$MRLN — my longest and most comprehensive update ever. 25 sections, 12 appendices, 100 GB of flight data, contracts and filings parsed into one piece.
Anduril just printed $14B. Shield AI $2.7B. Saronic $9.25B. The whole autonomous defense category is re-rating in front of everyone, and there's exactly one crewed-aircraft autonomy pure-play you can buy on a US exchange.
$674M company. Free float of maybe 3.6 to 5 million shares. IBKR borrow hit 99.93% in April. Almost nothing to short, almost nothing to buy.
A pre-revenue defense name doesn't tell you much through earnings, so you read it three other ways: the org chart, the airframes, and the contract trail. All three moved this month.
Org chart: a former Secretary of the Navy on the board whose other seats are Fincantieri, Saronic and Kongsberg. An SVP Engineering out of the X-47B and MQ-25 carrier autonomy programs. Three customer-facing P&L lanes, plus five DC capture roles posted in nine days.
Contract trail: a first-ever Missile Defense Agency award showing up on USAspending. A GE Aerospace co-development deal putting Merlin's stack on a flight management system installed across 14,000 aircraft. A KC-135 program drawing engagement from active-duty Air Mobility Command officers and a retired four-star.
Then the calendar. Six catalysts I'd rate top priority in the 111 days between now and the Sept 16 lockup. HONA Investor Day. Farnborough. Q2 earnings. The lockup itself. A KC-135 demo window. Most front-loaded quarter this stock has had since it went public.
Full breakdown covers capital structure and the conversion-date-reset math, the contract pipeline vehicle by vehicle, four scenario valuations, the bear case written honestly, the full risk register, and a 20-item watchlist with exact tripwires.
Free for all. Read it before the calendar starts firing.
shawarmacapital.substack.com…
Long
$MRLN. Research synthesis, not investment advice.