I try hard every day not to be paralysed by the latest publications on our cryosphere, but today I just can't.
Aaron Cremona and colleagues just published yesterday in The Cryosphere, a paper tracking daily mass balance for every single one of the 1400 glaciers in the Swiss alps from 2010 to 2024.
!! The result is heartbreaking: in 15 years, the Swiss glaciers have lost on average almost 25% of their 2010 volume. /
We are truly entering a new era in Glaciology. So much so that now it is accepted to talk about the upcoming peak glacier extinction.
In Nature Climate Change, Lander Van Tricht et al., introduce the new concept. It is basically the year in which the largest number of glaciers will disappear. At the moment, the paper says that we lose around 750-800 glaciers per year already (!). Global peak exctinction will happen somewhere between 2041 and 2055, with 4000 glaciers lost per year.
It's basically like losing all the glaciers in the Alps ever year.
But here is what is interesting, this peak extinction
depends on what we decide today.
→ At 1.5°C, peak hits around 2041 at around 2,000 glaciers per year. Nearly 50% of today's glaciers still stand in 2100.
→ At 2.7°C, roughly where current national pledges still place us only ~ 20% remain by 2100.
• At 4°C, fewer than 10% survive. In Europe, almost no glaciers would be left.
So.
There you have it.
Limiting warming to 1.5°C more than doubles the number of glaciers that survive the century.
We are starting the UNESCO Decade of Cryosphere, let's make sure it does not become the decade of peak extinction for our mountain glaciers.
A photo of the Trient Glacier, the first glacier 1 ever studied during my younger years, taken in 1891 held up at the same location on Aug. 26, 2019. Denis Balibouse, ETH Library Zurich via Reuters