Joined October 2020
- Tweets 1,080
- Following 160
- Followers 201,530
- Likes 365
684 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
Mar 12
💥 @Polymarket Tracking is Now Live
⇣ Paste an event
⇣ Track a wallet
• Follow the action
🔔#DropsBot will notify you when something interesting happens - odds changes, new bets and activity from your favorite profiles.
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👀 The Most Watched Traders on @Polymarket by Profile Views.
👉 telegra.ph/The-Most-Popular-…
Inside the article, you’ll also find a one-click setup button to track these traders in #DropsBot.
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Jun 12
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iranian media says the U.S.–Iran memorandum is moving forward, with major sections nearly finalized, though Tehran says the deal still requires final sign-off.
🕊 The biggest moves on @Polymarket:
• Permanent peace deal — 41%
• Nuclear deal — 30%
• Hormuz normalizes — 20%
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Jun 8
⚡️ Fed hike odds in 2026 jumped to 55% on @Polymarket
Stronger jobs, sticky inflation, oil pressure, tariffs, and Wall Street pushing rate-cut calls into 2027.
🔹Track the Fed Rates:
55% Hike in 2026?
80% 0 cuts in 2026?
94% No change in July
32% End-2026 Fed rate: 4.0%
56% Hike by October meeting
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Jun 2
🍪@willo2_Poly says he got cooked for almost $500K on @Polymarket.
He wasn’t wrong about the event.
Strategy sold $BTC before the deadline, but the SEC filing came after it.
This is not the first time Polymarket got stuck between facts, wording, and oracle logic.
🔻1,000 disputed markets in 2026 — already more than 2025 total.
Jun 2
I was just scammed for $500K by Polymarket.
I am "willo2", the top holder of YES on "MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin by May 31st".
Here's what happened:
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Jun 2
🚩Top resolution controversies by market volume:
• $269M US Forces “Enter Iran?”
Was a brief mission enough to count as “entering” Iran?
Outcome: YES
• $242M Zelensky Suitgate
What counts as a “suit”? Media said one thing, the market ruled another.
Outcome: NO
• $7M Ukraine x Trump Minerals Deal
Critics said there was no finalized deal yet. Market still resolved YES.
• $2.25M Titan Submarine Found?
Did debris count as the submarine being “found”?
Outcome: YES
• $2.1M Barron Trump / $DJT Memecoin
The dispute: Was Barron Trump involved in or behind DJT? The ruling became controversial and later handling was challenged.
Final status: NO / later fixed for YES holders
• $133K Trump–Xi Call
Trump said the call happened. The market wanted stronger public confirmation.
Resolved: NO
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May 31
⚡️Pandemic odds moved higher in May.
🦠Hantavirus cases tied to the cruise outbreak reached Spain, the U.S. moved to block Ebola import risk with stricter travel measures, and Brazil is investigating a suspected Ebola case.
🔹 @Polymarket Events:
11% New pandemic in 2026
6% Hantavirus pandemic
10% Ebola pandemic
6% New Coronavirus pandemic
31% Ebola case in the US by June 30
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May 27
🏔 @Polymarket says altseason isn’t here yet, but hyperliquid:native is already running ahead of the pack with 86% odds on its closest ATH.
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May 12
🔮 @Polymarket gives @AnthropicAI an 87% chance to be valued higher than @OpenAI in 2026.
69% Anthropic IPO first
60% OpenAI releases a social network
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May 4
⚡️ @elonmusk vs @sama. Whose AI lawyer wins in court?
Elon Musk says OpenAI betrayed its original nonprofit mission.
OpenAI says Elon is trying to kneecap a rival while building xAI.
🔮 @Polymarket odds:
Elon wins the case? — 34%
Sam Altman testifies? — ~87%
Musk and Altman settle? — 30%
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May 4
👀Your group chat’s foreign policy expert starter pack:
Live probabilities, price changes and instant notifications.
📡Global Conflict Radar
t.me/Drops?start=pm_GlobalCo…
32% Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May?
43% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
30% Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25% Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
10% Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by Dec 31?
🕊 Peace Deal Watchlist
t.me/Drops?start=pm_PeaceDea…
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? 35%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal June 30? 10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? 28%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? 50%
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Apr 29
🇺🇸 Donald Trump Predictions & Odds
$431M has been traded on Trump markets on @Polymarket this year alone. Meanwhile, Trump's approval just hit a term low of 34%. 👀
88% chance Trump insults someone today
75% chance he declassifies UFO files
3% chance he renames a strait after himself
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Apr 27
🚀JPEG market is back
Blue chip floors last week :
🦍@BoredApeYC is 9.59 $ETH 113.8%
🐧@pudgypenguins is 5.26 $ETH 53.4%
⛩ @Azuki is 1.17 $ETH 102.4%
Set up #DropsBot once, never miss a pump:
• Floor & change alerts on any collection
• Pump/Dump triggers
• Whale list activity notifications
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Apr 27
Add NFT by Collection Name or Contract to track floor prices, changes and unusual Buying or Selling Activity.
t.me/drops
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Apr 25
🛢 Brent crude is back above $100.
@Polymarket odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May:
• Was: 82%
• Now: 38%
🇮🇷🇺🇸 What's happening: Iran seized 2 container ships in the Strait of Hormuz on April 22. The US has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports since April 13, and roughly 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.
On-chain reaction:
Hyperliquid trader 0x6...836 just opened a $20.09M long, one of the largest oil positions on the platform.
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