Daniel Kahneman - the psychologist who won a Nobel in economics - spent his life proving one thing: your confidence is lying to you
A bat and a ball cost $1.10. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. The answer "10 cents" jumps to mind instantly. It's wrong (it's 5 cents) - and ~50% of students at Harvard, MIT and Princeton say it without checking.
That gap is his whole point: the fast, intuitive mind builds a clean story from almost nothing, and the feeling of certainty has nothing to do with being right.
"Confidence is a feeling, not a judgment."
"Stock pickers can't develop intuition - there isn't enough regularity for it to form."
"You can build a very coherent story out of very little information."
~45 min, free. how your mind fools you - from a man who studied it for 50 years ↓
Nassim Taleb sat down with Daniel Kahneman - two of the sharpest minds on risk ever - and the takeaway was blunt: stop trying to be smart
Kahneman's prospect theory explains why almost nobody can do what Taleb does
We're wired to hate the steady trickle of small losses his strategy needs - even when one huge win more than pays for all of them
So you structure it the other way: tiny safe bets plus a few wild ones, never the comfortable middle.
"You'd rather be antifragile than intelligent - any time."
"Trial and error is really just trial with small error."
"Make your gains in small bites. Take your losses all at once."
~1 hr, free. two legends on risk, prediction, and how to win without forecasting ↓