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Pinned Tweet
5 Dec 2025
🚀 Just checked my Polymarket stats and I’m RANK #5172 with over $12K in gains. Mom said “stop gambling,” I said “it’s forecasting.” 😎📈 @Polymarket
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Jun 10
Secure bets, solid rewards. 🥂
Sitting comfortably in the top 1.68% on Polymarket with $706 in LP rewards. We’re just getting started. 🚀 #Crypto #Polymarket #airdrop #PredictionMarkets #Web3
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Jun 10
Will Seoul hit 17°C today? 📉
@Polymarket is eyeing South Korea’s weather for June 10. Right now, "Yes" sits at just 14% odds, making it a risky but high-reward play. With a $27.43 entry, the payout is a cool $202!
Got the ultimate forecast or just feeling lucky?
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Securebet retweeted
May 22
11 Best Weather Forecasting Models for Polymarket Markets Right Now (Global Regional Breakdown)
Understanding their regional strengths and update frequencies can dramatically improve your probability estimates and win rate
Here’s the complete regional breakdown of the best models you should be using
> Global models - work for any city
• ECMWF - the gold standard for global forecasting, best accuracy at 5–10 day horizon
• ECMWF AIFS - AI-powered version of ECMWF, same global coverage, faster updates
• GFS - solid global coverage, free, widely used as baseline
• ICON-Global - reliable global model from DWD, good backup to ECMWF
> USA Canada (LA, NYC, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, SF, Atlanta, Austin, Denver, Seattle)
• HRRR - best short-horizon model for US cities, updates every hour, 3km resolution
• GEM - very strong for both US and Canada
• GFS - solid baseline, pairs well with HRRR
> Europe (London, Paris, Madrid, Milan, Amsterdam, Munich, Warsaw, Helsinki, Istanbul, Ankara, Moscow)
• ICON-EU - the strongest regional model across all of Europe
• AROME - high resolution for Western Europe: France, Spain, Italy, UK
• UKMO - best for London and Northern Europe specifically
• ECMWF - always worth including as the global reference
> Central Europe (Warsaw, Munich, Milan, Amsterdam)
• ICON-D2 - highest resolution for Germany, France, Benelux, Poland, Austria, Czech Republic
• ICON-D2 EPS - ensemble version of ICON-D2, gives you probability distribution instead of single forecast. Use this when the market is binary and close to the threshold
> Asia (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Qingdao, Hong Kong, Taipei, Singapore, Jakarta, Manila, Lucknow)
• JMA-GSM - strong across East Asia and Pacific
• JMA-MSM - high resolution specifically for Japan and nearby areas
• ECMWF ICON-Global - best global options for Southeast Asia and South Asia
> Middle East & Africa (Jeddah, Tel Aviv, Cape Town, Karachi)
• ECMWF - dominant choice, no strong regional alternatives here
• GFS - reliable backup
The practical workflow: always start with ECMWF as your anchor. Then layer in the regional model that covers your city. Where you have an ensemble version (ICON-D2 EPS) - use it
A single deterministic forecast tells you the expected value. An ensemble tells you the distribution. For binary threshold markets, the distribution is what actually matters
Save this list. If I missed any models, please feel free to mention them in the replies
May 21
Official Resolution Stations for All Major Polymarket Weather Markets
Every weather market resolves by a specific meteorological station - not by city average or weather apps
Always check the station, never the general city forecast. Full official list below
> North America:
• Los Angeles → KLAX
• New York City → KLGA
• Chicago → KORD
• Dallas → KDAL
• Miami → KMIA
• San Francisco → KSFO
• Atlanta → KATL
• Austin → KAUS
• Denver → KBKF
• Seattle → KSEA
• Mexico City → MMMX
• Panama City → MPMG
> South America:
• Buenos Aires → SAEZ
• Sao Paulo → SBGR
> Europe:
• London → EGLC
• Paris → LFPB
• Madrid → LEMD
• Milan → LIMC
• Amsterdam → EHAM
• Munich → EDDM
• Warsaw → EPWA
• Helsinki → EFHK
• Istanbul → LTFM
• Ankara → LTAC
• Moscow → UUWW
> Middle East & Africa:
• Jeddah → OEJN
• Tel Aviv → LLBG
• Cape Town → FACT
• Karachi → OPKC
> Asia:
• Beijing → ZBAA
• Shanghai → ZSPD
• Guangzhou → ZGGG
• Shenzhen → ZGSZ
• Chengdu → ZUUU
• Chongqing → ZUCK
• Wuhan → ZHHH
• Qingdao → ZSQD
• Hong Kong → HK Observatory
• Taipei → RCSS
• Singapore → WSSS
• Jakarta → WIHH
• Manila → RPLL
• Lucknow → VILK
Polymarket resolves strictly by the data from these specific stations
If the station shows 34°C and your weather app shows 31°C - the market will resolve at 34°C
Save this list. Always verify the official station before entering any weather market
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The weather market recently saw a huge drop in liquidity, and the last 2 days certainly won't help.
Yes, we can increase the rewards, but that doesn't attract weather traders who will actually stick around.
What I think is the real root of the problem?
Information asymmetry between pro and newb 👇 (1/10)
@Polymarket @PolymarketTrade
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Securebet retweeted
Apr 16
From $4,000 to $20,000 on Weather Trading on Polymarket
I was scrolling through Polymarket Leaderboard and found a pretty interesting profile.
Profile: [polymarket.com/@securebet?r=…]
The guy goes by the name [securebet] and he mostly trades weather markets.
It’s not some crazy hype story, just a very consistent approach to prediction markets.
He’s been around since July 2024 and has already made over 3,800 trades.
Here is what his stats look like right now:
Total Profit: $20,079
Total Gains: $26,567
Global Rank: #5,951
Win Rate: 57.0%
I took a look at his recent history to see how he actually makes money.
He mostly trades on temperature ranges in different cities, and the ROIs are wild.
Top trades:
> Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?
Entry price: 13.9c Invested: $640 Profit: $550 86%
> NYC Temp: 48°F or higher on March 1st?
Entry price: 49.9c Invested: $692 Profit: $523 75.7%
> Seattle Temp: between 48-49°F on January 10th?
Entry price: 0.9c Invested: $5.33 Profit: $438 8,232%
> NYC Temp: 37°F or higher on Dec 31st?
Entry price: 21.9c Invested: $99.95 Profit: $327 328%
> Seattle Temp: between 48-49°F on February 28th?
Entry price: 96.4c Invested: $409.88 Profit: $319 78%
> NYC Temp: between 55-56°F on February 27th?
Entry price: 3.8c Invested: $12.62 Profit: $293 2,322%
You can copy all him trades so simple with best tg bot on Polymarket - Polygun
Connect and copy: [t.me/PolyGunSniperBot?start=…]
It seems like weather markets are becoming a real thing on Polymarket lately.
While everyone is focused on crypto prices, people are making money just by checking the forecast.
The liquidity is there, and the opportunities for high returns look pretty solid.
Might be a good time to start looking into these markets yourself.
Apr 16
GUIDE HOW TO EARN MONEY ON WEATHER
> Here’s a simple, fun way: trade weather markets on Polymarket.
> Turn sunny days, rainy forecasts, and temperature swings into daily profits.
> No boring charts. No 24/7 stress. Just real-world weather smart bets.
> Step 1: Register on Polymarket (super easy, takes 2 minutes).
> Sing Up > [polymarket.com/event/highest…]
> Connect your wallet or email and you’re ready to play.
> Step 2: Go to the Weather markets.
> Choice any city you like - for example Seoul
> Step 3: Check the real weather forecast.
> Look at the expected highest temperature for tomorrow or the next days.
> Step 4: Find the outcome that feels most likely.
> Buy Yes shares if the crowd is underpricing reality.
> Or go bold, odds on the unlikely outcome when you see real edge.
> Either way, you’re not just guessing. You’re playing with knowledge.
> Every correct move can bring you 10-50% on small positions.
> Even with a tiny deposit, you can grow it consistently.
> Weather markets are on fire right now.
> Hundreds of daily markets on temperatures, rain, extremes.
> Traders are quietly shifting from crypto and politics to weather.
> It’s calmer, more predictable, and surprisingly profitable.
> Imagine waking up, checking the forecast like a pro, and earning while the sun shines.
> No office. No boss. Just you, nature, and smart decisions.
> This is freedom: combine curiosity about the world with real money.
> Get pleasure from life every single day.
> Watch the sky, feel the vibe, and let the markets reward you.
> Start small. Learn fast. Compound the wins.
> The weather never stops changing and neither do your opportunities.
> Who’s ready to turn everyday forecasts into income?
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Securebet retweeted
Apr 18
Win rate lies.
This guy didn't know win rate was supposed to matter.
So he made $20K winning one out of three trades.
securebet. 3,809 predictions. Weather markets only.
2,360 losses. 1,571 wins.
He buys contracts at 1 to 5 cents. Most of them die. The ones that hit pay 50x, 90x, 200x.
Biggest single trade:
> 9,244% ROI on a 1.1c NYC weather contract.
> Seattle NO at 0.9c: 8,232% ROI.
Losing 6 out of 10 trades feels awful. Until you check the PnL.
Proof: polymarket.com/@securebet?r=…
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May 14
Coming back strong after a few days off! 🚀
As shown in imagenpng, I locked in a total win of $145.31 on Polymarket The highlight was the Seoul trade: turning $39.56 into $134 for a massive 240% return! Also hit a solid 170% on London
Discipline and data pay off. We’re back
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✅ ¡GRAN VICTORIA EN POLYMARKET! 📷Hoy cobré mi apuesta📷Mercado: ¿Lowest Nueva York que no estaría entre 58-59°F el 6 de mayo?
Invertido: $527
Ganancia total: $1,113
Beneficio neto: $586 📷unete y gana tambien polymarket.com/?r=securebet #Polymarket #Ganancias #NYCWeather
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Apr 29
I'm number 350,256 on the waitlist for Polymarket Perps. If you want to be early, sign up here: polymarket.com/perps
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1 4 strongest repos for weather trading on Polymarket I found over the last few weeks. They pull $250k per season combined. All free. All open source.
github.com/zostaff/weather-p… -> replaces Bloomberg Weather Terminal 31-member GFS ensemble forecasts. Trades weather temperature markets on both Kalshi (KXHIGH series) and Polymarket simultaneously. Kelly criterion sizing. Signal calibration with Brier score. React dashboard. All data sources free.
github.com/alteregoeth-ai/we… -> replaces "city-center" forecast wrappers that lose money the only weather bot that resolves on actual airport stations. NYC on LaGuardia (KLGA), Dallas on Love Field (KDAL). the difference between airport and city center is 3-8°F. On 1°F bin markets that's the difference between winning and losing. Kelly EV filtering simulation mode.
github.com/hcharper/polyBot-… -> replaces $200/mo statistical arb tools Gaussian distribution model for temperature thresholds. P(>80°F) computed via scipy norm.cdf with NOAA RMSE. Detects 62% edges when market disagrees with physics. Black-Scholes for crypto markets in the same bot. Polymarket CLOB NOAA Pyth network.
github.com/yangyuan-zhen/Pol… -> replaces a full quant research team 60 cities worldwide. Ingests TAF/METAR aviation data, JMA AMeDAS Japan, KMA Korea, HKO Hong Kong. EMOS LGBM models. Calibrated probability engine as primary. multi-day DEB forecast in browser extension. Telegram bot included.
github.com/MoonsatProtocol/P… -> replaces $30/mo prediction platforms TypeScript implementation. NWS forecasts for 6 US cities. Kelly-driven sizing. simulation mode with $1000 paper balance. Simple .env config. one command to run.
like bookmark you'll need this when you stop building from scratch
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A Chinese computer science student built a bot that automatically manages your limit orders on Polymarket to maximize liquidity rewards and released it on GitHub for free…
Here is how it works step by step:
This bot constantly monitors all your active orders, compares them to the live order book and automatically moves them to the most profitable positions for reward farming.
Usually, finding high reward markets is not so difficult, but the real problem is keeping your orders in the reward zone, because these markets are very volatile and prices change every minute.
Normally, u have to sit and manually cancel and replace your orders every time the price moves.
But this bot automates that entire process. It tracks all your open orders, calculates the optimal positions for farming, and moves them instantly whenever the market changes.
For example, lets say you have a BUY order at 0.45. The current best bid is 0.44 and the best ask is 0.48, so the mid price is 0.46. The reward zone (max spread) is 0.04 (meaning the reward range is 0.42-0.46).
This way, the bot determines that your current position is too close to the mid price, risking a bad fill. It calculates that the optimal position in this scenario is 0.44 - the centre of the reward zone.
Then, it automatically cancels your 0.45 order and places a new one at 0.44 (further from the mid price to better balance risk and rewards).
This bot performs all these actions in seconds every time the price moves, without any human involvement.
The main goal is to constantly keep your orders in the reward zone without taking unnecessary risks.
GitHub: github.com/lihanyu81/polymar…
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Apr 25
¡$210 al bolsillo! 💸 En @Polymarket los datos pagan. Solo hay que saber leer el clima. ¡Únete y ganemos juntos! 📈✨ #Polymarket #Trading #Win💸
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Apr 24
Welcome to the new "The Lowest Temp" market on Polymarket! 🌡️📉 Ready to predict the cold? Join the game and start trading now! ❄️
Follow me: @securebet 🚀
#Polymarket #Trading #Weather
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Securebet retweeted
Apr 24
new market lowest nyc, not bad.
join to polymarket now
polymarket.com/?r=WeatherGod
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Apr 24
I just won $63.38 on @Polymarket! check the new market the lowest temperature in polymarket is very interesting
Join me and put your money where your mouth is: polymarket.com/redeem/eyJwcm…
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Apr 11
I just won $390.84 on @Polymarket!
Join me and put your money where your mouth is: polymarket.com/redeem/eyJwcm…
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Securebet retweeted
Mar 31
A trader turned $200 into $20,000 in just two month on Polymarket
Account: polymarket.com/profile/@se…
The formula is simple:
Properly configured artificial intelligence
The weather forecast market on Polymarket
Full control of the account by the AI agent
To make money, all you need to do is copy trade this account: polymarket.com/profile/@se…
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Mar 29
I just won 216.88 on @Polymarket!
Join with this link polymarket.com/?r=securebet
Join me and put your money where your mouth is: polymarket.com/redeem/eyJwcm…
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Mar 28
Tired of just watching the news? Put your knowledge to the test on Polymarket! 🔮
Bet on politics, sports, and pop culture with the world’s largest prediction market. 📈
Secure your edge here: 👉 polymarket.com/?r=securebet
#Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #Crypto #Web3
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Mar 15
I just won 183.45 on @Polymarket!
Join me and put your money where your mouth is: polymarket.com/redeem/eyJwcm…
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