Chief Macro Strategist, Clocktower Group. formerly at the Fed, White House, WSJ.
Joined March 2020
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2,422 Photos and videos
βThese discussions also suggest the U.S. intends to reshape the agreement substantially in ways that would be relatively favorable for Mexico and quite unfavorable for Canada.β
The USMCA is so Trump 1.0
@RajaKorman
responsiblestatecraft.org/trβ¦
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Jun 13
discussed SpaceX IPO and potential effect on the dollar
marketwatch.com/story/the-spβ¦
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Jun 11
canβt believe the iran war caused portfolio management fees to jump 4.8% in May and 23% y/y π€¦ββοΈ
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Jun 10
stocks will never go down
π The policy framework Anthropic just released calls for policymakers to seed capital accounts (like Trump Accounts) with "equity in AI companies, so that beneficiaries share directly in nearer-term gains from AI-driven growth": www-cdn.anthropic.com/files/β¦
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Eric Wallerstein retweeted
Jun 10
.@brettmatsumoto doing a great job and is going to make a wonderful BLS Commissioner. And a fantastic team of economists there to support him as well.
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Jun 10
front end rates a touch lower on this print. core looked decent to me
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come one, come all. waterβs warm fellas
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you are not bearish enough on Europe
*EURO AREA 1Q GDP FALLS 0.2% Q/Q; EST. 0.1%
good thing ECB is set to hike!
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last week, i debated Clocktower's China-based strategist on the dollar.
I laid out three key drivers of a strong USD: 1) US nominal growth outperformance, 2) Interest-rate differentials, 3) Hard power
read my side of it: open.substack.com/pub/ericwaβ¦
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... which translates to interest rate differentials
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which leads to inflows.
but foreign inflows into US assets are not all about credit. they're at record highs thanks to US equities position at the fulcrum of the AI, defense, and tech boom.
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172k monthly payrolls and some people will still try to convince you that growth is weak and AI is the only thing holding up the economy
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great chatting with Phil. good mix of breadth and depth in this convoβFed, US-China, Nato; etc. hope you enjoy.
Jun 4
The Iran conflict has reshaped the macro outlook and the winning trades have more upside than ever before.
I sat down with @ericwallerstein to unpack the geopolitical backdrop for investors and discuss specific trade ideas across the US and Europe.
Eric has worked at the Fed and in the White House with some of the best thinkers and strategists in the world.
This is a must-listen conversation for every investor.
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 - Kevin Warsh's Fed regime
1:08 - Where rates go from here
3:46 - US dollar bull case
5:04 - US banks trade
8:19 - NATO breakup thesis
12:01 - Steelman case for Europe
13:28 - Poland, Norway, Sweden trade
15:52 - The 2 Europes trade
20:50 - US exceptionalism and Iran
31:56 - Working with Fed Governor Miran
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the largest buyer of gold last year was⦠a digital dollar
Jun 2
Gold replaces US Treasuries as worldβs top reserve asset, ECB says giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticβ¦ via @financialtimes
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if your dedollarization story is predicated on offshore dollar demand you are ngmi
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Pulte please use your dual roles to transfer over a 2.5% mortgage to me π
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