COT Report - Apr 21, 2026
Three correlated ag markets hit 99th percentile net long simultaneously this week:
🌾 Cotton - Z-score 4.32, 25% of open interest net long, 13-week sustained build
🫘 Soybean Oil - 99th percentile in both 2Y and 10Y windows, commercials hedging 53% of OI
🌿 Soybean Meal - 99th percentile 2Y, position still growing ( 117k → 136k over 4 weeks)
When three related markets crowd to the same extreme at once, the risk isn't any single position, it's correlation. One macro catalyst (dollar, demand shock, policy shift) and all three reprice together.
Also notable: AUD at 98th percentile over 10 years. Not just crowded relative to recent history, crowded relative to the full decade.
Full breakdown interactive dashboard 👇
cotdata net