Forever and ever Perpetual futures have landed in America… and have the potential to re-orient finance as we know it substacktools.com/sharex/rmD…

The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…

This has long been my advice to a young person looking to break into journalism. Three steps: 1) Find some public data that most people are ignoring. 2) Really learn what it measures and how to aggregate and present it. 3) Through posting, become the expert everyone turns to.

the honest truth for VCs looking at prediction markets: investing in another aggregator, terminal, or social layer on top of polymarket is not venture scale the core PM trading market is real but it’s concentrating around a few winners and the margins for everyone else are thin the venture scale outcomes in prediction markets come from using the primitive to attack industries that are 100x larger than prediction markets themselves > pre-IPO event contracts: retail has never had access to private company trajectories. the demand has built for a decade with zero products. the global private equity market is $8T . a prediction market layer that gives retail exposure to pre-IPO outcomes doesn’t compete with polymarket. it competes with secondary share platforms and the entire private markets access industry > parametric insurance: a prediction market on “will a category 4 hurricane hit florida this season” that automatically pays out is a cheaper, faster, more transparent insurance product than anything traditional insurers offer. the global insurance market is $7T. prediction markets are the pricing mechanism underneath a new generation of insurance products > clinical trial markets: the pharma industry spends $50B annually on trials. prediction markets on drug approval probabilities create a real-time pricing layer for pharmaceutical risk that doesn’t exist today. a standalone platform for biotech prediction markets serves researchers, investors, patients, and regulators simultaneously the list goes on each of these is a standalone platform targeting an industry worth trillions where prediction markets are the mechanism but the product is something the end user already understands they use the same primitive to enter markets polymarket will never touch the VC opportunity in prediction markets is not the prediction market itself. it is what becomes possible when you take the primitive and point it at industries that have been waiting for better probability pricing infrastructure those are venture scale outcomes

This was an incredibly informative interview, and it was great to have the Chairman engage so openly on perps, prediction markets, defi, 24/7 trading, and the future of crypto in the US. We’ve rarely, if ever, had this type of openness from an acting regulator. This is a must listen if you care about this space or the future of capital markets in the USA.

Prediction market trading for funds and pro traders. Book a demo → calendar.app.google/pxy9grqP…

Imagine making 70-80k a year in the $500 apartment era.

nyt covers prediction markets accurately what stage of the cycle is this?

Ideal for a student who loves venture, startups, podcasts, social, and the internet. Come hang.

I wrote about some of the mechanics of these prediction market ETFs when they first filed. I’m not sure these specific implementations are a fit for etf markets today: open.substack.com/pub/whirli…

BREAKING: The SEC is set to release its so-called "innovation exemption" for tokenized stocks which will pave the path for trading digital versions of securities, per Bloomberg. Details include: 1. In a "surprise move," the SEC is leaning toward allowing the trading of tokenized assets 2. These tokenized assets would be tradeable on decentralized crypto platforms 3. The move could "reshape the landscape of the American stock market" 4. This would also be one of the US' biggest shifts into crypto infrastructure yet Tokenized assets are rapidly expanding.