"AI is as big as the internet and only as big."
Benedict Evans, ex-a16z partner, just gave the most rational AI take I've heard this year on lenny's podcast.
While everyone panics about job losses, he pulled out the receipts.
Here's what the data actually shows:
Spreadsheets were supposed to kill accounting.
Visicalc in 1979 compressed 20-hour tasks into 15 minutes. Lotus 1-2-3 followed. Then Excel. Then cloud ERPs.
50 years of financial automation.
What happened to accountant employment? It went up. 60% increase in CPAs.
The Jevons paradox: when modelling got cheaper, companies did more of it. They hired more junior analysts, built more complex models, spent more on the function, not less.
Evans' framing changed how I think about this:
The question isn't "what percentage of my job can AI do?"
The question is "is this a task or a job?"
Elevator operators had a task. Get people from floor A to floor B. Automatic elevators replaced that completely. We don't even think of elevators as "automatic" anymore.
accountants had a job. adding numbers was just one task inside it. the real work was "experience, authenticity, judgement, reference, curation, suggestion."
spreadsheets couldn't touch that. and neither can AI, yet.
here's the part that should make doomers uncomfortable:
OpenAI and Anthropic, the companies building the technology, are both expanding headcount, not shrinking it.
if the very companies building AI are hiring more people, the idea that every enterprise will "buy chatgpt tomorrow and fire everyone in two weeks" is, in evans' words, held by "morons."
his take on where we are:
"if you're gonna make the internet comparison, we're in 1997."
early. exciting. deeply uncertain about what comes next.
most of AI's potential hasn't been realised. the killer apps haven't been built yet. we don't know what the google or amazon of AI will look like.
what should you actually do?
1. figure out what your job actually is, not the tasks, the job
2. if your work is "experience, judgement, curation", you're probably fine
3. if your work is "press button, get output", that's the danger zone
4. distribution is becoming the ultimate moat as software gets easier to build