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Anthropic CEO explains why AGI is financially treacherous. Massive upfront costs mean a 10x growth bet can flip from trillion-dollar upside to instant bankruptcy if you’re even slightly wrong. #AI #AGI #DataCenters #FinancialRisk #TechBubble #CapitalIntensity #SystemicRisk
Feb 13
Dwarkesh asks Dario a fantastic question relating to how he is so bullish on AGI yet so conservative on data center build out - Dario has an amazing take on this: Dario Amodei details the staggering financial risk of the AI race, explaining that if growth continues at 10x a year, a company could be looking at a $1 trillion revenue run rate by the end of 2027. He notes that to support this, a firm might buy $5 trillion worth of compute. However, he highlights a "ruinous" dilemma: if that revenue is even slightly lower than projected. specifically if it comes in at $800 billion instead of $1 trillion the company would collapse. He explains that if you are off by just a year or if the growth rate drops to 5x, "there's no force on earth, there's no hedge on earth, that could stop me from going bankrupt" after committing to that level of spend. Because of this, Amodei argues that "behaving responsibly" means not just "yoloing" hundreds of billions of dollars. He suggests that some competitors may not have "written down the spreadsheet" and don't fully grasp the existential risks they are taking with these massive, unhedged bets on infrastructure.
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ICYMI πŸ“½ George Ogilvie, P.Eng. interview with the CEO BBQ youtu.be/Lsl4-rx1RnQ?t=3951 Valued on the PEA, which is 2.5 yrs old now, yet we anticipate a transformational PFS in 1Q24 βœ… #jurisdiction βœ… #expertise βœ… #engineering βœ… #permits βœ… #grade βœ… #capitalintensity βœ… #copper

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Worldwide, more capital is now needed to generate the same amount of revenue, which generates lower profits. mck.co/3cWDdja #EconomicProfit #FutureOfAsia #CapitalIntensity
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Globally, ROIC declined from 11.0 to 7.8 percent, between 2005–07 and 2015–17. During the same period, invested capital grew at almost double the rate of revenue growth, boosting capital intensity from 0.8 to 1.1. mck.co/2HsOQ2U #FutureOfAsia #ROIC #CapitalIntensity
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5 Jan 2017
#Australian #solar #capitalintensity has fallen to half the value operating solar farms were built for in 2015/16 lnkd.in/gkt97_J

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