market is full of ride-along funds – small & large – buying optionality and outsourcing the hard thinking. Present on the cap table, absent from the work. 4/ The parts that decide outcomes don’t fit in a memo. They happen in the territory: distribution forks, pricing philosophy, talent sequencing, the unglamorous constraints that shape the whole company. 5/ Venture only earns its place if it can produce serious outperformance. Otherwise it’s an expensive index – with worse liquidity and better dinner invitations. 6/ The common rebuttal is “you can’t know, therefore diversify.” Modest-sounding, but it quietly abandons the idea that venture is a craft. 7/ A producer-style fund doesn’t require clairvoyance. It requires a structure where decision-quality and attention can compound: meaningful ownership a falsifiable view of value creation. 8/ In Europe – smaller exits, harsher scaling constraints – right-sizing and ownership matter even more. They’re not vibes; they’re margin of safety. 9/ Full essay: The Producer’s Craft – why venture is elite curation, not a playlist. mgntc.com/blog/the-producers… (With thanks to @honam for inspiration.)

Thanks to @TauschFabian and Unicorn Bakery for hosting me and for the longer conversation around companies in the age of AI, investing, resilient funds or critical industries. Link: youtube.com/watch?v=zD8gj6S8… The key takeaways: (1) Everything is changing so that nothing changes = while immensely important, AI is just a normal progression of technology cycles (2) Build and grow resilient organizations = scale when you know what you get, when you can measure (3) Invest resiliently and creatively = fund sizes and portfolio originality matter, particularly in Europe In German 🇩🇪.

I wrote down some under-discussed thoughts on Europe's need for software, scale, assertiveness and ambition. Culture remains the primary obstacle, not capital. The longer I'm in this game, the more this becomes obvious to me. linkedin.com/pulse/europes-t…

Given the downstream causalities of deep capital markets, it seems so obvious to go for reforms and pan-European consolidation. We need to understand: those are superstar markets, not "national treasures". Only size and depth and dynamism will help. on.ft.com/4cNwK7T

I wrote down a few thoughts on complex transformations in software, often in critical markets. They are outsized opportunities and go against conventional risk in software. 💾 Low complexity risk —> low moat 🤖 High complexity risk —> enduring moat lnkd.in/dePvpD_b

On G2 to see @SimScale as the top simulation software. This is the most complex software market in the world, and one that is critical for the real world around us. It takes an enormous amount of dedication, time and product obsession to get here. Congratulations! cc: @dhcae

Lasting value is in whole systems, not isolated technologies! European tech policy still hasn't grasped this: pushing supply side capital or deep tech for its own sake, and forgetting how you build up companies for scale. A massive cultural shift needed. ft.com/content/320f35de-9a6c…

I had a chat with @Forbes and @davidprosserind on our work. We fund vastly ambitious companies addressing our largest challenges. We back theme-setters before the theme is there, with dedication. Occasionally, we help to design and architecture them. 🧲 forbes.com/sites/davidprosse…

Magnetic's founder @drosskamp has been named as one of Germany's Top 40 under 40 by @capitalMagazin . Annually, the publication names the country's leading young generation across society, sciences and business. We see this as a testament to his and our work - thank you!

Congratulations to ⁦@aware_app⁩ who are launching today: the app and Aware labs in Berlin, Hamburg and Frankfurt. Aware's offering is a step change for primary care and preventive health. We are high-conviction investors in the accessibility to healthcare, through tech.

👉🏼 I will be discussing the world of crypto and decentralized networks with @dapperlabs founder (and long-term collaborator) @Mik_Naayem and @cburniske of @placeholdervc this week. Hear "The Crypto Chronicles" with two legends. ⏱️ July 6, 3.50pm, on TOA Berlin's main stage.

Looking forward to covering the 🇪🇺🇩🇪 perspective at Hinterland next week!

New @elliptic research is tracking the fentanyl supply chain and its money flows