The best buys never feel good. The best sells always give you pause. Your counterparty isn’t just the person on the other side of the trade. It’s also yourself.

On a break from X for a bit but back to regular programming after the holidays. I’ll check back in near Christmas with some gifts for people. Stay tuned.

Sold $NIGHT when it filled the candle, didn’t expect it trying to fill the listing wick. Twas a crazy $WET night for enjoyoors.

“My rockets are bigger than your rockets.” Billionaire pettiness hits different.

Huge fan of this kind of design for a home robot companion. Feels less dystopian “planning to kill you” to now giving Baymax vibes. I always assumed the East would lead in humanizing home robots given how deeply embedded they are in pop culture.

$ZEC is kind of in an interesting area. Some quick thoughts, bits and bobs on Zcash and $CYPH: There’s some profit-takers noting the double top near mid ~$700s, yet we can’t deny the pent-up demand and the cypherpunk narrative that’s gaining real traction today. People are genuinely asking if “this time is different?” By now it’s clear though there’s not just relative strength, but Zcash is the one-man wrecking ball of this alt season, standing alone. OI is back to ~1.11B (down 15% from peak) and funding sits neutral to slightly positive, dropping dramatically from the spike we saw during last week’s dump with leverage unwound. Anything can change, of course, but this is setting up for a shallower dip this time than people expect. If you sold the top at $700 that's great. I'm viewing the downside risk around $580 and 500. At $580, that's roughly 1:1 R/R to the local highs, with a lower probability of hitting $500 again. LTFs currently exhibiting indecision and extended wicks, tight ranges with traders seeing if this zone around $650-675 is fair value. If we do see < $600, the hope is we'll produce our higher low and will be momentary. I'm also thinking about $CYPH... Is @cypherpunktech worth a bid? They TWAP’d 203,775 ZEC at $245 avg ( valued at ~$138M now) and aim for 5% of supply (roughly 1M ZEC). The DAT fatigue is real and everybody knows the playbook now, but there might be an opportunity here. Fresh narrative, no copycat DATs (yet), Winklevoss affiliation, and a coin that actually has momentum and enthusiastic buyers. $BMNR hit ~4x NAV premium at its peak. Given the fatigue with DATs, that might be ambitious but it doesn't mean we can't trade at a premium for an asset that has momentum. If you're in the camp that Zcash can hit several thousands this cycle, this is the amplified bet. You have people like Naval calling Zcash “Bitcoin’s insurance policy” and @CryptoHayes saying it might be the last 1,000x in crypto left. Some things to remember about CYPH: Shares will dilute via the $200M ATM. They have ~$68.6M cash post-raise (Oct $58.9M round led by Winklevoss Capital). With Zcash expanding fast, we'll see more issuance coming sooner than later to fund the next buys if history is any indication with BMNR, i.e., shares will dilute so timing this buy can be the tricky part, but CYPH needs to be part of the calculus now if we're thinking about Zcash.

Anybody getting into Riftbound here? Picked up a bunch of prize cards and exclusives from China. Probably missed the boat on OP13, etc.

The @infinex TGE is approaching, and there are several ways to get $INX. One of crypto’s most promising super-apps is setting up one of the fairest, most community-aligned distributions in the space. 1) Holding a Patron NFT grants a guaranteed allocation of INX There's 100,000 Patron NFTs and 10B INX supply, so each Patron receives 100,000 INX at launch. uPatrons receive one-tenth of that amount. This is the most direct way to obtain INX. Patron NFTs are currently the best performing NFTs on the day. 2) Crates via Craterun INX can also be obtained through “crates,” which distribute vouchers redeemable at the token launch. Crates are earned by users that qualify through platform activity or engagement. Each crate contains vouchers with specific redemption terms, such as FDV tiers expiry dates, giving holders a change to purchase INX during the TGE. Crates are awarded to several groups of users based on activity and involvement. Eligible groups include top performers from BullRun, historical Infinex users, Patron and XGP holders, wallets with substantial perp-trading volume from existing perps dexes (GMX, HL, Aster, etc.), and "CT Mafia" cohort of the top 5K accounts on X selected for consistent on-chain participation. Qualifying in any category results in crate allocations that can be redeemed for INX. 3) Sonar Pubic Sale A public sale on Sonar will provide an additional avenue to acquire INX. This sale expands access beyond Patron holders and crate recipients, offering another opportunity to purchase the token when it goes live.

The acrobat and Itoi on Physical: Asia today were awesomeeeee

$PUMP looks interesting to me. Hasn’t broken the downtrend but coiling a bit and at an inflection point to determine direction soon. This seems to be setting up for some intrigue as people make a scene out of the ~41M cliff unlock on the 14th, adding around 2.8% to supply. You can see the indecision on the chart right now but I have a feeling this is poised for a breakout. We haven’t seen “bullish unlocks” manifest in a long time, but we’ll know soon.

It's hard to keep up with @yieldbasis, because everything about it is so complicated. But this presents an opportunity. With YB, my edge is simply that I pay attention. And from what I can tell, $YB is currently undervalued. Here's a brief overview. - Devs have confirmed that Yieldbasis generated ~$500K in profit for YB stakers in October. This will be paid when fee switch is turned on - For comparison, during the same period Curve generated ~$1M in profit, which is of course paid to staked CRV - Yieldbasis TVL has to be migrated to new contracts, which should be deployed very shortly - But once that happens, the next two items on the roadmap are: 1) fee switch, and 2) increase loan from Curve so that Yieldbasis TVL cap can be raised from $150M -> $500M - The preparatory steps for these two roadmap items have already been undertaken, and only blocker is the TVL migration - Once TVL goes up 3x, presumably profit will also increase 3x. So maybe $1.5M per month. Again, for context Yieldbasis will be making more profit than Curve - At $0.5, YB has a market cap of about $50M. But only a fraction of that is currently staked and eligible for rewards once fee switch is flipped - YB emissions are considerable, but not too bad given the profit being generated. Team and investor unlocks begin April 1st. (But even then, it's likely @newmichwill picked investors and team members inclined to stake.) - Finally, I'm bullish BTC and crypto for Q4 and Q1. I think volatility will increase, meaning more revenue for Yieldbasis Likely reasons why YB is undervalued - Confusion and uncertainty about the core protocol and how it generates revenue - Confusion about revenue amount, esp because fee switch isn't active yet - Uncertainty about migration to new contracts - Uncertainty about securing the increased loan from Curve - Ignorance about token emissions, esp the choice of ybBTC to stake or not stake, which affects protocol profit and YB emissions - Lingering bad sentiment for altcoins from the 10/10 crash Final thoughts If you know enough about Yieldbasis to not be worried about the things above, then you have an edge. Again, many elements of Yieldbasis are very complicated, which makes people reluctant to hold YB. I think YB is almost as important and valuable as CRV for the Curve ecosystem, but the price does not reflect that. As more people realize that CRV and YB are symbiotic, and as it becomes clear that expansion of Yieldbasis is the core driver for the growth of Curve - I think YB price will increase. In the very short term, fee switch and TVL cap increase are immediate and powerful catalysts.

$STBL is starting to look interesting.. One of the big runners in September along with $ASTER, $AVNT and $XPL. Reclaim of the 4H 50EMA, has a little bit of work to do and flip the S/R, but keep your eyes peeled for strength. This one ran in sync with the aforementioned quite a bit two months ago, it might do it again. No strong opinion on the project itself, I'm indifferent to it, but it's low float, low MC and think it can re-rate and scam pump with the right conditions. Monitoring.