Week in Review:
YTD Perf 25.2%
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$SU (trim)
$MPC (exit)
$CPB (exit)
adds to
$GIS $NOMD $CAG $KHC $XOM in that order
Rebalance commentary:
CPG
The Rynok Insight portfolio isn't the only one to add to CPG lately, though it may have gone the heaviest. I'm not going to regurgitate what's already been written as there's no value in that. We'll look at some key considerations for the weighting and inclusion of companies now that we're more or less rebalanced. For supplemental reading,
@NuggetCapital has a fantastic blog post from June 4th that makes for a solid primer on the opportunity, historical trends, notes on various companies. If you'd like to see broad comparisons of shareholder yield, my man
@calvinfroedge has plenty of posts on opportunities he's bullish on.
My take is the sector is oversold, with its real headwinds more than priced-in, offering an attractive opportunity relative to the risk presented. Commodity price and supply chain risk is ever present, but these companies are more than cognizant of it and actively manage these challenges.
$GIS You come at the king, you best not miss. I'm a big fan of not only the portfolio, but the company's concurrent prowess in balance sheet management. Debt is rising QoQ (but we'll double-click on that) and the buyback program ate it. This keeps normies out that take it at face value rather than spending some time to understand the "Why?".
This quarter management issued just under $2B of callable hybrid 30Y EUR notes with 4.75-5.25% coupons and resets in '31 and '34. That's ~1/7th of the debt stack with maturity pushed out dramatically, while refinancing some near-term floating rate exposure at a competitive rate for the structure.
This drove up debt modestly on net but pro forma reduces current debt by about $0.8B, serious breathing room for ongoing high-return organic and inorganic portfolio shaping, while giving the team more flexibility to continue balance sheet optimization in the coming quarters. It's the leg work for sustainable long-term returns to shareholders that doesn't look super sexy.
I felt it's a great opportunity to bite at what I see as an iconic laggard while shareholder yield is temporarily depressed (single-digit) compared to the sexiest story in the space, Nomad Foods. Among the CPG opportunities this one requires perhaps more patience, but offers up one hell of a brand portfolio that is becoming higher quality, more durable, and with a better balance sheet at a time the space is unloved-to-hated.
$NOMD I won't spend a lot of time on this one.
@NuggetCapital has done a better job writing it up than I'll be able to. It's Europe's frozen foods giant and the sexiest story in the space. There's no junk food baggage like Campbell's, top-notch insider ownership, insider buying, shareholder alignment, improving balance sheet, and the valuation gap to peers will close whether through share price appreciation or acquisition by a peer or private equity.
$CAG has insider buying (not nearly as much as Nomad) and substantial progress on the balance sheet meeting a dividend that should be cut and retail investors focusing on Chef Boyardee (divested, they don't even own it anymore) instead of the company's frozen and refrigerated foods core engine and trend-advantaged snacks segment. Cash flow is being directed towards deleveraging which could be accelerated through a dividend cut. FCF conversion is up and divestitures of weak brands have accelerated deleveraging, taking some pressure off the cut, but it's still a bit silly.
Snacks have been eating it due to GLP-1 and health trends but high-protein and/or fiber-rich offerings in sunflower seeds, popcorn, and meat snacks compare favorably both in recent performance and future prospects to peers like Campbell's potato chips, pretzels, and snack crackers.
Shareholder yield is in the low 20s, with the lion's share being debt reduction. A dividend cut would only increase that share and with time open the door to buybacks.
$KHC among the four CPG positions I have the least confidence in the Kraft-Heinz portfolio's long-term prospects and this is going to be the first position to be liquidated on opportunity cost or a substantial return on investment. Key takeaways here are insider (CEO) buying, the most robust (and improving) balance sheet among the bunch, bottom barrel EV/FCF valuation, and a strong, stable core of taste elevation (condiments, spreads, etc).
The merger of Kraft and Heinz should have never happened. Berkshire and 3G capital took a private equity approach to public markets and just like everything private equity, it forged a massive piece of shit. On the plus side, new investment in innovation and reinvigoration of the portfolio should be low-hanging fruit for better comps. I don't believe that reinvestment and innovation has any long-term potential.
The stock closed Friday above its 200DMA for the first time since October 2024 and appears to have the strongest bottom technically among depressed CPG names, if you give technical analysis any credence.
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$CPB story of opportunity cost. There may be some outperformance due to short-covering now that the name has been removed from the S&P 500 index and on rotation back into the sector, but the opportunity costs are better turnaround stories in Conagra and Nomad, higher quality portfolios in those General Mills, better long-term prospects in the prior, or stronger shot-term technicals on better balance sheet quality in Kraft-Heinz. This one will probably take more patience than General Mills and the ride is likely to be less pleasant, but it's still more attractive than orbital weed farms or whatever the index is rebalancing to.
Energy
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$SU taking more profits to bring integrated oil exposure to 19.4% weight. The Petro-Canada franchise and Suncor's refining assets are truly a jewel. I don't want overweight upstream exposure and believe the intermediate-term price of WTI is more likely to settle in the mid-60s to 70 rather than 80s and so positioning has been adjusted accordingly.
$XOM this was just a minor rebalance to keep integrated oil exposure where it is. Exxon's upstream:downstream balance, refining and marketing business, world-class petrochemical business, and stellar corporate stewardship position it well to deal with the chaos of a post-Hormuz production free-for-all into a market challenged by refining capacity, though I feel valuation is at a premium here.
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$MPC removal flat to right size energy on Monday. Haven't been at ease with this one and may revisit Exxon's weight in it's favor. The price is right, but you pay for it by missing upstream integration. Robust refining tailwinds and a buyback machine are attractive on a relative, though not absolute basis, and so the desired net upstream exposure of the portfolio is the big question here. Stay tuned.
Tenaz Energy remains unchanged after heavy adds in recent weeks.
I'll catch up on broader market commentary in next week's writeup. Thank you for your readership as always and I hope that you and yours have a wonderful week ahead!