Writing about commodities, energy, and macro @ thefictitiouscapital.com/ | Vibes-maxxing

Joined November 2021
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“Men make their own history, but they do not make it just as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly encountered, given and transmitted from the past.” — Marx Everyone knows the world is changing in ways we don't fully understand, even though most of us pretend to. And that's okay, the world is a complex system. My newsletter (link in bio) is designed to explain key components that shape our global system, dispel mainstream myths, and provide frameworks to better understand events as they unfold. Ultimately, the goal is to be better able to shape the future. This is a 🧵of 🧵's to consolidate all the newsletter pieces. Share, subscribe, and engage!
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AI is cool and all but -- major centralization risk -- accelerates social fragility and inequality -- shows the disaster of capitalist planning of resources (dropping everything for DC build out) -- delusional about labor impact (companies firing will rehire 2x) -- kills braincells while feeding a faux sense of empowerment Tech is cool, the social context/relations of it's emergence are not.
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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There are two people I wish were still around to comment on the AI era: David Graeber & David Foster Wallace.
AN ACTUAL GOOD THING TO COME FROM AI In today’s newsletter, I wrote about our new chat with @aidenjohnsonn_ and how stories like his are far more white-pilling than the typical “one day this might cure cancer” form of AI boosterism.
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Fictitious Capital retweeted
Bro, I'm so fucking tired of this AI shit. You pour 8–10 years into mastering a craft late nights, brutal feedback, real scars from real failures. Then some model trained on millions of stolen data (including yours) spits out better work in 4 seconds flat. And the replies? "This is amazing Future is here" We're not progressing. We're enthusiastically building the machine that makes our entire skillset worthless and calling it innovation.
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People who say Arsenal are a defensive team don't know what they're seeing. Arsenal fans criticizing Arteta genuinely don't deserve to be a part of this journey. He's perfected the python squeeze, now it's time to add venom to the bite. Offensive: -- 2nd in PL for goals scored & chances created -- 1st in UCL group stages for xG -- 3rd in Europe for field tilt (behind just City and PSG) Defensive (mind blowing): -- 1st in Europe for goals, xGA, and big chances conceded. -- 1st fair play / disciplinary record in PL (no red cards) -- No penalties conceded in PL This team went essentially unbeaten across the UCL. The most offensive team in the world wasn't able to score from open play across 120 mins. Arteta just needs to make the team more ruthless and move past the likes of Odegaard and Gyokeres!
Overall, it's incredible to see how Arteta's 5-phase plan has panned out. The man is a genius, and what he's done and how he's done it warrants many levels of adoration. Arsenal are the best team in the world, and a penalty shootout loss to a team that only exists for the CL isn't going to change that. But now that he's won a major trophy, he needs to take the handbrakes and create a ruthless team. Right now the team is resolute, not ruthless. And that evolution cannot have Odegaard & Gyokeres at the core. Saka is incredible but not the maverick he once was. Eze has improved but lacks the level of fitness and concentration that's needed. The need for brilliance needs to be more shared than it has been.
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Overall, it's incredible to see how Arteta's 5-phase plan has panned out. The man is a genius, and what he's done and how he's done it warrants many levels of adoration. Arsenal are the best team in the world, and a penalty shootout loss to a team that only exists for the CL isn't going to change that. But now that he's won a major trophy, he needs to take the handbrakes and create a ruthless team. Right now the team is resolute, not ruthless. And that evolution cannot have Odegaard & Gyokeres at the core. Saka is incredible but not the maverick he once was. Eze has improved but lacks the level of fitness and concentration that's needed. The need for brilliance needs to be more shared than it has been.
Ref cost us big time. Approach after the first 25 minutes wasn’t good enough. Subs were poor - limited impact/negative impact. Saka & Ødegaard in particular are no longer linchpins of this side - the latter should really be sold this summer. Very clear that if we build around the right people then we’ll be back and have this opportunity next year.
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Fictitious Capital retweeted
I'm not gonna lie, the @Meta layoffs are some of the most dystopian I've ever seen. They got told to work from home, they were sent the emails at 4AM in the morning. Those who weren't impacted have software on their computer that tracks their every move, preparing AI to take their job as well. They're literally training the AI that will eliminate their position as well. Meanwhile, Meta is raking in RECORD PROFITS. I am a massive, unapologetic AI enthusiast. Yet, this is NOT the future I had in mind. I wish for Meta to crash and burn. This is not the way. Literally nobody benefits from this.
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This is a really important point -- to counter. Nations like Pakistan can't be fooled into thinking this can be localized, or that it even should be. What Sualeh did is great, but not relevant for Pakistan. The country needs to focus on the basics: industrialization & broad scale social development. You can have 10 unicorns in Pakistan and it won't change the reality for the millions of citizens.
This is the age of knowledge capital. We show little aptitude for attracting or cultivating it. This is the most important factor to compete globally and for creating globally scalable businesses.
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For countries like Pakistan, massive investment in domestic infrastructure & breaking the cycle depicted in the image below is literally a question of survival. The whole notion of services/IT led growth is a farce. The foundation needs to be a state led investment campaign to food and energy availability/affordability. This will be hugely, progressively stimulative for the economy. But alas, the political economy is the issue. More spread wealth, more domestic infra, etc will challenge the extractive chokehold the elite have on the masses to fund their exuberant lifestyles.
Petrol at Rs 30/litre in Pakistan sounds crazy. It is not. What is crazy is the policy failure that prevents it. Petrol is around Rs 300/litre today, excluding government levy, here's how it can effectively be Rs 30/litre. People do not consume petrol for its own sake; they use it to travel. The average Pakistani rides a motorbike. A fuel-efficient motorbike can travel about 60 km on one litre. An efficient electric scooter can travel about 30 km per kWh, so it needs only 2 kWh to cover the same 60 km. What should 2 kWh cost in Pakistan? Pakistan is one of the best places in the world for solar, with an all-in LCOE cost of around 5 cents per kWh. The electricity cost is 10 cents, or Rs 30/litre of distance travelled! The Rs 30/litre calculation remains the same for cars. The 300-versus-30 gap is the cost of bad policy. It reflects billions of dollars of saving that could instead finance EV infrastructure: charging, distribution, battery swapping, and smart pricing software etc. - boosting much-needed domestic investment. Since solar is highly modular. You do not need massive scale to get reasonable efficiency. That creates business and employment opportunities for small domestic power producers. Instead, Pakistan leaned into large fossil-fuel plants financed by dollar-denominated borrowing and guaranteed returns. Local firms face credit constraints, but solar creates a natural collateralizable cash flow through electricity sales to the grid. With the right regulatory framework, this could have unlocked large private domestic investment, and employment. Battery swapping is another area where small local businesses could have emerged and scaled. Electricity enables smart pricing. When solar supply is abundant, prices can fall, and poor households and firms can shift usage to cheaper hours - automatic demand stabilization Better air quality would mean longer, healthier lives and higher productivity. That is a growth multiplier Green technology industries could be developed domestically with the right industrial policy, easing balance-of-payments pressure while raising employment and investment. Instead, Pakistan chose imported-fuel power plants, protected a backward-looking domestic auto sector, and raised electricity prices by burdening them with the fixed costs of those plants and heavy taxation, slowing EV adoption. Then came the net-metering fiasco, all to keep zombie power plants alive. Pakistan’s energy policy may be the clearest example of a broken nervous system. I hope someone fixes it, because people are paying the price, 300-versus-30
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Fictitious Capital retweeted
Replying to @WelBeast
Hard to put into words what it feels like to have been put through the wringer for 15 years, then come agonizingly close to glory in the last 5 years, only to be weeks way from it all having been for nothing. Plus the drop off next year will mean a mini-rebuild needed.
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Fictitious Capital retweeted
Replying to @KhurramHusain
I have a lot of respect for your work but I think it’s pertinent to consider 3 things: 1. On what basis can Pakistan be a sustainable peacemaker? A country will such a weak foundation & social/economic/security issues can never really be taken seriously. 2. How much is this just China, and maybe a little bit of Saudi, pulling the strings? 3. Is this ceasefire just a cover for military build up? Is Pakistan, intentionally or not, playing a role in this deception?
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Not a renowned economist quoting market cap as a measure of wealth 💀
How Pakistan made the world over 3 trillion dollars richer On April 7, the world edged toward Trump's 8pm ultimatum that "a whole civilization will die tonight." By mid-afternoon, Polymarket gave less than a 5% chance for a ceasefire. But then in a flurry of last-minute diplomacy led by Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif, ceasefire odds shifted from near-impossibility to 100%, as both U.S. and Iranian leadership publicly acknowledged the important role played by Pakistan. The sharp shift in probability of ceasefire from near-zero to certainty, allows us to estimate cleanly the market value of Pakistan's successful diplomacy. There was a sharp jump of 2.9% in S&P500 around the ceasefire announcement. The reaction was similar the world over. Global markets represent about $125T, so a 2.9% jump represents a gain of 3.6 trillion dollars for the world. Pakistan helped create TEN times its own GDP for the world! For me, the best part is not the trillions of dollar, but seeing Pakistan on the world stage as a peace maker. I hope Pakistan runs with this new identity by promoting peace not only abroad, but also at home. That means moving away from politics of division and exclusion, and treating every citizen as its own.
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Fictitious Capital retweeted
Hussein Saleh lost 8 members of his family in an Israeli strike on their home, including his pregnant wife. He found the head of his young daughter amid the rubble. “When I picked up her head, everything changed. Something in my heart broke and went silent.” It is one of the most heartbreaking stories @NadaOHomsi and I have worked on during the war. Nothing could justify such a horrific attack.
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There's delusional imperialist bootlickers, and then there's him:
Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif: Pakistan has changed forever. The world now looks at Pakistan with respect and honor.
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Pakistan, Gulf countries and others celebrating the “ceasefire” should be deeply ashamed honestly. Anything short of direct action against Israel is just more bowing down to Zionist terrorists.
There were no ‘targets’ - these are residential buildings and hundreds have been reportedly killed. This is what Israel has been doing in Gaza and in Lebanon for the past three years: targeting civilian infrastructure in order to enact mass casualties, chaos and destabilization.
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Remember there is no ceasefire (or negotiations) with terrorists (Zionists).
I have just watched an Lebanese man tell Al Jazeera how he was on his way home and he saw a strike and just knew his family was gone He spoke to seeing his family body parts everywhere including his little girls head Sorry Israel is such a disgusting nation
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I have just watched an Lebanese man tell Al Jazeera how he was on his way home and he saw a strike and just knew his family was gone He spoke to seeing his family body parts everywhere including his little girls head Sorry Israel is such a disgusting nation
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"The Romans occupied England in the 5th century, so anyone of Roman descent has a historical claim to the land." It's one of the best sketches I've ever seen, it is so accurate and highlights the situation in Palestine.
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I’ve been a yuuggeee fan of Whoop for almost 10 years now so this is amazing! If there are people still out there that haven’t tried it out, highly recommend*! *I also have a Whoop 4 band you can try for free for 2 months.
BREAKING: WHOOP RAISES $575M AT $10.1B VALUATION  I am pleased to announce that we’ve raised $575M at a $10.1B valuation to accelerate our mission of unlocking human performance and healthspan globally. This round was led by Collaborative Fund with participation from 2PointZero Group, Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), Mubadala Investment Company, Abbott, Mayo Clinic, Macquarie Capital, Glade Brook, B-Flexion, IVP, Foundry, Accomplice, Affinity Partners, Promus Ventures, and Bullhound Capital alongside a group of individual investors including Cristiano Ronaldo, LeBron James, Rory McIlroy, Virgil van Dijk, and Mathieu van der Poel. This investor group and this moment reflect a powerful evolution underway for Whoop and the broader healthcare market. Whoop was born in performance - trusted by the best athletes in the world to train, recover, and compete at the highest level. That foundation remains core to who we are. You see that in the iconic athlete investors joining this round.  But it also represents our push into broader health.  In the past 12 months, WHOOP has received medical clearances, launched blood testing, and created a platform that has saved lives. Abbott and Mayo Clinic - two of the most respected and influential institutions in global healthcare - are now investors in Whoop. These are organizations that have shaped modern medicine. Their decision to partner with us is a clear validation of where our technology is headed. Healthcare systems around the world are reactive. For too long, they have waited for people to get sick, then intervene. Chronic disease is rising and costs continue to climb. At Whoop, we believe the future looks fundamentally different. We are building the most powerful, personal, preventive health platform in the world - powered by continuous biometric data, advanced analytics, and AI to help people understand their bodies and improve their health in real time. I am grateful to our team, our members, and our partners for believing in this vision. I’ve been building this company for 14 years and I’ve never been more excited for the future.
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2 years ago. We’re witnessing late cycle behavior. There’s always a surge of energy before the end.
Replying to @Vinncent
Absolutely. A dying system globally, with Israel as the poster child, is going to ramp up violence and brutality. Gets worse before it gets better.
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Fictitious Capital retweeted
Here is the 1989-2026 path of our published research on the Middle East, with particular emphasis on the role of oil, arms & conflict as vehicles of income redistribution & differential accumulation. Add your comments/questions/opinions: capitalaspower.com/casp-foru…
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