The Hormuz blockade is lifting and the strait goes toll-free, so the tanker war-risk premium finally starts to come off. Slowly though. ADNOC sees full flows only by 2027, the threat board still reads severe, Iran keeps charging tolls. Forward rates lower, not collapsing.
Dry freight has the opposite problem, and the deal does nothing for it. The Baltic dry index sank to 2,720 Monday, a five-week low, off its 2.5-year high of 3,227. The driver is China sitting on a near-record ore pile and drawing from it instead of chartering fresh cargoes, the summer lull on top. A peace deal in the Gulf doesn't put a single capesize back to work.
Two freight markets sitting heavy for opposite reasons. The wet one deflates as the war-risk drains over the coming months. The dry one stays down because mills are working off the pile, not the berth, and no Gulf deal changes that. When they meet it's the tanker grinding down to the cape, not the cape climbing to the tanker. Watch the freight.