Risk Assessment and Compliance Statement Initial Flip-Risk Assessment (ACs 76-100): Four constituencies in this batch are flagged as "Flip-Risk" due to a projected margin of victory below 3.0 percentage points. AC 77 - Mahishi: A marginal JD(U) hold from 2020, this seat is experiencing high anti-incumbency. The MGB is well-positioned to leverage its traditional Yadav vote base to reclaim the constituency, making it a prime flip target. AC 86 - Keoti: This seat flipped from RJD to BJP in 2020 by a narrow margin. With a significant Muslim-Yadav population and reports of local anti-incumbency against the NDA incumbent, the MGB is strongly positioned to win it back. AC 92 - Sakra (SC): A narrow JD(U) win in 2020, this reserved seat is facing high anti-incumbency. The MGB's focused campaign to consolidate Dalit and EBC votes makes this a highly unpredictable and low-confidence contest. AC 93 - Kurhani: This seat has a history of extremely close contests, flipping from RJD to BJP in a recent by-election. The outcome will be determined by marginal shifts in EBC and upper-caste consolidation, making it a quintessential toss-up. #BiharDecoded #DecodingBihar #BiharElections #BiharPredictions #Bihar2025 #BiharElectoralLandscape #BiharElectionDynamics #BiharComplexInterplay #MgrLens #BiharCasteDynamics